Direct answer: FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) at fred.stlouisfed.org is the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's public database of 800,000+ economic time series from 100+ sources, including the Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA, Census Bureau, and international organizations. It provides free, downloadable data on GDP, inflation, employment, interest rates, money supply, and financial market conditions. For investors, FRED is the primary source for verifying macroeconomic conditions and historical context.
FRED Economic Data: A Source Guide for Investors
Key Takeaways
- FRED's most-used series for investors: FEDFUNDS (Federal Funds Rate), CPIAUCSL (CPI), UNRATE (unemployment rate), DGS10 (10-year Treasury yield), T10YIE (10-year breakeven inflation rate), and GDP.
- FRED provides not just current data but full historical time series going back decades or centuries for many series, enabling comparison of current conditions to historical norms.
- FRED API (fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/) allows programmatic access to all series; no registration required for basic API use.
- The 10-year breakeven inflation rate (T10YIE) derived from TIPS vs. nominal Treasury yields is the market's implied inflation expectation, a key input for bond valuation.
- FRED's GDPNow and GDPNow Models page (atlantafed.org) tracks real-time GDP growth estimates between official BEA releases, updated with each new economic data release.
Key Series for Equity Investors
For equity investors tracking macroeconomic conditions, the most relevant FRED series are: SP500 (S&P 500 index level, monthly), DSPIC96 (real disposable personal income, tracks consumer spending capacity), HOUST (housing starts, a leading economic indicator), PCEC96 (real personal consumption expenditures), and UMCSENT (University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment). ISM manufacturing (series NAPM) and non-manufacturing (series NMFCI) are available; these survey-based indices are leading indicators of economic momentum. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) aggregates 85 monthly indicators into one macro momentum measure.
Key Series for Fixed Income and Rate Investors
For fixed income investors, FRED's most-used series: FEDFUNDS (daily Fed Funds rate, the policy rate), DFF (effective federal funds rate, what the market actually trades at), DGS2 (2-year Treasury yield), DGS10 (10-year Treasury yield), T10Y2Y (10-year minus 2-year spread, a common recession indicator), T10YIE (10-year breakeven inflation, market-implied inflation), and MORTGAGE30US (30-year fixed mortgage rate). The yield curve series (SVENY series) provide zero-coupon yields across maturities for yield curve shape analysis.
Key Series for Inflation Analysis
For inflation analysis: CPIAUCSL (headline CPI, all urban consumers), CPILFESL (core CPI, excluding food and energy), PCEPI (PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure), PCEPILFE (core PCE, the Fed's primary inflation target measure), MICH (University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations), and T5YIE (5-year breakeven inflation). The PCE and CPI measure inflation differently; the Fed targets core PCE at 2%. Understanding why PCE and CPI sometimes diverge (different weights, different methodology for healthcare and housing) requires reading the BLS and BEA methodological notes.
Using FRED for Historical Context
FRED's value for investors extends beyond current data to historical comparison. Examples: compare current yield curve inversion depth to prior inversions before recessions (T10Y2Y series back to 1976); compare current 10-year TIPS yield (DFII10) to prior periods to assess real rate levels; track the historical relationship between the Conference Board Leading Economic Index and subsequent GDP growth. FRED's 'Add Data Series' function allows plotting multiple series on one chart. The FRED blog (fredblog.stlouisfed.org) provides context on current economic data with charts generated from FRED, useful for understanding what a specific data release means in context.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FRED data the same as the original source data?
FRED aggregates data from many source agencies (BLS, BEA, Census, Federal Reserve H.15 release, etc.). For most series, FRED's data matches the original source exactly and is updated when the source revises its figures. For verification of a specific figure, cross-reference with the source agency's own publication, but for practical research FRED is reliable and the citation should still identify the original agency (e.g., BLS via FRED).
How often is FRED data updated?
Update frequency varies by series. Daily financial data (interest rates, exchange rates) updates on each business day. Monthly economic series (CPI, employment, retail sales) updates within days of the source agency's release. Quarterly series (GDP, corporate profits) updates following BEA releases, typically 3 to 6 weeks after quarter end. Annual series (some demographic and tax data) updates once per year.
Are there alternative databases similar to FRED for international data?
Yes. The World Bank's FRED-equivalent is the World Development Indicators database (data.worldbank.org). The IMF publishes the World Economic Outlook Database (imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases). The OECD Data Portal (data.oecd.org) covers developed economies with standardized definitions. The BIS (bis.org/statistics) provides cross-border banking, debt securities, and derivatives statistics.