Research Lab

Scenario Analyses

• Early Retirement and Sequence-of-Returns Risk
• Tax-Loss Harvesting Case Study
• New Job 401(k) Rollover Decision
• Inheriting an IRA
• First Brokerage Account Setup
• What if Credit Spreads Widen Sharply?
• What Happens if Stocks Fall 30%? A Portfolio Stress Scenario
• What if Inflation Averages 5% for Three Years?
• What Happens to a Portfolio if Rates Rise 2 Percentage Points?
• What if the U.S. Dollar Falls 15%?

Fact Sheets

• Fact Sheet: Index Funds
• Fact Sheet: REITs
• Fact Sheet: Dollar-Cost Averaging
• Fact Sheet: Market Capitalization
• Fact Sheet: Bond Duration
• Drawdown Fact Sheet
• Duration Fact Sheet: What It Measures and What It Does Not
• Free Cash Flow Fact Sheet
• Tracking Difference Fact Sheet
• Yield Curve Fact Sheet

Comparison Matrices

• Roth vs. Traditional IRA
• ETF vs. Mutual Fund
• Growth vs. Value Investing
• Active vs. Passive Investing
• Stocks vs. Bonds
• Taxable vs. Tax-Advantaged Accounts
• Individual Bond vs. Bond Fund: Comparison Matrix
• Money Market Fund vs. Bank Savings Account: Comparison Matrix
• Roth IRA vs. Traditional IRA: Mechanics-Only Comparison Matrix
• Target-Date Fund vs. Balanced Fund: Comparison Matrix
• Treasury Bills vs. Bank CDs: Comparison Matrix

Mistake Labs

• Selling Winners Too Early
• Overconfidence in Stock Picking
• Anchoring to Purchase Price
• Neglecting Tax Drag
• Recency Bias in Asset Allocation
• Anchoring to Your Purchase Price
• Ignoring Taxes Until After the Trade
• Overtrading: When Activity Becomes the Objective
• Performance Chasing: The Mistake of Buying the Rear-View Mirror
• Confusing Yield With Return

Research Protocols

• Evaluating a Stock Before Buying
• Reading an Earnings Report
• Analyzing a Company Balance Sheet
• Screening for Value Stocks
• Sizing a Position
• Bond-Fund Due-Diligence Protocol
• Dividend Sustainability Verification Protocol
• ETF Due-Diligence Protocol
• A Primary-Source Protocol for Reading a 10-K
• REIT Research Protocol: Property to Capital Structure

Data Methodologies

• How Index Returns Are Calculated
• How ETF NAV Is Calculated
• How Major Economic Indicators Are Constructed
• How Credit Ratings Are Assigned
• How Volatility Is Measured in Financial Markets
• How CPI Is Built: A Swoopr Data Methodology Page
• How to Store FRED Series Without Losing Context
• How GDP Data Should Be Read and Versioned
• SEC Companyfacts Data: What the API Gives You and What It Does Not
• Total Return Calculation Methodology

Forecast Scorecards

• Analyst Earnings Estimates
• Interest Rate Predictions
• Recession Predictions
• Stock Market Predictions
• Commodity Price Predictions
• Analyst Earnings Forecast Scorecard: Methodology
• Federal Reserve Projection Scorecard: Methodology
• Inflation Forecast Scorecard: Methodology
• Price-Target Accuracy Scorecard: Methodology
• Recession Forecast Scorecard: Methodology

Investment Checklists

• Before You Buy a Stock
• Annual Portfolio Review
• Evaluating a Mutual Fund or ETF
• Reading an Annual Report
• Opening a Brokerage Account
• Before You Buy an ETF: Evidence Checklist
• Before You Buy an I Bond: Evidence Checklist
• Before You Buy a Single Stock: Evidence Checklist
• Before You Reach for Yield: Evidence Checklist
• Before You Use a Stop Order: Evidence Checklist

Post-Mortems and Autopsies

• Why 'Buy the Dip' Can Fail Without a Decision Rule
• Autopsy of a Concentrated Growth Portfolio
• Autopsy of a Covered-Call Income Portfolio
• Autopsy of a Crypto Yield Strategy
• Why a High-Yield-Chasing Portfolio Can Fail
• Autopsy of an Illiquid Alternative Investment
• Autopsy of a Long-Term Leveraged ETF Hold
• Why Owning Many Funds Can Still Leave a Portfolio Concentrated
• Why a Stop-Loss Plan Can Fail in a Fast Market
• Why Volatility Targeting Can Deleverage at the Worst Time

Evidence Reviews

• What the Evidence Says About Diversification
• Dividend Yield Is Not Total Return: An Evidence Review
• What the Evidence Says About Investment Fees
• What the Evidence Says About Market Timing
• What the Evidence Says About Rebalancing

Failure Patterns

• Failure Pattern: Home Country Bias
• Failure Pattern: Mental Accounting
• Failure Pattern: Overtrading
• Failure Pattern: Panic Selling
• Failure Pattern: Performance Chasing
• Concentration Disguised by Fund Count
• Hidden Correlation: Why Diversification Can Disappear in Stress
• The Leverage Feedback Loop: How Small Losses Become Forced Sales
• Liquidity Mismatch: When the Asset and the Promise Do Not Line Up
• The Refinancing Wall: When Maturity Becomes the Risk

Source Guides

• FINRA BrokerCheck: A Source Guide for Investors
• FRED Economic Data: A Source Guide for Investors
• SEC EDGAR: A Source Guide for Investors
• TreasuryDirect: A Source Guide for Direct Government Bond Investors
• How to Read GDP Data From the Bureau of Economic Analysis
• How to Read CPI Data From the Bureau of Labor Statistics
• How to Use FRED Without Misreading the Series
• How to Use SEC EDGAR as a Primary Source
• How to Use TreasuryDirect for Treasury and Savings-Bond Research

Diagnostics

• Why Is My Portfolio So Volatile? A Diagnostic Guide
• Why Did This Investment Lose Money? A Post-Loss Diagnostic
• Am I on Track for Retirement? A Diagnostic Checklist
• Why Is My Portfolio Underperforming? A Diagnostic Tree
• Why Am I Not Saving Enough? A Behavioral and Structural Diagnostic

Decision Guides

• Individual Bonds or a Bond Fund? A Decision Guide
• Lump Sum or Dollar-Cost Averaging? Frame the Decision Correctly
• Market Order or Limit Order? Choose Based on the Failure You Can Accept
• Money Market Fund or Bank Savings Account? What Actually Changes
• TIPS or I Bonds? A Decision Guide Built Around the Constraints

Myth vs. Fact

• Myth vs. Fact: Diversification
• Myth vs. Fact: Dollar-Cost Averaging
• Myth vs. Fact: Passive Investing
• Myth vs. Fact: Real Estate as an Investment
• Myth vs. Fact: Stock Market Predictions
• Myth: Bonds Cannot Lose Money
• Myth: A High Dividend Yield Means Safer Income
• Myth: The Lowest Expense Ratio Always Means the Cheapest ETF
• Myth: More Funds Automatically Means More Diversification
• Myth: A Stop-Loss Order Guarantees Your Maximum Loss

What Changed

• What Changed: 401(k) Contribution Limits and Rules
• What Changed: U.S. Cryptocurrency Regulation
• What Changed: ETF Regulation and Structure
• What Changed: Money Market Fund Reforms (2024)
• What Changed: Capital Gains Tax Rates
• What Changed When I Bonds Became Electronic-Only?
• What Changed in the SEC's 2023 Money Market Fund Reforms?
• What Changed in Rule 10b5-1 Trading Plans?
• What Changed in Public-Company Cybersecurity Disclosures?
• What Changed When U.S. Securities Settlement Moved to T+1?

Diagnostic Trees

• Why Did My Bond Fund Fall When Rates Rose? A Diagnostic Tree
• Why Did My Cash Yield Change? A Cash-Return Diagnostic Tree
• Why Did a Company Cut Its Dividend? A Diagnostic Tree
• Why Is My Portfolio More Volatile Than I Expected?
• Why Did My ETF Underperform Its Index? A Diagnostic Tree

Narrative vs. Data

News Impact Assessments

Plain-Language Glossaries

Portfolio Pressure Tests