Research Lab
Structured research resources for independent investors: scenario analyses, fact sheets, comparison matrices, checklists, mistake labs, research protocols, data methodologies, and forecast scorecards.
Scenario Analyses
- Early Retirement and Sequence-of-Returns Risk
- Tax-Loss Harvesting Case Study
- New Job 401(k) Rollover Decision
- Inheriting an IRA
- First Brokerage Account Setup
- What if Credit Spreads Widen Sharply?
- What Happens if Stocks Fall 30%? A Portfolio Stress Scenario
- What if Inflation Averages 5% for Three Years?
- What Happens to a Portfolio if Rates Rise 2 Percentage Points?
- What if the U.S. Dollar Falls 15%?
Fact Sheets
- Fact Sheet: Index Funds
- Fact Sheet: REITs
- Fact Sheet: Dollar-Cost Averaging
- Fact Sheet: Market Capitalization
- Fact Sheet: Bond Duration
- Drawdown Fact Sheet
- Duration Fact Sheet: What It Measures and What It Does Not
- Free Cash Flow Fact Sheet
- Tracking Difference Fact Sheet
- Yield Curve Fact Sheet
Comparison Matrices
- Roth vs. Traditional IRA
- ETF vs. Mutual Fund
- Growth vs. Value Investing
- Active vs. Passive Investing
- Stocks vs. Bonds
- Taxable vs. Tax-Advantaged Accounts
- Individual Bond vs. Bond Fund: Comparison Matrix
- Money Market Fund vs. Bank Savings Account: Comparison Matrix
- Roth IRA vs. Traditional IRA: Mechanics-Only Comparison Matrix
- Target-Date Fund vs. Balanced Fund: Comparison Matrix
- Treasury Bills vs. Bank CDs: Comparison Matrix
Mistake Labs
- Selling Winners Too Early
- Overconfidence in Stock Picking
- Anchoring to Purchase Price
- Neglecting Tax Drag
- Recency Bias in Asset Allocation
- Anchoring to Your Purchase Price
- Ignoring Taxes Until After the Trade
- Overtrading: When Activity Becomes the Objective
- Performance Chasing: The Mistake of Buying the Rear-View Mirror
- Confusing Yield With Return
Research Protocols
- Evaluating a Stock Before Buying
- Reading an Earnings Report
- Analyzing a Company Balance Sheet
- Screening for Value Stocks
- Sizing a Position
- Bond-Fund Due-Diligence Protocol
- Dividend Sustainability Verification Protocol
- ETF Due-Diligence Protocol
- A Primary-Source Protocol for Reading a 10-K
- REIT Research Protocol: Property to Capital Structure
Data Methodologies
- How Index Returns Are Calculated
- How ETF NAV Is Calculated
- How Major Economic Indicators Are Constructed
- How Credit Ratings Are Assigned
- How Volatility Is Measured in Financial Markets
- How CPI Is Built: A Swoopr Data Methodology Page
- How to Store FRED Series Without Losing Context
- How GDP Data Should Be Read and Versioned
- SEC Companyfacts Data: What the API Gives You and What It Does Not
- Total Return Calculation Methodology
Forecast Scorecards
- Analyst Earnings Estimates
- Interest Rate Predictions
- Recession Predictions
- Stock Market Predictions
- Commodity Price Predictions
- Analyst Earnings Forecast Scorecard: Methodology
- Federal Reserve Projection Scorecard: Methodology
- Inflation Forecast Scorecard: Methodology
- Price-Target Accuracy Scorecard: Methodology
- Recession Forecast Scorecard: Methodology
Investment Checklists
- Before You Buy a Stock
- Annual Portfolio Review
- Evaluating a Mutual Fund or ETF
- Reading an Annual Report
- Opening a Brokerage Account
- Before You Buy an ETF: Evidence Checklist
- Before You Buy an I Bond: Evidence Checklist
- Before You Buy a Single Stock: Evidence Checklist
- Before You Reach for Yield: Evidence Checklist
- Before You Use a Stop Order: Evidence Checklist
Post-Mortems and Autopsies
- Why 'Buy the Dip' Can Fail Without a Decision Rule
- Autopsy of a Concentrated Growth Portfolio
- Autopsy of a Covered-Call Income Portfolio
- Autopsy of a Crypto Yield Strategy
- Why a High-Yield-Chasing Portfolio Can Fail
- Autopsy of an Illiquid Alternative Investment
- Autopsy of a Long-Term Leveraged ETF Hold
- Why Owning Many Funds Can Still Leave a Portfolio Concentrated
- Why a Stop-Loss Plan Can Fail in a Fast Market
- Why Volatility Targeting Can Deleverage at the Worst Time
Evidence Reviews
- What the Evidence Says About Diversification
- Dividend Yield Is Not Total Return: An Evidence Review
- What the Evidence Says About Investment Fees
- What the Evidence Says About Market Timing
- What the Evidence Says About Rebalancing
Failure Patterns
- Failure Pattern: Home Country Bias
- Failure Pattern: Mental Accounting
- Failure Pattern: Overtrading
- Failure Pattern: Panic Selling
- Failure Pattern: Performance Chasing
- Concentration Disguised by Fund Count
- Hidden Correlation: Why Diversification Can Disappear in Stress
- The Leverage Feedback Loop: How Small Losses Become Forced Sales
- Liquidity Mismatch: When the Asset and the Promise Do Not Line Up
- The Refinancing Wall: When Maturity Becomes the Risk
Source Guides
- FINRA BrokerCheck: A Source Guide for Investors
- FRED Economic Data: A Source Guide for Investors
- SEC EDGAR: A Source Guide for Investors
- TreasuryDirect: A Source Guide for Direct Government Bond Investors
- How to Read GDP Data From the Bureau of Economic Analysis
- How to Read CPI Data From the Bureau of Labor Statistics
- How to Use FRED Without Misreading the Series
- How to Use SEC EDGAR as a Primary Source
- How to Use TreasuryDirect for Treasury and Savings-Bond Research
Diagnostics
- Why Is My Portfolio So Volatile? A Diagnostic Guide
- Why Did This Investment Lose Money? A Post-Loss Diagnostic
- Am I on Track for Retirement? A Diagnostic Checklist
- Why Is My Portfolio Underperforming? A Diagnostic Tree
- Why Am I Not Saving Enough? A Behavioral and Structural Diagnostic
Decision Guides
- Individual Bonds or a Bond Fund? A Decision Guide
- Lump Sum or Dollar-Cost Averaging? Frame the Decision Correctly
- Market Order or Limit Order? Choose Based on the Failure You Can Accept
- Money Market Fund or Bank Savings Account? What Actually Changes
- TIPS or I Bonds? A Decision Guide Built Around the Constraints
Myth vs. Fact
- Myth vs. Fact: Diversification
- Myth vs. Fact: Dollar-Cost Averaging
- Myth vs. Fact: Passive Investing
- Myth vs. Fact: Real Estate as an Investment
- Myth vs. Fact: Stock Market Predictions
- Myth: Bonds Cannot Lose Money
- Myth: A High Dividend Yield Means Safer Income
- Myth: The Lowest Expense Ratio Always Means the Cheapest ETF
- Myth: More Funds Automatically Means More Diversification
- Myth: A Stop-Loss Order Guarantees Your Maximum Loss
What Changed
- What Changed: 401(k) Contribution Limits and Rules
- What Changed: U.S. Cryptocurrency Regulation
- What Changed: ETF Regulation and Structure
- What Changed: Money Market Fund Reforms (2024)
- What Changed: Capital Gains Tax Rates
- What Changed When I Bonds Became Electronic-Only?
- What Changed in the SEC's 2023 Money Market Fund Reforms?
- What Changed in Rule 10b5-1 Trading Plans?
- What Changed in Public-Company Cybersecurity Disclosures?
- What Changed When U.S. Securities Settlement Moved to T+1?
Diagnostic Trees
- Why Did My Bond Fund Fall When Rates Rose? A Diagnostic Tree
- Why Did My Cash Yield Change? A Cash-Return Diagnostic Tree
- Why Did a Company Cut Its Dividend? A Diagnostic Tree
- Why Is My Portfolio More Volatile Than I Expected?
- Why Did My ETF Underperform Its Index? A Diagnostic Tree
Narrative vs. Data
- Narrative vs. Data: Active Management
- Narrative vs. Data: Buy the Dip
- Narrative vs. Data: Dividends
- Narrative vs. Data: Economic Moats
- Narrative vs. Data: Market Timing
News Impact Assessments
- News Impact Assessment: Inflation
- News Impact Assessment: Interest Rates
- News Impact Assessment: Tariffs
Plain-Language Glossaries
- Plain-Language Glossary: Behavioral Finance
- Plain-Language Glossary: ETFs
- Plain-Language Glossary: Fixed Income
- Plain-Language Glossary: Macro
- Plain-Language Glossary: Portfolio Construction
- Plain-Language Glossary: Risk
- Plain-Language Glossary: Valuation