Inflation Indicators: Investor Reference

What do Inflation Indicators have in common?

These series all answer one question: how quickly are prices changing, and where in the economy? They fall into five groups. Consumer price series come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and include headline CPI, CPI-W, chained CPI and the category breakdowns for food, energy, shelter, rent, owners' equivalent rent, core goods and core services. Personal consumption expenditures series come from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and cover the headline PCE price index, core PCE, market-based PCE and the goods and services splits.

A third group estimates underlying inflation without choosing categories by hand: the Cleveland Fed median CPI, the Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE, and the Atlanta Fed flexible and sticky CPI. A fourth group captures prices earlier in the supply chain or at the border: the Producer Price Index with its goods, services and core variants, plus import prices and export prices. The fifth group, the GDP deflator and the domestic purchases price index, covers the broad price level in the national accounts and arrives quarterly with GDP.

Used together, the groups separate cause from persistence. A headline reading includes volatile food and energy, so core measures and the median and trimmed-mean series show whether price pressure is broad. The goods versus services and flexible versus sticky splits show where it sits, and the shelter, rent and owners' equivalent rent series isolate the slow-moving housing component, which carries a large weight in CPI.

How do you choose among Inflation Indicators?

• Headline versus core: headline CPI or PCE shows what households paid, while the core versions exclude food and energy and are the usual gauge of the underlying trend.
• CPI versus PCE: CPI and CPI-W are tied to cost-of-living adjustments and are the most quoted. Core PCE is the series to compare with the Federal Reserve's 2 percent objective.
• Persistence: median CPI, trimmed mean PCE and sticky CPI are less moved by single large components, so they suit questions about whether inflation is broad and entrenched.
• Source of pressure: core goods, core services, the supercore proxy, shelter and OER separate goods pricing from labor-intensive services and housing costs.
• Supply-chain context: producer, import and export prices show costs earlier in the chain. Pass-through to consumer prices is partial and uneven, so treat them as context, not as a forecast of CPI.
• Rate of change: monthly changes show momentum but are noisy, while 12-month changes smooth the noise and lag turning points. Check which one a quoted figure uses.

Inflation Indicators at a glance

Indicator	What it measures	Published by	Frequency
Atlanta Fed Flexible CPI	inflation in the CPI components whose prices change frequently	Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta	Monthly
Atlanta Fed Sticky CPI	inflation in the CPI components whose prices change slowly	Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta	Monthly
Chained CPI	consumer price inflation in the United States, adjusted for consumers switching between goods	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly
Cleveland Fed Median CPI	underlying inflation using the median price change across CPI components	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland	Monthly
Core CPI	consumer price inflation in the United States excluding food and energy	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly
Core Goods Inflation	price changes for U.S. consumer goods excluding food and energy	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly
Core PCE	price changes for U.S. personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy	U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis	Monthly
Core PPI	price changes received by U.S. producers for final demand excluding foods, energy and trade services	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly
Core Services Inflation	price changes for U.S. consumer services excluding energy services	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly
CPI	consumer price inflation for urban consumers in the United States	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly
CPI-W	price changes paid by urban wage earners and clerical workers in the United States	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly
Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE	underlying PCE inflation after trimming the most extreme component price changes	Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas	Monthly
Domestic Purchases Price Index	price changes for goods and services bought by U.S. residents, whether produced at home or abroad	U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis	Quarterly
Energy Inflation	price changes for energy goods and services paid by U.S. urban consumers	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly
Export Prices	price changes for goods the United States exports	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly
Food Inflation	price changes for food paid by U.S. urban consumers	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly
GDP Deflator	the average price change for all goods and services produced in the United States	U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis	Quarterly
Import Prices	price changes for goods the United States imports	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly
Market-Based PCE	price changes for consumer spending on items with observable market prices	U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis	Monthly
OER	the rent-equivalent cost of owner-occupied housing within consumer inflation	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly
PCE Goods Inflation	price changes for goods bought by U.S. consumers	U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis	Monthly
PCE Price Index	price changes for goods and services consumed by U.S. households	U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis	Monthly
PCE Services Inflation	price changes for services bought by U.S. consumers	U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis	Monthly
PPI Goods	price changes received by U.S. producers for final demand goods	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly
PPI Services	price changes received by U.S. producers for final demand services	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly
Producer Price Index	price changes received by U.S. producers for final demand goods and services	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly
Rent CPI	changes in rents paid by tenants within consumer inflation	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly
Shelter Inflation	price changes for housing paid by U.S. urban consumers, including rent and owners' equivalent rent	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly
Supercore CPI proxy	consumer price inflation for U.S. services excluding rent of shelter	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Monthly

29 indicator pages are listed. Each row comes from the same source file as the page it links, so the publisher and frequency here match that page.

What limits do Inflation Indicators share?

Price indexes are estimates, not counts. Seasonally adjusted figures are revised as seasonal factors are re-estimated, PCE and the GDP deflator are revised in the Bureau of Economic Analysis annual updates, and producer prices are revised after first publication. Base effects mean a 12-month rate can move because a large change dropped out of the window, not because of the latest month. Weights and methods differ across CPI, PCE and PPI. Rent and owners' equivalent rent respond to market rents with a delay, and any index tracks an average, not one household's experience.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between CPI and PCE inflation?

Both measure consumer price changes, but coverage, weights and formula differ. CPI, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, reflects out-of-pocket spending by urban consumers using household survey weights. PCE, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, also covers spending made on households' behalf, such as employer-paid health care, and reweights as spending shifts. Housing weighs more in CPI. The Federal Reserve states its 2 percent objective in PCE terms.

What does core inflation exclude?

Core CPI and core PCE exclude food and energy, which swing with weather, commodity markets and supply disruptions. Core PPI excludes foods, energy and trade services. The median and trimmed-mean series take a different route: they keep every component but ignore the most extreme price changes. Core measures do not mean food and energy are unimportant to households, only that they are noisy as a guide to trend.

Why do shelter and rent matter so much in CPI?

Shelter, which includes rent and owners' equivalent rent, is the largest single component of CPI, so its pace has a large effect on both headline and core readings. Rent measures are built from housing units that are priced on a rotating basis, so they follow market rents with a delay. That is why analysts also look at inflation excluding rent of shelter, as in the supercore proxy.

Which inflation series get revised?

Seasonally adjusted CPI is revised for earlier months when seasonal factors are updated, while the unadjusted index is not. PCE and the GDP deflator are revised, including in annual updates that can change several years of history. Producer price indexes are revised for several months after first publication. Check whether you are reading a first print or a later vintage.

Are producer prices an early signal of consumer inflation?

They sit earlier in the supply chain, so they are watched for cost pressure that may later reach consumers. The link is loose: producer prices include trade margins, many items are never sold to consumers, and firms can absorb costs in margins. Treat them as context for goods and input costs, not as a forecast of CPI.