Direct Answer
Housing and real estate indicators measure how much housing is being built, how much is selling, what it costs and how it is financed. Most investors start with housing starts, existing home sales and the Case-Shiller index: starts show construction under way, sales show closed transactions, and Case-Shiller shows price change on repeat sales.
Housing and Real Estate Indicators: Investor Reference
This category covers economic indicators in the Housing and Real Estate Indicators area. Each linked indicator page explains the measure's definition, calculation methodology, release schedule and market interpretation in depth.
See the full economic indicators hub for all 15 categories, or the Macro & Market Regimes section for broader context on how these indicators influence market regimes and portfolio positioning.
What do Housing and Real Estate Indicators have in common?
Housing is one of the most interest-rate-sensitive parts of the economy, so the series in this hub answer a chain of questions: can households finance a purchase, are builders breaking ground, are homes selling, and what price are they selling for. The publishers are mainly the Census Bureau, the National Association of Realtors, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Freddie Mac, S&P Dow Jones Indices, the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the National Association of Home Builders.
The construction series follow a project through its stages. Building permits come first, housing starts count projects where excavation has begun, and housing completions count units finished. Single-family starts and multifamily starts split starts by structure type, and residential and nonresidential construction spending value the work actually put in place. Most are Census Bureau series quoted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, so a monthly figure reads as a yearly pace.
The sales and price series divide into new and existing homes. New home sales, new home months of supply and new home median price come from the Census Bureau and HUD, and a sale is counted when a contract is signed. Existing home sales, inventory, median price and pending home sales come from the National Association of Realtors: existing sales count closings, while pending sales count signed contracts that have not yet closed. Case-Shiller and FHFA measure price change on repeat sales of the same properties.
Financing and occupancy complete the picture. The Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate and the Mortgage Bankers Association's mortgage, purchase and refinance application indexes are weekly and are the fastest-moving series here. Homebuilder confidence is a monthly survey of builders, and the homeownership, homeowner vacancy and rental vacancy rates are quarterly Census Bureau estimates of how the housing stock is occupied.
How do you choose among Housing and Real Estate Indicators?
- For where construction is heading, start with building permits, since a permit precedes a start. Use housing starts or single-family starts for work that has actually begun.
- For demand, read pending home sales before existing home sales. Pending counts signed contracts, while existing sales count closings that usually follow contracts by a month or two.
- For prices, prefer Case-Shiller or the FHFA index to median price series. A median shifts with the mix of homes sold, while a repeat-sales index follows the same properties over time.
- For credit conditions, use the weekly mortgage rate and the MBA application indexes, and separate purchase from refinance applications. Refinancing is driven by existing owners and says little about new buyers.
- For the balance of supply and demand, compare inventory with the selling pace. Existing home inventory and new home months of supply both express listings relative to sales, which a raw count of listed homes does not.
- Check coverage before comparing price indexes. FHFA covers mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Case-Shiller 20-City covers twenty metropolitan areas, and the national Case-Shiller index covers all nine census divisions.
Housing and Real Estate Indicators at a glance
| Indicator | What it measures | Published by | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Mortgage Rate | the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States | Freddie Mac | Weekly |
| Building Permits | the number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the United States | U.S. Census Bureau | Monthly |
| Case-Shiller 20-City | changes in home prices across 20 large U.S. metropolitan areas | S&P Dow Jones Indices | Monthly |
| Case-Shiller National HPI | changes in the prices of existing single-family homes across the United States | S&P Dow Jones Indices | Monthly |
| Existing Home Inventory | the number of previously owned homes listed for sale in the United States | National Association of Realtors | Monthly |
| Existing Home Median Price | the median sale price of previously owned homes in the United States | National Association of Realtors | Monthly |
| Existing Home Sales | closed sales of previously owned homes in the United States | National Association of Realtors | Monthly |
| FHFA HPI | changes in single-family home prices measured from repeat sales and refinancings of mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac | Federal Housing Finance Agency | Monthly |
| Homebuilder Confidence | how U.S. single-family homebuilders rate current sales conditions and their expectations | National Association of Home Builders | Monthly |
| Homeowner Vacancy Rate | the share of U.S. homeowner housing units that are vacant and for sale | U.S. Census Bureau | Quarterly |
| Homeownership Rate | the share of occupied U.S. housing units that are occupied by their owners | U.S. Census Bureau | Quarterly |
| Housing Completions | the number of new privately owned housing units completed in the United States | U.S. Census Bureau | Monthly |
| Housing Starts | the number of new privately owned housing units on which construction has begun in the United States | U.S. Census Bureau | Monthly |
| Mortgage Applications | weekly mortgage loan application volume | Mortgage Bankers Association | Weekly |
| Multifamily Starts | new construction starts of multifamily buildings with five or more units | U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Monthly |
| New Home Median Price | the median sale price of new houses sold in the United States | U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Monthly |
| New Home Months of Supply | how many months it would take to sell the current inventory of new homes at the recent sales pace | U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Monthly |
| New Home Sales | sales of newly built single-family houses in the United States | U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Monthly |
| Nonresidential Construction Spending | public and private spending on commercial, industrial and institutional construction | U.S. Census Bureau | Monthly |
| Pending Home Sales | signed contracts on existing homes that have not yet closed | National Association of Realtors | Monthly |
| Purchase Applications | weekly mortgage loan applications to buy a home | Mortgage Bankers Association | Weekly |
| Refinance Applications | weekly mortgage loan applications to refinance an existing home loan | Mortgage Bankers Association | Weekly |
| Rental Vacancy Rate | the share of rental housing units that are vacant and for rent | U.S. Census Bureau | Quarterly |
| Residential Construction Spending | spending on new residential construction and improvements in the United States | U.S. Census Bureau | Monthly |
| Single-Family Starts | the number of new single-family housing units on which construction has begun in the United States | U.S. Census Bureau | Monthly |
25 indicator pages are listed. Each row comes from the same source file as the page it links, so the publisher and frequency here match that page.
What limits do Housing and Real Estate Indicators share?
Most housing series are sample estimates. Monthly changes in starts, new home sales and multifamily starts often fall within sampling error and are revised in later releases, and quarterly vacancy and homeownership rates carry sampling variability, so small moves are frequently not statistically significant. Census series are seasonally adjusted and annualized, while some NAR and price series are not. Case-Shiller is a three-month moving average published with about a two-month lag, so it trails the market, and national price figures can hide wide regional differences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between housing starts and building permits?
Building permits count units authorized by local permit offices, so they come first. Housing starts count units on which construction has actually begun, which the Census Bureau defines as excavation for the foundation. Permits are therefore an earlier signal, while starts show work that is under way. Not every authorized unit becomes a start.
Why do existing home sales trail pending home sales?
Pending home sales count contracts signed on existing homes, and existing home sales count closings. A contract takes weeks to close, so closings reported in one month mostly reflect contracts signed a month or two earlier. Contracts that fall through never show up as closed sales.
Is a median home price the same as the Case-Shiller index?
No. A median price is the midpoint of homes that sold in a period, so it moves with the mix of homes sold as well as with prices. The Case-Shiller index uses repeat sales of the same properties to hold the home constant, but it is a three-month average published with a lag.
Which housing indicators are published weekly?
The Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate and the Mortgage Bankers Association application indexes (composite, purchase and refinance) are weekly. Most other housing series, including permits, starts and sales, are monthly, and the vacancy and homeownership rates are quarterly.
Why are housing starts reported as an annual rate?
The Census Bureau seasonally adjusts the monthly count and scales it to a yearly pace so months of different length and season can be compared. A reading is the number of units that would be started over a year if that month's pace continued, not the units started in that month.