Consumer and Household Indicators: Investor Reference

What do Consumer and Household Indicators have in common?

Household consumption is the largest component of U.S. economic output, so this hub collects the series that describe the household sector: income, spending, saving, borrowing, balance sheets and attitudes. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve Board, the New York Fed, the University of Michigan and The Conference Board each publish a different piece of the picture.

The income and spending series come from the BEA and the Census Bureau. Personal income and disposable personal income measure resources before and after taxes, and personal spending measures purchases. Real disposable income and real consumer spending remove price changes, and the personal saving rate is the share of disposable income not spent. Retail sales, retail sales ex autos and the control group are Census Bureau series that inform the BEA's spending estimates.

The survey series ask households what they think and expect. Consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan and consumer confidence and consumer expectations from The Conference Board use different questions and different baselines, so their levels are not comparable. Inflation expectations come from two surveys: the Michigan 1-year and long-term series, and the New York Fed's 1-year and 3-year series.

The credit and balance sheet series describe borrowing. Consumer credit, revolving credit and nonrevolving credit are monthly Federal Reserve G.19 figures. Household debt, mortgage balances, credit card balances and auto loan balances are quarterly New York Fed figures built from credit bureau records. The debt service ratio and household net worth, both from the Federal Reserve, describe the burden of debt and the value of assets.

How do you choose among Consumer and Household Indicators?

• Use real disposable income and real consumer spending to judge purchasing power and volume of demand. Nominal series such as retail sales and personal spending include the effect of price changes.
• Use the retail sales control group when you want goods spending without volatile categories. It removes autos, gasoline, building materials and food services, while ex autos removes only motor vehicle and parts dealers.
• Read sentiment as attitude and spending as behavior. The two can diverge, so compare survey readings with income and spending data before drawing conclusions.
• Compare each inflation expectations series with its own history and horizon. Michigan reports a median across households with preliminary and final readings, and the New York Fed reports median forecasts from a rotating online panel.
• Separate the size of debt from its burden. Household debt and the balance series are dollar levels, while the debt service ratio divides required payments by disposable income and household net worth nets assets against liabilities.
• Do not mix the two credit sources. The G.19 comes from monthly surveys of lenders and excludes loans secured by real estate, while the New York Fed series are quarterly samples of credit reports that include mortgages.

Consumer and Household Indicators at a glance

Indicator	What it measures	Published by	Frequency
1-Year Inflation Expectations	consumers' expected inflation over the next year	University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers	Monthly
Auto Loan Balances	outstanding household auto loan debt	Federal Reserve Bank of New York	Quarterly
Consumer Confidence	how consumers in the United States rate current conditions and their expectations	The Conference Board	Monthly
Consumer Credit	consumer borrowing in the United States, excluding mortgages and other loans secured by real estate	Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System	Monthly
Consumer Expectations	what U.S. consumers expect for business conditions, jobs and income over the next six months	The Conference Board	Monthly
Consumer Sentiment	how U.S. households view their finances and the economy	University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers	Monthly
Credit Card Balances	the total credit card balances owed by U.S. households	Federal Reserve Bank of New York	Quarterly
Debt Service Ratio	required household debt payments as a share of disposable personal income in the United States	Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System	Quarterly
Disposable Personal Income	the income U.S. households have left to spend or save after taxes	U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis	Monthly
Household Debt	the total debt owed by U.S. households, including mortgages, student loans, auto loans and credit cards	Federal Reserve Bank of New York	Quarterly
Household Net Worth	the assets of U.S. households and nonprofit organizations minus their liabilities	Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System	Quarterly
Long-Term Inflation Expectations	consumers' expected inflation over the next five to ten years	University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers	Monthly
Mortgage Balances	the total amount of outstanding household mortgage debt	Federal Reserve Bank of New York	Quarterly
Nonrevolving Credit	outstanding consumer installment credit such as auto and student loans	Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System	Monthly
NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations	consumer expectations for inflation over the next year	Federal Reserve Bank of New York	Monthly
NY Fed 3-Year Inflation Expectations	consumer expectations for inflation over the next three years	Federal Reserve Bank of New York	Monthly
Personal Income	the income U.S. residents receive from wages, investments, rents and government benefits	U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis	Monthly
Personal Saving Rate	the share of disposable personal income that households save	U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis	Monthly
Personal Spending	what U.S. households spend on goods and services	U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis	Monthly
Real Consumer Spending	what U.S. households spend on goods and services, adjusted for inflation	U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis	Monthly
Real Disposable Income	the after-tax income of U.S. households, adjusted for inflation	U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis	Monthly
Retail Sales	sales at U.S. retail and food service businesses	U.S. Census Bureau	Monthly
Retail Sales Control Group	U.S. retail sales excluding autos, gasoline, building materials and food services	U.S. Census Bureau	Monthly
Retail Sales ex Autos	U.S. retail and food service sales excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers	U.S. Census Bureau	Monthly
Revolving Credit	revolving consumer credit, mostly credit cards, in the United States	Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System	Monthly

25 indicator pages are listed. Each row comes from the same source file as the page it links, so the publisher and frequency here match that page.

What limits do Consumer and Household Indicators share?

Income and spending series are revised in the BEA's annual updates, and advance retail sales are revised as more reports arrive and again at annual benchmarks. Nominal series mix changes in volume with changes in prices. Surveys carry sampling error and depend on question wording, and preliminary readings are revised. Credit bureau balances count what lenders reported at quarter end, and G.19 levels are benchmarked later. The debt service ratio is modeled from assumed terms rather than observed, and the saving rate is a residual that moves with revisions to either income or spending.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between consumer sentiment and consumer confidence?

Both are monthly household surveys, but they come from different publishers with different questions. Consumer sentiment is from the University of Michigan and is set to 1966 Q1 equal to 100. Consumer confidence is from The Conference Board and is set to 1985 equal to 100. Their levels are not comparable, and they can move differently in the same month.

Why does retail sales have an ex autos and a control group version?

Autos, gasoline, building materials and food services are large and volatile categories. Ex autos removes only motor vehicle and parts dealers. The control group removes all four and is a closer proxy for the retail goods spending that enters consumer spending in the national accounts.

Where do the household debt figures come from?

The Federal Reserve's G.19 reports consumer credit monthly from surveys of lenders and excludes loans secured by real estate. The New York Fed's Household Debt and Credit report is quarterly, built from a sample of credit reports, and includes mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and student loans. Because methods differ, similar series can differ.

How is the personal saving rate calculated?

The BEA calculates personal saving as disposable personal income minus personal outlays, which are consumer spending, interest payments and transfer payments, then divides by disposable income. Because saving is a residual, revisions to either income or spending can change the rate.

Are consumer inflation expectations a forecast of inflation?

No. They record what households say they expect, usually reported as a median across respondents. Surveys differ by horizon and wording, and they can differ from market-based measures and from the official inflation figures that follow. Analysts watch them mainly for shifts in household expectations over time.