Direct Answer
Business and surveys indicators measure how companies, purchasing managers and small business owners report activity, orders, hiring and prices. Most investors start with the ISM and S&P Global PMIs and regional Fed surveys such as the Empire State index. They are diffusion indexes of direction and breadth, not measured levels of output.
Business Surveys and Sentiment Indicators: Investor Reference
This category covers economic indicators in the Business Surveys and Sentiment Indicators area. Each linked indicator page explains the measure's definition, calculation methodology, release schedule and market interpretation in depth.
See the full economic indicators hub for all 15 categories, or the Macro & Market Regimes section for broader context on how these indicators influence market regimes and portfolio positioning.
What do Business Surveys and Sentiment Indicators have in common?
These series come from asking businesses rather than counting transactions. That makes them timely: they are published ahead of the hard data they are meant to anticipate, such as industrial production, payrolls and GDP. The trade-off is that each one reports the direction and breadth of change described by respondents, not a measured quantity of output or sales.
The Institute for Supply Management publishes two families. The ISM manufacturing PMI is a simple average of five components: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories. Prices paid is reported but is not part of the composite. The ISM services PMI averages four: business activity, new orders, employment and supplier deliveries. In both, 50 is the neutral level, and each index is the percent reporting an increase plus half the percent reporting no change.
S&P Global publishes a U.S. manufacturing PMI, a services PMI and a composite that combines manufacturing output with services activity. They use the same 50-neutral convention but different panels and a different weighting scheme from ISM, so they can differ from ISM in the same month. The regional Fed surveys (Empire State, Philadelphia, Richmond, Kansas City and Dallas) cover one state or district, are published during the month ahead of the ISM report, and are centered on zero.
The National Federation of Independent Business publishes small business optimism, hiring plans and price plans from a monthly survey of its members. Business applications and high-propensity business applications come from the Census Bureau and are administrative counts of applications for employer identification numbers, so they measure business formation rather than sentiment.
How do you choose among Business Surveys and Sentiment Indicators?
- Match the threshold to the source: 50 for ISM and S&P Global PMIs, zero for the regional Fed indexes, and net percent for NFIB hiring and price plans. NFIB optimism is indexed to a 1986 base of 100, so it has no 50 line.
- Use the headline PMI for a summary and the components for the cause. New orders are often read as the most forward-looking component, while production and employment describe current activity.
- Read ISM prices paid, ISM services prices and NFIB price plans for price pressure. Prices paid shows how broad increases are, not how large, and NFIB price plans report intentions rather than realized changes.
- Treat supplier deliveries with care. Slower deliveries push the index above 50, so a high reading can reflect supply strain as well as strong demand. Read it alongside new orders.
- Use regional Fed surveys as early, narrow reads and look at several together, since a single district represents only its own manufacturers and industry mix.
- Use business applications for the entry of new firms and the high-propensity series for those likely to hire. Both count filings, not businesses that open.
Business Surveys and Sentiment Indicators at a glance
| Indicator | Geography | What it measures | Published by | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empire State Manufacturing Index | New York State | New York State factory activity and general business conditions | Federal Reserve Bank of New York | Monthly |
| Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index | Tenth Federal Reserve District | manufacturing activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District from a survey of plant managers | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City | Monthly |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | Texas | Texas factory activity and general business conditions | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas | Monthly |
| Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | Third Federal Reserve District (Philadelphia) | manufacturing activity in the Third Federal Reserve District from a survey of local manufacturers | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia | Monthly |
| Business Applications | United States | new business formation | U.S. Census Bureau | Monthly |
| High-Propensity Business Applications | United States | new business applications with a high likelihood of becoming employer firms | U.S. Census Bureau | Monthly |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment | United States | manufacturing employment conditions reported by purchasing managers | Institute for Supply Management | Monthly |
| ISM Manufacturing Inventories | United States | manufacturing inventory levels reported by purchasing managers | Institute for Supply Management | Monthly |
| ISM Manufacturing New Orders | United States | the pace of new orders reported by manufacturing purchasing managers | Institute for Supply Management | Monthly |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | United States | overall manufacturing activity from a survey of purchasing managers | Institute for Supply Management | Monthly |
| ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid | United States | input price pressures reported by manufacturing purchasing managers | Institute for Supply Management | Monthly |
| ISM Manufacturing Production | United States | manufacturing output conditions reported by purchasing managers | Institute for Supply Management | Monthly |
| ISM Services Business Activity | United States | services sector business activity reported by purchasing managers | Institute for Supply Management | Monthly |
| ISM Services Employment | United States | services sector employment conditions reported by purchasing managers | Institute for Supply Management | Monthly |
| ISM Services New Orders | United States | the pace of new orders reported by services sector purchasing managers | Institute for Supply Management | Monthly |
| ISM Services PMI | United States | overall services sector activity from a survey of purchasing managers | Institute for Supply Management | Monthly |
| ISM Services Prices | United States | input price pressures reported by services sector purchasing managers | Institute for Supply Management | Monthly |
| ISM Supplier Deliveries | United States | how quickly suppliers are delivering to manufacturers, a gauge of supply chain strain | Institute for Supply Management | Monthly |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | United States | manufacturing activity in the Fifth Federal Reserve District | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond | Monthly |
| S&P U.S. Composite PMI | United States | the month-to-month change in output across U.S. manufacturing and services, from a survey of purchasing managers | S&P Global | Monthly |
| S&P U.S. Manufacturing PMI | United States | the month-to-month change in conditions in U.S. manufacturing, from a survey of purchasing managers | S&P Global | Monthly |
| S&P U.S. Services PMI | United States | the month-to-month change in activity in the U.S. services sector, from a survey of purchasing managers | S&P Global | Monthly |
| Small Business Hiring Plans | United States | the share of U.S. small businesses planning to add jobs | National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) | Monthly |
| Small Business Optimism | United States | how U.S. small business owners view conditions and their expectations | National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) | Monthly |
| Small Business Price Plans | United States | the share of U.S. small businesses planning to raise their selling prices | National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) | Monthly |
25 indicator pages are listed. Each row comes from the same source file as the page it links, so the publisher and frequency here match that page.
What limits do Business Surveys and Sentiment Indicators share?
Diffusion indexes count how many respondents report an increase or a decrease, so they say nothing about the size of the change, and a reading above neutral means more reports of improvement than decline, not strong growth. Panels are limited samples, results are seasonally adjusted and revised, and responses compare each month with the prior month. Regional surveys cover one district's manufacturers, whose industry mix differs from national output. Survey readings and hard data can diverge for months, and ISM and S&P Global PMIs differ in panel and weighting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a PMI reading of 50 mean?
Fifty is the neutral level for the ISM and S&P Global PMIs. Each component index is the percent of respondents reporting an increase plus half the percent reporting no change, so 50 means increases and decreases offset. Above 50 indicates expansion from the prior month, and below 50 indicates contraction.
What is the difference between the ISM PMI and the S&P Global PMI?
Both are 50-centered diffusion indexes of U.S. business conditions, but they come from separate surveys with different panels and different headline construction. ISM's manufacturing PMI is an equal-weighted average of five components, while S&P Global's headline uses unequal weights. They often point the same way, but not always.
Why do regional Fed surveys use zero as the neutral level?
The regional indexes are calculated as the percent of firms reporting an increase minus the percent reporting a decrease, so zero means the two offset. ISM instead adds half of the unchanged responses, which centers its scale on 50. The two scales are not directly comparable.
Why is supplier deliveries part of the ISM PMI?
Slower supplier deliveries are scored as the upward direction, because longer delivery times often accompany strong demand. The component can also rise when supply chains are strained, so reading it next to new orders and supply chain series helps separate demand from disruption.
What do business applications measure?
The Census Bureau counts applications for new employer identification numbers filed with the IRS and keeps those that plausibly represent new business formation. The count measures filings, not businesses that open, survive or hire. The high-propensity series flags applications a model rates as likely to become employer firms.