Direct Answer
Auto Loan Delinquency Rate is a quarterly economic indicator published by Federal Reserve Bank of New York for the United States. It measures the share of U.S. auto loan balances that are delinquent and is used by investors, economists and policymakers to assess the economic environment. Changes in the indicator can influence monetary policy expectations and asset prices across equities, fixed income and currency markets. This page is an educational guide and does not provide investment advice.
Auto Loan Delinquencies: Latest Reading, Historical Chart & Investor Guide
Indicator Snapshot
| Field | Detail |
|---|---|
| Common name | Auto Loan Delinquencies |
| Full name | Auto Loan Delinquency Rate |
| Geography | United States |
| Publisher | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Release frequency | Quarterly |
| Category | Banking And Credit |
What Auto Loan Delinquencies Measures
Auto Loan Delinquency Rate measures the share of U.S. auto loan balances that are delinquent. The indicator is published by Federal Reserve Bank of New York on a quarterly basis and is one of the primary datasets used by investors and economists to monitor this area of the economy.
Share of outstanding U.S. auto loan balances that have become seriously delinquent, in percent, from the New York Fed Household Debt and Credit report. It is a quarterly measure based on credit bureau data and is not seasonally adjusted.
Why Investors Watch Auto Loan Delinquencies
Auto loan delinquency is a timely read on household credit stress, especially among lower-income and subprime borrowers, and it signals potential losses for lenders and holders of auto asset-backed securities. Rising delinquency can lead lenders to tighten standards.
The indicator's impact on financial markets depends on multiple factors: whether the reading was expected, the current economic regime, central bank policy stance, and investor positioning. A single data point is rarely sufficient to draw firm conclusions.
How Auto Loan Delinquencies Is Calculated
The New York Fed uses its Consumer Credit Panel of anonymized Equifax records to compute the percentage of auto loan dollars that are 90 or more days past due, and also reports the share of balances newly moving into delinquency. Each figure is measured at quarter end.
The official methodology documentation from Federal Reserve Bank of New York describes the full calculation process including sample design, weighting and revision procedures.
Reference: Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Auto Loan Delinquencies data and methodology
Release Schedule and Revisions
Auto Loan Delinquencies is typically released quarterly by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Release dates are announced in advance through the official release calendar. Investors should monitor both the scheduled release dates and any unscheduled revisions.
Economic data is frequently revised as additional information becomes available. Initial releases may be revised materially in subsequent publications. Tracking revision patterns alongside absolute levels can provide additional insight into data quality and economic momentum.
How to Interpret Auto Loan Delinquencies Changes
When analyzing Auto Loan Delinquencies data, investors should consider multiple dimensions simultaneously:
- A rising share of auto balances 90 or more days past due points to growing strain among borrowers, and it has tended to rise first among lower-credit-score borrowers.
- Compare the stock of seriously delinquent balances with the flow into delinquency and with unemployment: rising delinquency with low unemployment suggests payment burden from prices and rates.
- The series is not seasonally adjusted, so compare each quarter with the same quarter a year earlier before calling a trend.
Market Impact of Auto Loan Delinquencies
Auto Loan Delinquencies can influence multiple asset classes depending on its implications for economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy:
- Equities: Changes in Auto Loan Delinquencies can affect earnings expectations, discount rates and sector rotation preferences.
- Fixed income: The indicator may influence Treasury yields and credit spreads depending on its monetary policy implications.
- Currency markets: Divergence in Auto Loan Delinquencies across economies can affect relative currency valuations.
- Commodities: Economic activity indicators can affect commodity demand expectations and prices.
Historical Context
Auto Loan Delinquency Rate has a long history that provides context for interpreting current readings. Key reference points include major economic cycles, recessions, recovery periods and policy regime changes. Historical comparison helps investors avoid placing excessive weight on any single data point outside its longer-run context.
Investors should be aware that methodology changes over time can affect comparability across long historical periods. The official Federal Reserve Bank of New York documentation will note any significant definitional or methodological changes.
Limitations of Auto Loan Delinquencies
Like all economic indicators, Auto Loan Delinquencies has limitations that investors should understand before drawing conclusions:
- The figure is a share of dollars, so a wave of new originations dilutes the rate in the short run, and a shift in loan mix can change it without any change in borrower behavior.
- Data come from a sample of credit files and arrive about six weeks after quarter end, with some revision as the panel is updated.
- No single indicator captures the full complexity of economic conditions, so read this series next to the ones linked below.
Related Economic Indicators
Auto Loan Delinquencies is best interpreted alongside related indicators that provide complementary perspectives on the share of U.S. auto loan balances that are delinquent. Confirming or diverging signals across related indicators help investors form more robust views of the economic environment.
See the Banking And Credit indicators section and the Macro & Market Regimes hub for broader context and related data.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Auto Loan Delinquencies?
Auto Loan Delinquency Rate is a quarterly economic indicator for the United States. It is published by Federal Reserve Bank of New York and is used by investors, economists and policymakers to assess the share of U.S. auto loan balances that are delinquent.
Who publishes Auto Loan Delinquencies?
Auto Loan Delinquencies is published by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The official data, release calendar and methodology are available at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York website.
When is Auto Loan Delinquencies released?
Auto Loan Delinquencies is typically released quarterly by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Exact release dates are announced in advance through the official release calendar. Initial releases may be revised in subsequent months as additional data becomes available.
How is Auto Loan Delinquencies calculated?
The New York Fed uses its Consumer Credit Panel of anonymized Equifax records to compute the percentage of auto loan dollars that are 90 or more days past due, and also reports the share of balances newly moving into delinquency. Each figure is measured at quarter end. Refer to the official Federal Reserve Bank of New York methodology documentation for the complete calculation procedure.
What does a higher Auto Loan Delinquencies reading mean for markets?
A higher Auto Loan Delinquencies reading can signal changes in the share of U.S. auto loan balances that are delinquent. The market impact depends on whether the reading was above or below consensus expectations, the prevailing economic cycle, and current monetary policy context. Investors should not rely on any single data point to drive portfolio decisions.