Direct Answer
The difference between the percentage of bullish and bearish investment newsletter editors in the Investors Intelligence survey, which also tracks a correction group. It measures the mood of professional advisers rather than of individual investors. A wide positive spread shows strong adviser optimism and is often read from a contrarian angle as a sign of crowded bullishness, while a negative or very small spread shows pessimism.
Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread: Formula, Meaning, Signals, Examples and How to Use It
How Is Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread Calculated?
The difference between the percentage of bullish and bearish investment newsletter editors in the Investors Intelligence survey, which also tracks a correction group. It measures the mood of professional advisers rather than of individual investors.
Formula: Spread = bullish advisers % - bearish advisers %
Inputs:
- Investors Intelligence advisory sentiment survey
- Bullish and bearish percentages
Worked example. If 55 percent of advisers are bullish and 20 percent bearish, the spread is 35.0 percentage points. The inputs are illustrative numbers, not market data.
Reading it. A wide positive spread shows strong adviser optimism and is often read from a contrarian angle as a sign of crowded bullishness, while a negative or very small spread shows pessimism. The measure is compared with its own history because levels shift with market regimes.
Limits. Advisers tend to follow trends, so the survey often lags the market. The classification of each newsletter is a judgement call, and the survey is proprietary.
What is Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread?
The difference between the percentage of bullish and bearish investment newsletter editors in the Investors Intelligence survey, which also tracks a correction group. It measures the mood of professional advisers rather than of individual investors.
How to use Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread
A wide positive spread shows strong adviser optimism and is often read from a contrarian angle as a sign of crowded bullishness, while a negative or very small spread shows pessimism. The measure is compared with its own history because levels shift with market regimes. A reading alone is never a buy or sell signal; it needs context from price structure, volume, volatility and the broader market regime.
Strengths
- Newsletter editors are classified from their published recommendations, so the figure reflects stated advice rather than private positions.
- Presenting bulls minus bears as a spread condenses a multi-group survey into one trackable number.
- Reproducible when the formula and data convention are fixed.
Weaknesses and limitations
- The group surveyed is a limited set of newsletters, so a few editors changing stance shifts the percentages noticeably.
- Because the correction group is left out of the spread, a rise in correction views can change the mood without moving the number.
- Correlated indicators can create false confidence by repeating the same underlying information.
Editorial and risk note
This page is educational content, not individualized investment advice. It should not imply guaranteed prediction, accuracy or outperformance.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread a buy or sell signal?
No. A wide positive spread shows strong adviser optimism and is often read from a contrarian angle as a sign of crowded bullishness, while a negative or very small spread shows pessimism. Advisers tend to follow trends, so the survey often lags the market. A trade built on it still needs a trigger, an invalidation rule, a position size and realistic execution assumptions.
What is the best setting for Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread?
Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread is computed from investors Intelligence advisory sentiment survey; bullish and bearish percentages, so the choices that matter are the data convention and the window it is read over. Test those across instruments, regimes and out-of-sample periods instead of fitting one historical winner.
Can Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread be used by itself?
Advisers tend to follow trends, so the survey often lags the market. The classification of each newsletter is a judgement call, and the survey is proprietary. For that reason it is read next to measures of direction, participation, valuation, liquidity and risk, not alone.
Does Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread work on every timeframe?
The calculation (Spread = bullish advisers % - bearish advisers %) can be run on any bar size, but behavior is not portable: a reading on a five-minute chart describes a very different market window from the same reading on a daily chart. Validate the exact timeframe before relying on it.
Why does Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread give false signals?
The group surveyed is a limited set of newsletters, so a few editors changing stance shifts the percentages noticeably. Because the correction group is left out of the spread, a rise in correction views can change the mood without moving the number. Lag, noise and regime changes add to this, because market participants react to new information after the reading is calculated.
How should Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread be backtested?
Rebuild Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread from investors Intelligence advisory sentiment survey using point-in-time data, write the rules before testing, include delisted securities where relevant, model realistic fills and costs, reserve a validation sample and compare with a simpler baseline.