Direct Answer
Know Sure Thing is a momentum measure used to measure the speed, persistence, or relative intensity of recent price movement. The production page must define the exact calculation convention before interpreting higher or lower readings, because platform and provider implementations can differ.
Know Sure Thing: Formula, Meaning, Signals, Examples and How to Use It
How Is Know Sure Thing Calculated?
Martin Pring's KST sums four smoothed rate-of-change series of increasing length, with longer-term cycles given higher weights. It blends short, intermediate and longer momentum into one oscillator.
Formula: KST = 1*SMA(ROC(10),10) + 2*SMA(ROC(15),10) + 3*SMA(ROC(20),10) + 4*SMA(ROC(30),15), with a 9-period signal line
Inputs:
- Closing prices
- Four ROC lengths (10, 15, 20, 30 in the common daily set)
- Four smoothing lengths (10, 10, 10, 15)
- Signal line period 9
Worked example. With smoothed ROC values of 2.0, 1.5, 1.0 and 0.5, the weighted KST total is 10.00. The inputs are illustrative numbers, not market data.
Reading it. Positive values indicate broad positive momentum across the four timeframes and negative values the reverse. Crossings of the signal line and of the zero line are the typical events monitored.
Limits. Its heavy smoothing and four-component design make it lag price turns. The parameter sets were tuned for particular cycle lengths, so results depend on the chosen settings.
Indicator overview
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Category | Momentum |
| Asset classes | Stocks, ETFs, Indexes, Futures, Forex, Crypto, Commodities |
| Output type | Oscillator/line |
| Parameters | Varies by implementation; document exact settings on use |
What is Know Sure Thing?
Know Sure Thing is a momentum measure used to measure the speed, persistence, or relative intensity of recent price movement. The production page must define the exact calculation convention before interpreting higher or lower readings, because platform and provider implementations can differ.
For Swoopr, the canonical profile separates definition, calculation, interpretation and decision use. That keeps readers from collapsing a descriptive metric into a trading strategy. An indicator can describe trend, momentum, volatility, participation, positioning or risk without providing a complete entry, exit, sizing or portfolio decision.
What does it measure?
Know Sure Thing measures specific market properties in the Momentum domain. The practical value is repeatability: the same inputs and formula can be applied across a defined dataset, allowing users to compare readings through time or across instruments when the calculation convention is held constant.
How to read Know Sure Thing
Interpretation depends on the market property being measured. A descriptive reading is not automatically predictive. The same numerical state can lead to different outcomes in a strong trend, quiet range, event-driven gap or illiquid market. Always combine with context from price structure, volume, and broader market regime before drawing conclusions.
Strengths
- Four rate-of-change series with weights 1 through 4 give the longer cycles the most influence, so the line follows the slowest component's direction.
- Smoothing every rate of change before weighting reduces day-to-day jitter in each component, which makes line crossings less frequent.
- Reproducible when the formula and data convention are fixed.
Weaknesses and limitations
- The weights of 1 to 4 are a fixed choice, so the longest rate of change always carries the most weight whichever cycle dominates the data.
- Four smoothed averages stacked on four rates of change need many bars before the first valid value, which delays use on short histories.
- Correlated indicators can create false confidence by repeating the same underlying information.
Editorial and risk note
This page is educational content, not individualized investment advice. It should not imply guaranteed prediction, accuracy or outperformance. Where multiple valid definitions exist, Swoopr states the alternatives and the reason for selecting its primary convention.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Know Sure Thing a buy or sell signal?
No. Positive values indicate broad positive momentum across the four timeframes and negative values the reverse. Its heavy smoothing and four-component design make it lag price turns. A trade built on it still needs a trigger, an invalidation rule, a position size and realistic execution assumptions.
What is the best setting for Know Sure Thing?
Know Sure Thing takes these inputs: closing prices; four ROC lengths (10, 15, 20, 30 in the common daily set); four smoothing lengths (10, 10, 10, 15). There is no universal best setting for the tunable ones, so test them across instruments, regimes and out-of-sample periods and favor stable parameter regions over one historical winner.
Can Know Sure Thing be used by itself?
Its heavy smoothing and four-component design make it lag price turns. The parameter sets were tuned for particular cycle lengths, so results depend on the chosen settings. For that reason it is read next to measures of direction, participation, valuation, liquidity and risk, not alone.
Does Know Sure Thing work on every timeframe?
The calculation (KST = 1*SMA(ROC(10),10) + 2*SMA(ROC(15),10) + 3*SMA(ROC(20),10) + 4*SMA(ROC(30),15), with a 9-period signal line) can be run on any bar size, but behavior is not portable: a reading on a five-minute chart describes a very different market window from the same reading on a daily chart. Validate the exact timeframe before relying on it.
Why does Know Sure Thing give false signals?
The weights of 1 to 4 are a fixed choice, so the longest rate of change always carries the most weight whichever cycle dominates the data. Four smoothed averages stacked on four rates of change need many bars before the first valid value, which delays use on short histories. Lag, noise and regime changes add to this, because market participants react to new information after the reading is calculated.
How should Know Sure Thing be backtested?
Rebuild Know Sure Thing from closing prices using point-in-time data, write the rules before testing, include delisted securities where relevant, model realistic fills and costs, reserve a validation sample and compare with a simpler baseline.