Direct Answer
The share (or amount) of circulating supply that has not moved on-chain for at least one year. It indicates how much of the supply is held with a long time horizon. A rising share means more coins are staying put and aging into the long-term holder group.
Supply Last Active 1+ Year: Formula, Meaning, Signals, Examples and How to Use It
How Is Supply Last Active 1+ Year Calculated?
The share (or amount) of circulating supply that has not moved on-chain for at least one year. It indicates how much of the supply is held with a long time horizon.
Formula: Supply last active 1+ year = coins in unspent outputs aged at least 1 year / total circulating supply
Inputs:
- Unspent outputs with creation dates
- One-year age cutoff
- Circulating supply
Worked example. If 7.4 million of 19.7 million coins have been unmoved for a year or more (illustrative), the share is 37.6%. The inputs are illustrative numbers, not market data.
Reading it. A rising share means more coins are staying put and aging into the long-term holder group. A falling share means older coins are becoming active again. The one-year version responds faster than the two-year version.
Limits. Coin age resets on any movement, even between the same owner's wallets, and lost coins stay in the count. The cutoff is a convention.
What is Supply Last Active 1+ Year?
The share (or amount) of circulating supply that has not moved on-chain for at least one year. It indicates how much of the supply is held with a long time horizon.
How to use Supply Last Active 1+ Year
A rising share means more coins are staying put and aging into the long-term holder group. A falling share means older coins are becoming active again. The one-year version responds faster than the two-year version. A reading alone is never a buy or sell signal; it needs context from price structure, volume, volatility and the broader market regime.
Strengths
- A one-year cutoff gives a clear, rounded threshold for what counts as long-held coins.
- Expressed as a share of circulating supply, it can be tracked as a percentage between 0 and 100 over time.
- Reproducible when the formula and data convention are fixed.
Weaknesses and limitations
- Coins pass the one-year mark by the passage of time alone, so the share can rise in quiet periods without any holder action.
- New issuance enters at age zero, so the share slips slightly each day even if no old coin moves.
- Correlated indicators can create false confidence by repeating the same underlying information.
Editorial and risk note
This page is educational content, not individualized investment advice. It should not imply guaranteed prediction, accuracy or outperformance.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Supply Last Active 1+ Year a buy or sell signal?
No. A rising share means more coins are staying put and aging into the long-term holder group. Coin age resets on any movement, even between the same owner's wallets, and lost coins stay in the count. A trade built on it still needs a trigger, an invalidation rule, a position size and realistic execution assumptions.
What is the best setting for Supply Last Active 1+ Year?
Supply Last Active 1+ Year is computed from unspent outputs with creation dates; one-year age cutoff; circulating supply, so the choices that matter are the data convention and the window it is read over. Test those across instruments, regimes and out-of-sample periods instead of fitting one historical winner.
Can Supply Last Active 1+ Year be used by itself?
Coin age resets on any movement, even between the same owner's wallets, and lost coins stay in the count. The cutoff is a convention. For that reason it is read next to measures of direction, participation, valuation, liquidity and risk, not alone.
Does Supply Last Active 1+ Year work on every timeframe?
The calculation (Supply last active 1+ year = coins in unspent outputs aged at least 1 year / total circulating supply) can be run on any bar size, but behavior is not portable: a reading on a five-minute chart describes a very different market window from the same reading on a daily chart. Validate the exact timeframe before relying on it.
Why does Supply Last Active 1+ Year give false signals?
Coins pass the one-year mark by the passage of time alone, so the share can rise in quiet periods without any holder action. New issuance enters at age zero, so the share slips slightly each day even if no old coin moves. Lag, noise and regime changes add to this, because market participants react to new information after the reading is calculated.
How should Supply Last Active 1+ Year be backtested?
Rebuild Supply Last Active 1+ Year from unspent outputs with creation dates using point-in-time data, write the rules before testing, include delisted securities where relevant, model realistic fills and costs, reserve a validation sample and compare with a simpler baseline.