Direct Answer
The amount of circulating supply held by coins that moved within the last 155 days, a cutoff commonly used by data providers to separate short-term from long-term holders. Rising short-term holder supply means coins are changing hands more or older coins are being redistributed, often associated with new demand or profit-taking. The 155-day threshold is a convention, and moving coins between a holder's own wallets resets their age.
Short-Term Holder Supply: Formula, Meaning, Signals, Examples and How to Use It
How Is Short-Term Holder Supply Calculated?
The amount of circulating supply held by coins that moved within the last 155 days, a cutoff commonly used by data providers to separate short-term from long-term holders.
Formula: STH supply = sum of unspent outputs whose age is under 155 days
Inputs:
- Unspent outputs with creation dates
- Age threshold (commonly 155 days)
- Circulating supply
Worked example. If 3.1 million of 19.7 million coins moved within the cutoff (illustrative), short-term holders control 15.7% of supply. The inputs are illustrative numbers, not market data.
Reading it. Rising short-term holder supply means coins are changing hands more or older coins are being redistributed, often associated with new demand or profit-taking. Falling supply means coins are maturing past the cutoff.
Limits. The 155-day threshold is a convention, and moving coins between a holder's own wallets resets their age. The figure shows the age of coins rather than who owns them.
What is Short-Term Holder Supply?
The amount of circulating supply held by coins that moved within the last 155 days, a cutoff commonly used by data providers to separate short-term from long-term holders.
How to use Short-Term Holder Supply
Rising short-term holder supply means coins are changing hands more or older coins are being redistributed, often associated with new demand or profit-taking. Falling supply means coins are maturing past the cutoff. A reading alone is never a buy or sell signal; it needs context from price structure, volume, volatility and the broader market regime.
Strengths
- Counting coins moved in the last 155 days gives a stock measure of recently active supply.
- Its complement with long-term supply sums to circulating supply, so the pair gives a split by age.
- Reproducible when the formula and data convention are fixed.
Weaknesses and limitations
- Coins leave the group automatically as they age past 155 days, so the figure falls with the passage of time without any holder selling.
- Exchange and custodial wallets churn coins frequently, so a large part of this group may be held by custodians whose coins constantly reset in age.
- Correlated indicators can create false confidence by repeating the same underlying information.
Editorial and risk note
This page is educational content, not individualized investment advice. It should not imply guaranteed prediction, accuracy or outperformance.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Short-Term Holder Supply a buy or sell signal?
No. Rising short-term holder supply means coins are changing hands more or older coins are being redistributed, often associated with new demand or profit-taking. The 155-day threshold is a convention, and moving coins between a holder's own wallets resets their age. A trade built on it still needs a trigger, an invalidation rule, a position size and realistic execution assumptions.
What is the best setting for Short-Term Holder Supply?
Short-Term Holder Supply takes these inputs: unspent outputs with creation dates; age threshold (commonly 155 days); circulating supply. There is no universal best setting for the tunable ones, so test them across instruments, regimes and out-of-sample periods and favor stable parameter regions over one historical winner.
Can Short-Term Holder Supply be used by itself?
The 155-day threshold is a convention, and moving coins between a holder's own wallets resets their age. The figure shows the age of coins rather than who owns them. For that reason it is read next to measures of direction, participation, valuation, liquidity and risk, not alone.
Does Short-Term Holder Supply work on every timeframe?
The calculation (STH supply = sum of unspent outputs whose age is under 155 days) can be run on any bar size, but behavior is not portable: a reading on a five-minute chart describes a very different market window from the same reading on a daily chart. Validate the exact timeframe before relying on it.
Why does Short-Term Holder Supply give false signals?
Coins leave the group automatically as they age past 155 days, so the figure falls with the passage of time without any holder selling. Exchange and custodial wallets churn coins frequently, so a large part of this group may be held by custodians whose coins constantly reset in age. Lag, noise and regime changes add to this, because market participants react to new information after the reading is calculated.
How should Short-Term Holder Supply be backtested?
Rebuild Short-Term Holder Supply from unspent outputs with creation dates using point-in-time data, write the rules before testing, include delisted securities where relevant, model realistic fills and costs, reserve a validation sample and compare with a simpler baseline.