Direct Answer
The total unrealized profit held by coins whose cost basis is below the current price, expressed as a share of market capitalization. It sizes how much value is in gain in relation to the market. Higher values mean a larger share of market value is unrealized gain, which is typical late in rallies; analysts watch it as a gauge of how much profit holders could realize.
Relative Unrealized Profit: Formula, Meaning, Signals, Examples and How to Use It
How Is Relative Unrealized Profit Calculated?
The total unrealized profit held by coins whose cost basis is below the current price, expressed as a share of market capitalization. It sizes how much value is in gain in relation to the market.
Formula: Relative unrealized profit = sum over coins with cost basis below price of (price - cost basis) x amount / market cap
Inputs:
- Unspent outputs with creation-date prices
- Current price
- Market capitalization
Worked example. With illustrative unrealized profits of 300 against a market cap of 1200 (billions of USD), the figure is 25.0%. The inputs are illustrative numbers, not market data.
Reading it. Higher values mean a larger share of market value is unrealized gain, which is typical late in rallies; analysts watch it as a gauge of how much profit holders could realize. It is the counterpart of relative unrealized loss, and NUPL equals their difference.
Limits. Cost basis is the price at the last on-chain move, so the figure is approximate. It does not show whether holders intend to sell.
What is Relative Unrealized Profit?
The total unrealized profit held by coins whose cost basis is below the current price, expressed as a share of market capitalization. It sizes how much value is in gain in relation to the market.
How to use Relative Unrealized Profit
Higher values mean a larger share of market value is unrealized gain, which is typical late in rallies; analysts watch it as a gauge of how much profit holders could realize. It is the counterpart of relative unrealized loss, and NUPL equals their difference. A reading alone is never a buy or sell signal; it needs context from price structure, volume, volatility and the broader market regime.
Strengths
- Counting only coins with cost below price sizes the in-the-money portion of supply as a share of market value.
- Because it is a share of market cap, readings across years of different price levels sit on the same relative scale.
- Reproducible when the formula and data convention are fixed.
Weaknesses and limitations
- Spending a long-held coin resets its cost to the spend price, so the figure can fall when old coins move even if price is unchanged.
- Coins with very low cost bases contribute large per-coin gains, so a small number of old, cheap outputs can carry a large part of the total.
- Correlated indicators can create false confidence by repeating the same underlying information.
Editorial and risk note
This page is educational content, not individualized investment advice. It should not imply guaranteed prediction, accuracy or outperformance.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Relative Unrealized Profit a buy or sell signal?
No. Higher values mean a larger share of market value is unrealized gain, which is typical late in rallies; analysts watch it as a gauge of how much profit holders could realize. Cost basis is the price at the last on-chain move, so the figure is approximate. A trade built on it still needs a trigger, an invalidation rule, a position size and realistic execution assumptions.
What is the best setting for Relative Unrealized Profit?
Relative Unrealized Profit is computed from unspent outputs with creation-date prices; current price; market capitalization, so the choices that matter are the data convention and the window it is read over. Test those across instruments, regimes and out-of-sample periods instead of fitting one historical winner.
Can Relative Unrealized Profit be used by itself?
Cost basis is the price at the last on-chain move, so the figure is approximate. It does not show whether holders intend to sell. For that reason it is read next to measures of direction, participation, valuation, liquidity and risk, not alone.
Does Relative Unrealized Profit work on every timeframe?
The calculation (Relative unrealized profit = sum over coins with cost basis below price of (price - cost basis) x amount / market cap) can be run on any bar size, but behavior is not portable: a reading on a five-minute chart describes a very different market window from the same reading on a daily chart. Validate the exact timeframe before relying on it.
Why does Relative Unrealized Profit give false signals?
Spending a long-held coin resets its cost to the spend price, so the figure can fall when old coins move even if price is unchanged. Coins with very low cost bases contribute large per-coin gains, so a small number of old, cheap outputs can carry a large part of the total. Lag, noise and regime changes add to this, because market participants react to new information after the reading is calculated.
How should Relative Unrealized Profit be backtested?
Rebuild Relative Unrealized Profit from unspent outputs with creation-date prices using point-in-time data, write the rules before testing, include delisted securities where relevant, model realistic fills and costs, reserve a validation sample and compare with a simpler baseline.