Direct Answer
SOPR restricted to spent outputs that were held for at least 155 days, the age cutoff commonly used by data providers for long-term holders. It shows whether those holders are spending coins at a profit or loss. Values above 1 mean long-term holders are realizing profit as they spend, and values near or below 1 mean they are spending at breakeven or a loss.
Long-Term Holder SOPR: Formula, Meaning, Signals, Examples and How to Use It
How Is Long-Term Holder SOPR Calculated?
SOPR restricted to spent outputs that were held for at least 155 days, the age cutoff commonly used by data providers for long-term holders. It shows whether those holders are spending coins at a profit or loss.
Formula: LTH-SOPR = sum(value at spend-date price) / sum(value at creation-date price), for outputs aged 155 days or more
Inputs:
- Spent outputs with age 155 days or more
- Price at creation time
- Price at spend time
Worked example. If long-held outputs were worth 1800 when spent against 1200 when created (illustrative USD millions), the ratio is 1.50. The inputs are illustrative numbers, not market data.
Reading it. Values above 1 mean long-term holders are realizing profit as they spend, and values near or below 1 mean they are spending at breakeven or a loss. Because these coins are usually moved by experienced holders, readings are followed for signs of distribution.
Limits. Only coins that move are counted, and long-dormant coins move rarely, so readings can be sparse. Moving coins to a new wallet counts as spending, which can mislead.
What is Long-Term Holder SOPR?
SOPR restricted to spent outputs that were held for at least 155 days, the age cutoff commonly used by data providers for long-term holders. It shows whether those holders are spending coins at a profit or loss.
How to use Long-Term Holder SOPR
Values above 1 mean long-term holders are realizing profit as they spend, and values near or below 1 mean they are spending at breakeven or a loss. Because these coins are usually moved by experienced holders, readings are followed for signs of distribution. A reading alone is never a buy or sell signal; it needs context from price structure, volume, volatility and the broader market regime.
Strengths
- Restricting to outputs aged 155 days or more asks one question: are coins that were held long being spent above or below their creation price?
- The same price-ratio construction as SOPR makes 1.0 the break-even level, so a reading above or below it has a direct meaning.
- Reproducible when the formula and data convention are fixed.
Weaknesses and limitations
- Because the ratio sums values rather than averaging per coin, a few large old outputs can set the whole day's reading.
- Coins crossing the 155-day boundary enter the group from the short-term side, so membership changes daily without any holder action.
- Correlated indicators can create false confidence by repeating the same underlying information.
Editorial and risk note
This page is educational content, not individualized investment advice. It should not imply guaranteed prediction, accuracy or outperformance.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Long-Term Holder SOPR a buy or sell signal?
No. Values above 1 mean long-term holders are realizing profit as they spend, and values near or below 1 mean they are spending at breakeven or a loss. Only coins that move are counted, and long-dormant coins move rarely, so readings can be sparse. A trade built on it still needs a trigger, an invalidation rule, a position size and realistic execution assumptions.
What is the best setting for Long-Term Holder SOPR?
Long-Term Holder SOPR takes these inputs: spent outputs with age 155 days or more; price at creation time; price at spend time. There is no universal best setting for the tunable ones, so test them across instruments, regimes and out-of-sample periods and favor stable parameter regions over one historical winner.
Can Long-Term Holder SOPR be used by itself?
Only coins that move are counted, and long-dormant coins move rarely, so readings can be sparse. Moving coins to a new wallet counts as spending, which can mislead. For that reason it is read next to measures of direction, participation, valuation, liquidity and risk, not alone.
Does Long-Term Holder SOPR work on every timeframe?
The calculation (LTH-SOPR = sum(value at spend-date price) / sum(value at creation-date price), for outputs aged 155 days or more) can be run on any bar size, but behavior is not portable: a reading on a five-minute chart describes a very different market window from the same reading on a daily chart. Validate the exact timeframe before relying on it.
Why does Long-Term Holder SOPR give false signals?
Because the ratio sums values rather than averaging per coin, a few large old outputs can set the whole day's reading. Coins crossing the 155-day boundary enter the group from the short-term side, so membership changes daily without any holder action. Lag, noise and regime changes add to this, because market participants react to new information after the reading is calculated.
How should Long-Term Holder SOPR be backtested?
Rebuild Long-Term Holder SOPR from spent outputs with age 155 days or more using point-in-time data, write the rules before testing, include delisted securities where relevant, model realistic fills and costs, reserve a validation sample and compare with a simpler baseline.