Direct Answer
Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is SOPR computed without outputs that were created and spent within roughly one hour. It aims to remove short-lived, mostly non-economic movements such as moving coins between one's own wallets. A value above 1 means coins moved that day were, on average, sold or moved at a higher price than when they were last moved, so realized profit.
Adjusted SOPR: Formula, Meaning, Signals, Examples and How to Use It
How Is Adjusted SOPR Calculated?
Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is SOPR computed without outputs that were created and spent within roughly one hour. It aims to remove short-lived, mostly non-economic movements such as moving coins between one's own wallets.
Formula: aSOPR = sum(value of spent outputs at spend-date price) / sum(value of the same outputs at creation-date price), excluding outputs younger than 1 hour
Inputs:
- Spent outputs with creation and spend timestamps
- Coin price at creation time
- Coin price at spend time
- Age filter (commonly 1 hour)
Worked example. If the spent outputs were worth 1030 when spent against 1000 when created (illustrative USD millions), aSOPR is 1.03. The inputs are illustrative numbers, not market data.
Reading it. A value above 1 means coins moved that day were, on average, sold or moved at a higher price than when they were last moved, so realized profit. Below 1 means realized loss. The 1.0 line is often watched as a dividing level between profit-taking and loss-taking.
Limits. It measures only coins that moved on-chain, which is a minority of supply on any day, and says nothing about holders who did not spend. Cost basis is the last on-chain move, not the true purchase price, so transfers between a holder's own wallets reset it.
What is Adjusted SOPR?
Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is SOPR computed without outputs that were created and spent within roughly one hour. It aims to remove short-lived, mostly non-economic movements such as moving coins between one's own wallets.
How to use Adjusted SOPR
A value above 1 means coins moved that day were, on average, sold or moved at a higher price than when they were last moved, so realized profit. Below 1 means realized loss. The 1.0 line is often watched as a dividing level between profit-taking and loss-taking. A reading alone is never a buy or sell signal; it needs context from price structure, volume, volatility and the broader market regime.
Strengths
- Excluding outputs younger than about an hour filters out the fastest round trips, which are the most likely to be wallet housekeeping.
- A ratio of spent value to creation value gives a clean break-even level at 1.0, where coins were on average spent at the price they were created.
- Reproducible when the formula and data convention are fixed.
Weaknesses and limitations
- The one-hour cutoff is a hard age threshold, so coins moved just after that hour, such as between exchange accounts, are still included.
- Value-weighting lets a few very large outputs dominate the ratio, so a day's reading can reflect a small number of movers.
- Correlated indicators can create false confidence by repeating the same underlying information.
Editorial and risk note
This page is educational content, not individualized investment advice. It should not imply guaranteed prediction, accuracy or outperformance.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Adjusted SOPR a buy or sell signal?
No. A value above 1 means coins moved that day were, on average, sold or moved at a higher price than when they were last moved, so realized profit. It measures only coins that moved on-chain, which is a minority of supply on any day, and says nothing about holders who did not spend. A trade built on it still needs a trigger, an invalidation rule, a position size and realistic execution assumptions.
What is the best setting for Adjusted SOPR?
Adjusted SOPR is computed from spent outputs with creation and spend timestamps; coin price at creation time; coin price at spend time, so the choices that matter are the data convention and the window it is read over. Test those across instruments, regimes and out-of-sample periods instead of fitting one historical winner.
Can Adjusted SOPR be used by itself?
It measures only coins that moved on-chain, which is a minority of supply on any day, and says nothing about holders who did not spend. Cost basis is the last on-chain move, not the true purchase price, so transfers between a holder's own wallets reset it. For that reason it is read next to measures of direction, participation, valuation, liquidity and risk, not alone.
Does Adjusted SOPR work on every timeframe?
The calculation (aSOPR = sum(value of spent outputs at spend-date price) / sum(value of the same outputs at creation-date price), excluding outputs younger than 1 hour) can be run on any bar size, but behavior is not portable: a reading on a five-minute chart describes a very different market window from the same reading on a daily chart. Validate the exact timeframe before relying on it.
Why does Adjusted SOPR give false signals?
The one-hour cutoff is a hard age threshold, so coins moved just after that hour, such as between exchange accounts, are still included. Value-weighting lets a few very large outputs dominate the ratio, so a day's reading can reflect a small number of movers. Lag, noise and regime changes add to this, because market participants react to new information after the reading is calculated.
How should Adjusted SOPR be backtested?
Rebuild Adjusted SOPR from spent outputs with creation and spend timestamps using point-in-time data, write the rules before testing, include delisted securities where relevant, model realistic fills and costs, reserve a validation sample and compare with a simpler baseline.