What is the Existing-Home Sales?

Measures monthly sales of existing single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, based on transaction closings reported by Multiple Listing Services. NAR weights a sample of boards and MLSs to the four Census regions, converts the result to a seasonally adjusted annual rate, and also reports median price, inventory and months' supply.

NAR says the monthly data capture completed transactions. Median prices are computed monthly for the nation and the four Census regions and are not seasonally adjusted, because NAR says seasonal variances in prices are difficult to gauge and changes in a home's characteristics and size have a more pronounced effect on price.

Production facts:

  • Publisher: National Association of REALTORS®
  • Frequency: Monthly
  • Typical release time: 10:00 a.m. Eastern on the dates in the NAR statistical release schedule
  • Primary metric: Existing-home sales SAAR
  • Market sensitivity: High
  • Data type: Hard data
  • Economic indicator type: Coincident
  • Revision risk: Medium

Key components to watch

The headline (Existing-home sales SAAR) is the most widely quoted but rarely the most informative number. The components that follow reveal whether the headline result is broad-based or concentrated, improving or deteriorating, and consistent with prior trends.

  • Median existing-home price
  • Unsold inventory
  • Months' supply
  • Single-family sales
  • Condo and co-op sales
  • Sales by Census region

For any release with multiple components, the investor's task is not to memorize every number but to identify which components are most relevant to the current investment thesis and track those with the most care.

How to read the headline: actual versus expected

Markets react to the gap between the published Existing-home sales SAAR and the consensus forecast, not to the level alone. A stronger-than-expected or weaker-than-expected result is defined against that forecast, so check what was expected before reading the number.

The Existing-Home Sales carries medium revision risk: NAR revises seasonal adjustment factors and seasonally adjusted annual rates once a year, with the February release of revised (final) December data. Read any revision to the prior period together with the new figure.

Market impact by asset class

The Existing-Home Sales primarily affects the following markets: Homebuilders, REITs, Banks, Treasuries, Mortgage markets, Stocks.

Stronger than expected result: In an inflation-elevated, tightening environment, a stronger result typically pressures interest-rate-sensitive assets and can strengthen the dollar. In a growth-slowing environment, a stronger result can be equity-supportive if it reduces recession fears.

Weaker than expected result: In a growth-concern environment, a weaker result may reinforce concerns about economic deceleration. If the Fed is watching this specific indicator for policy calibration, a persistent pattern of below-consensus results may shift the rate path.

In-line result: In-line results typically produce muted market reactions unless there are significant component deviations from expectations. The market had already priced the consensus, so confirmation requires little repricing.

Revision risk and methodology notes

The Existing-Home Sales carries medium revision risk. NAR revises seasonal adjustment factors and seasonally adjusted annual rates once a year, with the February release of revised (final) December data. The revision covers the past three years of seasonally adjusted sales and months' supply, nationally and by region. Sales prices are not seasonally adjusted and are outside that annual factor revision.

Primary source: National Association of REALTORS®: Existing-Home Sales. Release calendar: National Association of REALTORS® schedule.

Publisher documents read for this page:

Common investor mistakes

  • Reacting to the headline without checking the components. The headline can diverge significantly from the underlying trend revealed by the components. A headline beat driven by a volatile component may not indicate the same strength as a broad-based improvement.
  • Ignoring revisions to prior periods. An initial strong number revised down in the following release tells a different story than a number that stands firm.
  • Not knowing what is consensus-priced. Reacting to a number without knowing what was already expected conflates information with noise. The market reaction is driven by the deviation from expectations, not by the level of the number.
  • Applying the same interpretation across different regimes. The same headline result has different implications depending on the Fed's current stance, the growth trend, and what is already priced into the yield curve and equity multiples.

Related releases

The Existing-Home Sales should be read alongside:

  • New Residential Construction
  • Housing Starts
  • Building Permits
  • Housing Completions
  • New Home Sales

Frequently asked questions

What is the Existing-Home Sales?

Measures monthly sales of existing single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, based on transaction closings reported by Multiple Listing Services. NAR weights a sample of boards and MLSs to the four Census regions, converts the result to a seasonally adjusted annual rate, and also reports median price, inventory and months' supply. It is published monthly by National Association of REALTORS®.

When is the Existing-Home Sales released?

The Existing-Home Sales is released by National Association of REALTORS® on a monthly schedule: 10:00 a.m. Eastern on the dates in the NAR statistical release schedule. Exact dates are on the publisher's release calendar.

How does the Existing-Home Sales affect markets?

The Existing-Home Sales primarily affects Homebuilders, REITs, Banks, Treasuries. Its typical market sensitivity is rated High. A result that comes in stronger than consensus expectations generally moves affected markets directionally, while a weaker result can have the opposite effect. The direction depends on the current macro regime and what is already priced into markets.

What is the revision risk for the Existing-Home Sales?

The Existing-Home Sales carries medium revision risk. NAR revises seasonal adjustment factors and seasonally adjusted annual rates once a year, with the February release of revised (final) December data. The revision covers the past three years of seasonally adjusted sales and months' supply, nationally and by region. Sales prices are not seasonally adjusted and are outside that annual factor revision.