How to Read the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)

What is the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)?

The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) collects each FOMC participant's projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate and inflation over the next several years and the longer run. Each projection rests on information at the time of the meeting and on the participant's own assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The SEP reports the median, central tendency and range.

GDP and inflation projections are percent changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the year shown. Unemployment is the fourth-quarter average, the funds rate is the year-end midpoint, and longer-run core PCE inflation projections are not collected.

Production facts:

• Publisher: Federal Reserve Board
• Frequency: Quarterly
• Typical release time: 2:00 p.m. ET at the March, June, September and December FOMC meetings
• Primary metric: Participant projections
• Market sensitivity: Very High
• Data type: Hard data
• Economic indicator type: Leading
• Revision risk: Low

Key components to watch

The headline (Participant projections) is the most widely quoted but rarely the most informative number. The components that follow reveal whether the headline result is broad-based or concentrated, improving or deteriorating, and consistent with prior trends.

• Change in real GDP
• Unemployment rate
• PCE inflation
• Core PCE inflation
• Federal funds rate path

For any release with multiple components, the investor's task is not to memorize every number but to identify which components are most relevant to the current investment thesis and track those with the most care.

How to read the headline: actual versus expected

Markets react to the gap between the published Participant projections and the consensus forecast, not to the level alone. A stronger-than-expected or weaker-than-expected result is defined against that forecast, so check what was expected before reading the number.

The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) carries low revision risk, so the figure published at release is the one to compare with the forecast and with the previous period.

Market impact by asset class

The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) primarily affects the following markets: Treasuries, Stocks, Fed funds futures, USD, Gold, Credit.

Stronger than expected result: In an inflation-elevated, tightening environment, a stronger result typically pressures interest-rate-sensitive assets and can strengthen the dollar. In a growth-slowing environment, a stronger result can be equity-supportive if it reduces recession fears.

Weaker than expected result: In a growth-concern environment, a weaker result may reinforce concerns about economic deceleration. If the Fed is watching this specific indicator for policy calibration, a persistent pattern of below-consensus results may shift the rate path.

In-line result: In-line results typically produce muted market reactions unless there are significant component deviations from expectations. The market had already priced the consensus, so confirmation requires little repricing.

Revision risk and methodology notes

The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) carries low revision risk. Participants submit projections in conjunction with each FOMC meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections, marked with an asterisk on the meeting calendar page. The September 2026 projection table carries a June projection row beneath each variable for comparison.

Primary source: Federal Reserve Board: Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

Publisher documents read for this page:

• Federal Reserve Board: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version
• Federal Reserve Board: Meeting calendars and information

Common investor mistakes

• Reacting to the headline without checking the components. The headline can diverge significantly from the underlying trend revealed by the components. A headline beat driven by a volatile component may not indicate the same strength as a broad-based improvement.
• Ignoring revisions to prior periods. An initial strong number revised down in the following release tells a different story than a number that stands firm.
• Not knowing what is consensus-priced. Reacting to a number without knowing what was already expected conflates information with noise. The market reaction is driven by the deviation from expectations, not by the level of the number.
• Applying the same interpretation across different regimes. The same headline result has different implications depending on the Fed's current stance, the growth trend, and what is already priced into the yield curve and equity multiples.

Related releases

The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) should be read alongside:

• Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
• FOMC Statement
• FOMC Press Conference
• Fed Dot Plot
• FOMC Minutes

Frequently asked questions