How to Read the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

What is the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report?

The Weekly Petroleum Status Report presents EIA's weekly estimates of U.S. crude oil and petroleum product supply and stocks. It draws on seven weekly supply surveys of refineries and gas processing plants, bulk terminals, product pipelines, crude oil stock holders, importers, blenders and fuel ethanol plants, plus two weekly price surveys. Weekly samples are chosen to cover about 90 percent of volumes.

Weekly domestic crude oil production is estimated from EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook model estimate for the Lower 48 and Gulf, together with Alaska reports, and EIA says most of the uncertainty in the weekly estimate is associated with the model forecast. Product supplied is called implied demand, and for individual products it equals production plus imports minus stock change minus exports.

Production facts:

• Publisher: U.S. Energy Information Administration
• Frequency: Weekly
• Typical release time: 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, with holiday shifts listed in the EIA schedule
• Primary metric: Commercial petroleum inventories
• Market sensitivity: High
• Data type: Hard data
• Economic indicator type: Coincident
• Revision risk: Low

Key components to watch

The headline (Commercial petroleum inventories) is the most widely quoted but rarely the most informative number. The components that follow reveal whether the headline result is broad-based or concentrated, improving or deteriorating, and consistent with prior trends.

• U.S. petroleum balance sheet
• Crude oil production and refiner inputs and utilization
• Refiner and blender net production
• Stocks of crude oil and petroleum products
• Imports and exports of crude oil and products
• Product supplied

For any release with multiple components, the investor's task is not to memorize every number but to identify which components are most relevant to the current investment thesis and track those with the most care.

How to read the headline: actual versus expected

Markets react to the gap between the published Commercial petroleum inventories and the consensus forecast, not to the level alone. A stronger-than-expected or weaker-than-expected result is defined against that forecast, so check what was expected before reading the number.

The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report carries low revision risk, so the figure published at release is the one to compare with the forecast and with the previous period.

Market impact by asset class

The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report primarily affects the following markets: Oil, Natural gas, Energy equities, Commodities, Inflation-sensitive assets.

Stronger than expected result: In an inflation-elevated, tightening environment, a stronger result typically pressures interest-rate-sensitive assets and can strengthen the dollar. In a growth-slowing environment, a stronger result can be equity-supportive if it reduces recession fears.

Weaker than expected result: In a growth-concern environment, a weaker result may reinforce concerns about economic deceleration. If the Fed is watching this specific indicator for policy calibration, a persistent pattern of below-consensus results may shift the rate path.

In-line result: In-line results typically produce muted market reactions unless there are significant component deviations from expectations. The market had already priced the consensus, so confirmation requires little repricing.

Revision risk and methodology notes

The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report carries low revision risk. EIA disseminates revised weekly data only if the revision is expected to substantively affect understanding of U.S. petroleum supplies. A needed revision appears in the next regularly scheduled release. Late submissions and resubmissions otherwise feed editing and imputation for future periods.

Primary source: U.S. Energy Information Administration: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Release calendar: U.S. Energy Information Administration schedule.

Publisher documents read for this page:

• U.S. Energy Information Administration: Weekly Petroleum Status Report Appendix B: Explanatory Notes and Detailed Methods Report
• U.S. Energy Information Administration: Weekly Petroleum Status Report Schedule
• U.S. Energy Information Administration: U.S. Weekly Supply Estimates

Common investor mistakes

• Reacting to the headline without checking the components. The headline can diverge significantly from the underlying trend revealed by the components. A headline beat driven by a volatile component may not indicate the same strength as a broad-based improvement.
• Ignoring revisions to prior periods. An initial strong number revised down in the following release tells a different story than a number that stands firm.
• Not knowing what is consensus-priced. Reacting to a number without knowing what was already expected conflates information with noise. The market reaction is driven by the deviation from expectations, not by the level of the number.
• Applying the same interpretation across different regimes. The same headline result has different implications depending on the Fed's current stance, the growth trend, and what is already priced into the yield curve and equity multiples.

Related releases

The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report should be read alongside:

• EIA Crude Oil Inventories
• EIA Gasoline Inventories
• EIA Distillate Inventories
• EIA U.S. Crude Oil Production
• EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

Frequently asked questions