What is the Retail Sales?
The Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey gives an early national estimate of monthly sales for retail and food services firms. It draws on a probability sample of about 4,800 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Estimates are adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.
Estimates are sample based, so each report flags changes whose 90 percent confidence interval includes zero, meaning there is insufficient statistical evidence that the change differs from zero. Figures are not adjusted for price changes.
Production facts:
- Publisher: U.S. Census Bureau
- Frequency: Monthly
- Typical release time: 8:30 a.m. ET on the dates in the Census Bureau economic indicator release schedule
- Primary metric: Advance retail sales MoM
- Market sensitivity: Very High
- Data type: Hard data
- Economic indicator type: Coincident
- Revision risk: Medium
Key components to watch
The headline (Advance retail sales MoM) is the most widely quoted but rarely the most informative number. The components that follow reveal whether the headline result is broad-based or concentrated, improving or deteriorating, and consistent with prior trends.
- Retail and food services, total
- Total excluding motor vehicle and parts
- Total excluding gasoline stations
- Motor vehicle and parts dealers
- Nonstore retailers
- Food services and drinking places
For any release with multiple components, the investor's task is not to memorize every number but to identify which components are most relevant to the current investment thesis and track those with the most care.
How to read the headline: actual versus expected
Markets react to the gap between the published Advance retail sales MoM and the consensus forecast, not to the level alone. A stronger-than-expected or weaker-than-expected result is defined against that forecast, so check what was expected before reading the number.
The Retail Sales carries medium revision risk: Advance estimates are revised one month later using the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and estimates are benchmarked to annual survey results once available. Read any revision to the prior period together with the new figure.
Market impact by asset class
The Retail Sales primarily affects the following markets: Stocks, Bonds, Rates, FX.
Stronger than expected result: In an inflation-elevated, tightening environment, a stronger result typically pressures interest-rate-sensitive assets and can strengthen the dollar. In a growth-slowing environment, a stronger result can be equity-supportive if it reduces recession fears.
Weaker than expected result: In a growth-concern environment, a weaker result may reinforce concerns about economic deceleration. If the Fed is watching this specific indicator for policy calibration, a persistent pattern of below-consensus results may shift the rate path.
In-line result: In-line results typically produce muted market reactions unless there are significant component deviations from expectations. The market had already priced the consensus, so confirmation requires little repricing.
Revision risk and methodology notes
The Retail Sales carries medium revision risk. Advance estimates are revised one month later using the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and estimates are benchmarked to annual survey results once available. Each report's Table 3 gives average and median absolute revisions to the month-to-month change. In the September 2026 report the July to August change was revised from up 1.1 percent to up 1.3 percent.
Primary source: U.S. Census Bureau: Retail Sales.
Publisher documents read for this page:
Common investor mistakes
- Reacting to the headline without checking the components. The headline can diverge significantly from the underlying trend revealed by the components. A headline beat driven by a volatile component may not indicate the same strength as a broad-based improvement.
- Ignoring revisions to prior periods. An initial strong number revised down in the following release tells a different story than a number that stands firm.
- Not knowing what is consensus-priced. Reacting to a number without knowing what was already expected conflates information with noise. The market reaction is driven by the deviation from expectations, not by the level of the number.
- Applying the same interpretation across different regimes. The same headline result has different implications depending on the Fed's current stance, the growth trend, and what is already priced into the yield curve and equity multiples.
Related releases
The Retail Sales should be read alongside:
- Retail Sales Control Group
- Retail Sales Ex Autos
- Personal Income
- Personal Consumption Expenditures
- Personal Saving Rate
Frequently asked questions
What is the Retail Sales?
The Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey gives an early national estimate of monthly sales for retail and food services firms. It draws on a probability sample of about 4,800 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Estimates are adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. It is published monthly by U.S. Census Bureau.
When is the Retail Sales released?
The Retail Sales is released by U.S. Census Bureau on a monthly schedule: 8:30 a.m. ET on the dates in the Census Bureau economic indicator release schedule. Exact dates are on the publisher's release calendar.
How does the Retail Sales affect markets?
The Retail Sales primarily affects Stocks, Bonds, Rates, FX. Its typical market sensitivity is rated Very High. A result that comes in stronger than consensus expectations generally moves affected markets directionally, while a weaker result can have the opposite effect. The direction depends on the current macro regime and what is already priced into markets.
What is the revision risk for the Retail Sales?
The Retail Sales carries medium revision risk. Advance estimates are revised one month later using the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and estimates are benchmarked to annual survey results once available. Each report's Table 3 gives average and median absolute revisions to the month-to-month change. In the September 2026 report the July to August change was revised from up 1.1 percent to up 1.3 percent.