U.S. Bear Market History and Recovery Reference
Direct answer: A bear market is conventionally defined as a 20%+ decline from a peak. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced 14 bear markets averaging a decline of approximately -35% and lasting approximately 9-10 months peak to trough. Recovery to prior peak averages approximately 3-4 years. The 2020 COVID bear market was the shortest on record at approximately 33 days.
U.S. bear markets: peak, trough, decline, and recovery (1929-2022)
| Bear market | Peak | Trough | Decline % | Duration (months) | Recovery (years) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great Depression | Sep 1929 | Jun 1932 | -86.2% | 33 | ~25 |
| 1937 Recession | Mar 1937 | Mar 1938 | -54.5% | 12 | ~9 |
| WWII | May 1946 | May 1947 | -28.0% | 12 | ~4 |
| 1956-57 Recession | Aug 1956 | Oct 1957 | -21.6% | 14 | ~2 |
| 1961-62 Flash | Dec 1961 | Jun 1962 | -29.2% | 6 | ~1.5 |
| 1968-70 | Nov 1968 | May 1970 | -36.1% | 18 | ~3 |
| 1973-74 Oil Crisis | Jan 1973 | Oct 1974 | -48.2% | 21 | ~7 |
| 1980-82 | Nov 1980 | Aug 1982 | -27.1% | 21 | ~2 |
| Black Monday 1987 | Aug 1987 | Dec 1987 | -33.5% | 4 | ~2 |
| 1990 Gulf War | Jul 1990 | Oct 1990 | -19.9% | 3 | ~0.5 |
| Dot-com bust | Mar 2000 | Oct 2002 | -49.1% | 31 | ~7 |
| Financial Crisis | Oct 2007 | Mar 2009 | -56.8% | 17 | ~5.5 |
| COVID crash | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | -33.9% | 1 | ~0.4 |
| 2022 Rate Shock | Jan 2022 | Oct 2022 | -25.4% | 9 | ~2 |
Source: NBER: Business Cycle Reference Dates. Last verified: September 2026.
Frequently asked questions
Are bear markets predictable?
Bear markets are not reliably predictable in timing, though warning signs often precede them: elevated valuations, yield curve inversion, declining credit availability, and slowing earnings growth. The challenge: these warning signs can persist for years before a bear market begins (the market can stay overvalued longer than investors can stay solvent waiting for a correction). Market timing studies consistently show that investors who exit the market when indicators warn tend to miss subsequent rallies and underperform stay-the-course investors over full cycles.
What should I do during a bear market?
Evidence-based recommendations: (1) don't sell equities unless your time horizon or circumstances have changed -- selling locks in losses and misses recoveries; (2) rebalance if equities fall well below target allocation (buy low); (3) continue dollar-cost averaging -- lower prices mean more shares purchased per dollar; (4) review and stress-test your financial plan; (5) focus on what you control (savings rate, costs, asset allocation) rather than unpredictable market direction. The most important bear market decision is the asset allocation you established when designing your portfolio, not what you do during the decline.
What is the difference between a correction and a bear market?
A stock market correction is typically defined as a 10-19.9% decline from a recent peak. A bear market is a 20%+ decline. Corrections are more frequent (occurring approximately every 1-2 years on average), shorter (usually weeks to a few months), and recover faster. Bear markets occur approximately every 3-5 years on average, last 9-21 months peak-to-trough, and take longer to recover. Not all corrections turn into bear markets; some are brief volatile periods quickly reversed. The distinction is definitional rather than based on economic fundamentals.