ISM Manufacturing PMI History
Direct answer: The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) measures U.S. manufacturing sector activity. Above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. The PMI fell below 50 for an unusually long 16 consecutive months from November 2022 through February 2024, the longest contraction period since 2000-2002, yet no NBER recession was called. As of mid-2024, the PMI was approximately 49-50 (borderline).
ISM Manufacturing PMI at Year End (Selected Years, 2000-2024)
| Year | ISM Manufacturing PMI |
|---|---|
| 2000 (dot-com bust) | 43.7 |
| 2001 | 44.7 |
| 2004 | 58.8 |
| 2007 | 48.4 |
| 2008 (financial crisis) | 32.4 |
| 2009 | 54.9 |
| 2010 | 57.0 |
| 2018 | 54.1 |
| 2019 | 47.8 |
| 2020 (supply chain recovery) | 60.7 |
| 2021 | 58.8 |
| 2022 | 48.4 |
| 2023 | 47.4 |
| 2024 est. | 48.9 |
Source: ISM: Manufacturing Report on Business. Last verified: September 2026.
Frequently asked questions
Why is PMI below 50 if the economy is growing?
PMI below 50 reflects only manufacturing sector contraction, not the whole economy. Manufacturing represents approximately 10-12% of U.S. GDP; services represent approximately 70-80%. The U.S. services sector (ISM Services PMI) remained above 50 throughout 2022-2024, supporting overall economic growth even as manufacturing contracted. Manufacturing is more sensitive to: (1) global trade slowdowns; (2) inventory correction cycles (over-ordering during COVID, then correction); (3) industrial demand cycles (capital equipment purchasing is easily deferred). Services are harder to defer (healthcare, restaurant meals, software subscriptions).
How is the PMI calculated?
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index based on monthly surveys of approximately 400 purchasing managers at U.S. manufacturing firms. Each respondent reports whether each component (New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories) is: Better/Higher (1.0), Same (0.5), or Worse/Lower (0.0). The Composite PMI = 20% New Orders + 20% Production + 20% Employment + 15% Supplier Deliveries + 15% Inventories. By design, 50 is the neutral point (equal number of 'better' and 'worse' responses). New Orders is the single most predictive component for future manufacturing activity.
What PMI level predicts a recession?
Research suggests the ISM Manufacturing PMI correlates with GDP growth: PMI above 50 is typically associated with GDP growth; below 50 with contraction in the manufacturing sector but not necessarily the economy. Historically, PMI readings below 45 for multiple months have preceded or occurred concurrent with recessions. The 2022-2024 period was unusual: PMI remained in the 46-49 range (mild contraction) for 16 months without NBER recession declaration, because the services sector more than offset manufacturing weakness. For recession risk assessment, economists weight the Services PMI more heavily given the U.S. economy's service sector dominance.