Direct Answer
The yield curve plots U.S. Treasury yields across maturities (3-month to 30-year). A normal curve slopes upward (long-term rates higher than short-term). An inverted curve (short-term higher than long-term) has preceded every U.S. recession since 1970. The 2-year/10-year curve inverted in July 2022 and remained inverted until September 2024, the longest sustained inversion since the 1980s.
Treasury Yield Curve History and Inversions
Treasury Yield Curve Snapshots (Selected Dates)
| Date | 3-Month | 2-Year | 10-Year | 30-Year | 2s10s Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2020 | 1.55% | 1.57% | 1.88% | 2.30% | +0.31% |
| Aug 2020 (COVID low) | 0.09% | 0.14% | 0.52% | 1.22% | +0.38% |
| Jan 2022 | 0.06% | 0.78% | 1.63% | 2.08% | +0.85% |
| Jul 2022 (inversion) | 2.38% | 3.05% | 2.93% | 3.10% | -0.12% |
| Oct 2022 (peak) | 4.03% | 4.48% | 3.96% | 3.97% | -0.52% |
| Dec 2022 | 4.42% | 4.43% | 3.88% | 3.97% | -0.55% |
| Jun 2023 (max inversion) | 5.42% | 4.87% | 3.84% | 3.85% | -1.03% |
| Dec 2023 | 5.33% | 4.43% | 3.97% | 4.20% | -0.46% |
| Sep 2024 (Fed cuts begin) | 5.02% | 3.64% | 3.81% | 4.09% | +0.17% |
| Dec 2024 | 4.37% | 4.25% | 4.58% | 4.78% | +0.33% |
| Dec 2025 | 3.67% | 3.47% | 4.18% | 4.84% | +0.71% |
| Oct 9, 2026 (latest) | 4.25% | 4.80% | 5.24% | 5.60% | +0.44% |
Source: U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates. Last verified: October 2026, rows from December 2024 onward taken from the Treasury daily par yield curve.
Frequently asked questions
Why does yield curve inversion predict recessions?
The yield curve inverts when short-term rates (controlled by the Fed) rise above long-term rates. This typically happens when: the Fed raises rates aggressively to fight inflation, and the bond market believes this will slow the economy (long-term rates fall to reflect future rate cuts and lower growth). The inversion represents the market pricing in a future recession and Fed rate cuts. Every U.S. recession since 1970 was preceded by a 2s10s inversion (6-18 months lead time typically). The 2022-2024 inversion was unusually long and deep (-1.03% at June 2023 peak) without a recession materializing through 2024, raising questions about whether this cycle is different.
What does yield curve steepening mean?
Yield curve steepening occurs when the spread between long-term and short-term rates widens. This happens when: (1) the Fed cuts short-term rates faster than long-term rates fall (typical at start of easing cycles); (2) inflation expectations rise (long-term rates rise while short-term rates are anchored by Fed policy); (3) economic growth outlook improves (long-term rates rise on growth optimism). Steep yield curves are generally positive for bank profitability (banks borrow short-term, lend long-term) and are associated with economic expansion.
Is the 2s10s the most important yield spread?
The 2-year/10-year spread is the most widely cited yield curve indicator, but other spreads are also tracked. The 3-month/10-year spread (the academic favorite for recession prediction research) also inverted in 2022 and has a similar record. The 5-year/30-year spread measures expectations for medium-term vs. long-term rates. The 2-year/30-year spread is the broadest measure. Each spread provides slightly different information about market expectations. New York Fed research favors the 3-month/10-year for recession probability modeling; financial media favors 2s10s for its simplicity and institutional following.
Cite This Page
If you reference this table in your own work, use the following citation format and add the date you accessed it:
Swoopr Editorial Team. (2026). Treasury Yield Curve History and Inversions. Swoopr Investment. https://www.getswoopr.com/tables/bonds/treasury-yield-curve-history/
Check the figures against the primary sources listed under References before you rely on or republish them; the series they come from are revised.