10-Year Treasury Yield History
Direct answer: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is the most-watched interest rate in the world. It peaked at 15.84% in September 1981 during the inflation-fighting era and reached a historic low of 0.52% in August 2020 during COVID pandemic emergency monetary policy. As of late 2024, yields were approximately 4.2-4.5%, up from near-zero in 2021.
10-Year Treasury Yield at Year End (Selected Years)
| Year | 10-Yr Yield (Year End) |
|---|---|
| 1980 | 12.43% |
| 1981 | 13.98% |
| 1982 | 10.54% |
| 1985 | 9.00% |
| 1990 | 8.08% |
| 1995 | 5.58% |
| 2000 | 5.12% |
| 2005 | 4.39% |
| 2007 | 4.03% |
| 2008 | 2.25% |
| 2009 | 3.84% |
| 2010 | 3.29% |
| 2011 | 1.88% |
| 2012 | 1.76% |
| 2013 | 3.03% |
| 2014 | 2.17% |
| 2015 | 2.27% |
| 2016 | 2.45% |
| 2017 | 2.41% |
| 2018 | 2.69% |
| 2019 | 1.92% |
| 2020 | 0.93% |
| 2021 | 1.52% |
| 2022 | 3.88% |
| 2023 | 3.97% |
| 2024 (est.) | 4.20% |
Source: St. Louis Fed FRED: 10-Year Treasury Rate. Last verified: September 2026.
Frequently asked questions
What does the 10-year Treasury yield tell us?
The 10-year Treasury yield is the risk-free rate benchmark for the U.S. economy. It reflects: (1) Federal Reserve policy (short-term rates influence but don't control the 10-year); (2) inflation expectations (higher expected inflation pushes yields up because investors demand compensation); (3) economic growth outlook (stronger growth pushes yields up); (4) global capital flows (international investors buying Treasuries push yields down). The 10-year yield directly affects mortgage rates (30-year fixed mortgages track the 10-year), corporate borrowing costs, and equity valuations (higher yields mean a higher discount rate, reducing stock values).
Why did the 10-year yield spike in 2022?
The 10-year yield rose from 1.52% (end 2021) to 3.88% (end 2022), a 236 basis point rise in one year. The cause: the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 425 basis points in 2022 to combat 9.1% CPI inflation, the highest since 1981. The Fed's aggressive rate hikes signaled that inflation was a sustained problem, pushing long-term yields higher as investors demanded inflation compensation. The full impact: the 30-year Treasury fell -39%, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index fell -13%, and mortgage rates doubled from approximately 3% to approximately 7%.
How does the 10-year yield affect stock valuations?
Higher 10-year yields reduce stock valuations through the discount rate mechanism. In discounted cash flow (DCF) models, future earnings are discounted at a rate that includes the risk-free rate (10-year Treasury). Higher risk-free rates mean future earnings are worth less in today's dollars. This effect is largest for long-duration stocks (high-growth companies with earnings far in the future). Technology stocks (long-duration) fell more than value/dividend stocks (shorter duration) in 2022 precisely because of this mechanism. The equity risk premium (expected stock return minus 10-year yield) also determines relative attractiveness: when yields rise to 4-5%, stocks become less relatively attractive versus risk-free bonds.