Commodity Return History Reference
Direct answer: Commodities have delivered near-zero real long-term returns as a broad asset class (Bloomberg Commodity Index averaged about 1.2% annually 2000-2024), but serve as inflation hedges and portfolio diversifiers. Gold averaged 8.5% annually 2000-2024. Individual commodities are highly volatile with returns driven by supply/demand cycles.
Commodity Annual Returns by Year (Selected)
| Year | Bloomberg Commodity Index | Gold | WTI Crude Oil | S&P GSCI | BCOM vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | +22.6% | -5.4% | +5.0% | +49.7% | Outperformed |
| 2002 | +32.1% | +25.6% | +57.0% | +32.1% | Outperformed |
| 2008 | -35.7% | +5.8% | -53.5% | -46.5% | Underperformed |
| 2009 | +18.9% | +24.0% | +77.9% | +13.5% | Underperformed |
| 2011 | -13.3% | +10.2% | +8.2% | -1.2% | Underperformed |
| 2014 | -17.0% | -1.5% | -45.9% | -33.1% | Underperformed |
| 2020 | -3.1% | +25.1% | -21.5% | -23.7% | Outperformed |
| 2022 | +16.1% | -0.3% | +6.7% | +26.0% | Outperformed |
| 2023 | -7.9% | +13.1% | -10.7% | -4.3% | Underperformed |
| 2024 | +0.6% | +26.5% | -2.8% | -3.0% | Underperformed |
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council, EIA. Last verified: September 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do commodities protect against inflation?
Commodities have historically provided moderate inflation protection over long periods, particularly energy and metals that are direct inputs to price indices. However, the relationship is inconsistent year-to-year. During the 2021-2022 inflation surge, commodities (especially energy) did protect investors. During the 1990s low-inflation period, commodities underperformed for over a decade.
What is the Bloomberg Commodity Index?
The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM, formerly Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index) tracks a diversified basket of commodity futures contracts across energy, agriculture, metals, and livestock. It uses a roll-based methodology that buys near-term futures contracts and rolls them forward before expiration, which creates roll yield drag in contango markets.
Why are commodity ETFs different from owning physical commodities?
Most commodity ETFs use futures contracts rather than holding physical assets (gold ETFs are an exception). Futures-based commodity exposure suffers from "roll yield" that can be negative (contango) or positive (backwardation) depending on the commodity market's supply/demand structure. Natural gas ETFs have famously underperformed spot prices due to persistent contango roll drag.