Key Takeaways
- What it is: The portion of eligible supply whose current price is above or below its last-movement price.
- How it is built: Each ledger unit is classified by comparing current market price with its reference acquisition or creation price.
- Core expression: Supply in profit percentage = units with current price above reference basis ÷ eligible supply.
- Best use: High profit share can accompany strong markets; rapid loss expansion can reveal stress. The distribution and holder cohort matter.
- Main limitation: The method does not know off-chain purchase prices, internal transfers can reset basis, and lost coins affect the denominator.
- Practical rule: Check whether recent internal transfers could be resetting cost-basis assumptions before treating the profit/loss split as holders' true economic position.
Who This Guide Is For
Supply in profit and loss answers a different question from NUPL, and the two are frequently substituted for each other incorrectly. NUPL asks how much value is unrealized; this metric asks how many coins are above water. A market can have most of its coins in profit while most of its value sits in loss, or the reverse.
Read this page if you need a headcount rather than a value weighting. The interpretation section explains when a headcount is the better instrument, which is mainly when you care about the breadth of positioning rather than its size.
Educational content. Not individualized financial advice.
What Does Supply in Profit Measure?
Supply in profit counts coins, not dollars. A coin is in profit if the current price exceeds the price at which it last moved, and in loss otherwise. The metric reports how much of the circulating supply falls on each side, usually as a percentage.
The counting is binary and unweighted by magnitude. A coin whose cost basis is one percent below the current price counts exactly as much as one bought at a tenth of the current price. That is the metric's defining property and the source of both its usefulness and its main failure mode: it measures how widespread profit is, not how deep.
Plain-language definition
Supply in profit is the percentage of all coins currently worth more than they were the last time they changed hands.
Technical definition
For each unspent output o with size units(o) and creation price P_create(o), the output is in profit when the current price exceeds P_create(o). Supply in profit is the sum of units(o) over outputs meeting that condition, divided by circulating supply. Note that the sum is over units, so the metric is unit-weighted even though the profit test itself is binary: a 500-coin output contributes 500 coins to whichever side it falls on.
How Is Supply in Profit Constructed?
The build is a single pass over the unspent output set plus a price comparison, which makes it computationally cheap relative to the spent-output metrics but no less dependent on the same reference data.
- Snapshot the unspent output set at a stated block height. Unlike flow metrics, this is a point-in-time state, so the height matters and should be recorded.
- Attach a creation price to every output from its creating block timestamp.
- Compare against one current price. A single scalar decides the entire partition.
- Sum units on each side and divide by circulating supply.
The single-price sensitivity
Because one scalar partitions the whole supply, the metric has a discontinuity problem the other holder metrics do not. Where a large block of supply shares a similar cost basis, a small price move flips all of it at once. A one percent price change can move supply in profit by several percentage points if it crosses a dense accumulation band, and by almost nothing if it does not. The series is therefore lumpy in a way that looks like a signal and is actually the shape of the cost-basis distribution.
This is also why the choice of which current price to use, and at what timestamp, has an outsized effect here compared with metrics that average across many prices.
Formula and Measurement Logic
Supply in profit = Σ units(o) for all o where price_now > price_at_creation(o), ÷ circulating supply
There is no arithmetic beyond a comparison and a sum, which means every interesting property of this metric comes from the distribution being summed over rather than from the formula. The right mental model is a histogram of supply by cost basis, with the current price as a vertical line: supply in profit is the area to the left of that line.
Reading it that way makes the behavior obvious. Where the histogram is dense, the metric moves fast. Where it is sparse, the metric barely responds. The underlying cost-basis distribution, published by some providers as a UTXO realized price distribution, contains strictly more information than the single percentage does.
| Input | Decision | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Snapshot height | Which block defines the supply state | Determines the whole partition |
| Current price | Feed and timestamp | Outsized: one scalar splits the supply |
| Creation price | Reference for each output's basis | Sets each coin's side of the line |
| Circulating supply | Denominator definition | Changes the percentage without changing the count |
| Lost coins | Included in the profit side | Structurally inflates supply in profit |
How Should Supply in Profit Be Interpreted?
Use this metric when breadth is the question. If you want to know how many holders are underwater rather than how much money is underwater, a headcount is the correct instrument and a value-weighted metric like NUPL is the wrong one.
Two readings are structurally sound.
- Rate of change tells you about density. Supply in profit moving several points on a small price move means the price just crossed a heavily accumulated band. That is real information about where cost basis is concentrated.
- Extremes describe positioning, not timing. Very high supply in profit means almost every coin is above water, which says nothing about whether the next move is up or down.
The comparison worth making is between this metric and NUPL. When a large share of coins is in profit but NUPL is modest, gains are broad and shallow, which typically means recent accumulation dominates. When few coins are in profit but NUPL is high, gains are narrow and deep, concentrated in old supply. Neither situation is visible from either metric alone.
Lost coins sit permanently on the profit side because their cost basis is near zero, putting a floor under the metric that has nothing to do with live holders.
Step-by-Step Workflow
- Record the snapshot block height, not just the date.
- Record which current price partitions the supply and at what timestamp.
- Pull the underlying cost-basis distribution if the provider publishes one. It contains everything the percentage does and more.
- Check whether a recent move crossed a dense band by comparing the metric's change against the price change.
- Compare against NUPL to separate breadth from depth.
- Note the structural floor created by long-immobile coins.
- Split by holder cohort before describing who is underwater.
Worked Hypothetical Scenario
Consider a simplified supply of 100 coins distributed across four cost-basis bands, with the current price at $50,000.
| Cost-basis band | Coins | Status at $50,000 |
|---|---|---|
| $5,000 | 20 | In profit |
| $48,000 | 45 | In profit |
| $52,000 | 25 | In loss |
| $70,000 | 10 | In loss |
Supply in profit is 65 of 100, or 65 percent. Now let price fall 5 percent to $47,500. The $48,000 band flips. Supply in profit becomes 20 of 100, or 20 percent.
A 5 percent price move produced a 45-point collapse in supply in profit. Nothing happened on chain. No coin moved, no holder acted, and the aggregate unrealized gain barely changed because the 45 coins that flipped were only marginally profitable to begin with. The entire move is the price line crossing a dense band in the cost-basis histogram.
This is why the rate of change is the informative part and why the raw percentage should never be read as a sentiment reading on its own.
What Can Make the Interpretation Wrong?
- Density illusion. Large swings in the percentage are produced by the shape of the cost-basis distribution, not by holder behavior. A dramatic-looking drop can occur with zero on-chain activity.
- Binary counting hides magnitude. A coin one dollar in profit and a coin ten times in profit are identical to this metric.
- Lost coins put a floor under it. Permanently immobile early supply sits on the profit side forever, so the metric cannot fall as far as live-holder positioning would suggest.
- Substituting it for NUPL. These answer different questions. Breadth and depth diverge routinely.
- Internal transfers reset cost basis to the transfer price, pushing coins to whichever side the current price implies with no change in ownership.
- Snapshot timing. Because it is a state metric, comparing two providers who snapshot at different heights or use different current prices compares two different partitions.
Cross-Network and Provider Comparison
Supply in profit needs a cost basis attached to every unit of outstanding supply, which is the same UTXO requirement that constrains realized capitalization. On Bitcoin it is a direct computation over the unspent output set.
On account-based chains, every account's balance must be decomposed into tranches with individual cost bases, reconstructed from transfer history under an inventory convention. Because the metric partitions on a strict inequality, small reconstruction errors flip units between the two sides rather than averaging out, so the account-based version is noticeably less reliable than the account-based versions of value-weighted metrics.
Chains where a large share of supply sits in smart contracts, such as lending pools or liquidity positions, need an explicit rule for whose cost basis applies to pooled units. Providers differ, and this can be a substantial share of supply on a mature DeFi chain.
Advanced Analytical Methods
Cost-basis distribution
The full histogram of supply by acquisition price, sometimes published as a UTXO realized price distribution, supersedes this metric. Supply in profit is one integral of that distribution; having the distribution lets you compute the metric at any hypothetical price and see exactly where the dense bands sit.
Cohort partitioning
Computing supply in profit separately for long-term and short-term holder supply separates structurally profitable old coins from the recent buyers who actually flip sides during a drawdown. The short-term series is far more responsive and far more informative about current stress.
Pairing with NUPL
Plotting supply in profit against NUPL on the same axis makes the breadth-versus-depth relationship visible. Divergence between the two is the useful observation.
Sensitivity testing
Recomputing the metric at prices five and ten percent above and below the current level shows how much of the reading is a stable feature and how much is an accident of where price happens to sit.
Practical Checklist
- I recorded the snapshot height and the partitioning price.
- I checked whether the recent move crossed a dense cost-basis band.
- I pulled the underlying distribution rather than relying on the single percentage.
- I compared against NUPL to separate breadth from depth.
- I accounted for the floor created by long-immobile supply.
- I split by cohort before describing who is underwater.
- I confirmed how pooled contract-held supply is attributed.
- I did not read the raw percentage as a sentiment level.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does supply in profit differ from NUPL?
Supply in profit counts coins; NUPL weights by value. A coin one percent above its cost basis counts the same as one ten times above it. A market can have most coins in profit while most value sits in loss, or the reverse, and neither situation is visible from one metric alone.
Why can supply in profit move sharply on a small price change?
A single current price partitions the whole supply, so where a large block of coins shares a similar cost basis, a small price move flips all of it at once. The size of the swing reflects the density of the cost-basis distribution at that price, not any change in holder behavior.
Do lost coins put a floor under supply in profit?
Yes. Permanently immobile early supply carries a cost basis near zero, so it sits on the profit side regardless of price. The metric therefore cannot fall as far as live-holder positioning alone would imply.
What is the cost-basis distribution and why does it matter more?
It is the full histogram of supply by acquisition price, published by some providers as a UTXO realized price distribution. Supply in profit is one integral of that histogram at the current price. Having the distribution lets you see exactly where the dense bands sit and recompute the metric at any hypothetical price.
Is supply in profit reliable on account-based chains?
Less so than on UTXO chains. Every account balance must be decomposed into tranches with individual cost bases under an inventory convention, and because the metric partitions on a strict inequality, reconstruction errors flip units between sides rather than averaging out.
Should the raw percentage be read as a sentiment level?
No. The level is heavily influenced by where price happens to sit relative to the cost-basis histogram and by the structural floor from immobile supply. The rate of change, read against the price change that produced it, carries more information than the level.
How does the short-term holder version differ?
Restricting to recently acquired coins removes the structurally profitable old supply and leaves the cohort that actually flips sides during a drawdown. The short-term series is far more responsive and more informative about current stress than the aggregate.
Why is supply in profit reported as a percentage rather than a coin amount?
Because the raw coin figure grows with issuance, which makes readings from different periods incomparable. Expressing it as a share of circulating supply removes that growth and produces a bounded number that can be set against its own history. The tradeoff is the standard one for a normalised measure: the percentage says nothing about how much supply that is in absolute terms, and on a network where supply has grown substantially the same percentage represents very different quantities at different dates.
How does supply in profit differ from the share of addresses in profit?
One counts coins and the other counts addresses, and they diverge whenever holdings are unevenly distributed. A small number of large addresses holding supply acquired cheaply can put most of the supply in profit while most addresses, holding small amounts bought recently, are underwater. The address version is more sensitive to the dust and address-splitting problems that affect any address count, while the supply version is dominated by the largest holdings. Reading both together is what reveals the split.
References
These sources should be reviewed during editorial verification. They support data structures and methods, not the hypothetical conclusion. Provider formulas, chain rules, and APIs can change, confirm current documentation before publication.
- Glassnode: Realized Capitalization Guide: Realized-cap methodology.
- Glassnode: Metric Catalog: Address, supply, valuation, and holder metrics.
- Coin Metrics: Active and Realized Market Capitalization: Realized capitalization methodology.
- Coin Metrics: Valuation Metrics: Realized-value and network valuation definitions.
- Coin Metrics: Network Data Glossary: Cross-network address, account, ledger, and UTXO definitions.
- Bitcoin Developer Guide: Transactions: UTXO transaction construction and spending.