Market History
Then vs. Now: Historical Market Comparisons
44 comparisons that connect historical crises to modern risk frameworks, showing which mechanisms are genuinely analogous and which structural differences change the lesson.
A Then vs. Now comparison answers a precise question: which features of a historical market crisis are present in a modern context, and which are tied to the era in ways that make direct analogy misleading. Each page below examines one historical event and one modern risk frame, identifies the comparable mechanisms, and states the structural differences that limit or sharpen the analogy.
What Is a Then vs. Now Comparison?
A Then vs. Now page is not a prediction. It maps the structural overlap between a completed historical episode and a modern risk frame, identifies which mechanisms are genuinely comparable, and states which institutional or regulatory changes limit the analogy. The goal is better scenario questions, not borrowed historical certainty.
All 44 Comparisons
- Great Inflation vs. Modern Inflation RegimesGreat Inflation (1965-1982) vs. Modern inflation regimes
- Volcker Disinflation vs. Modern Tightening CyclesVolcker Disinflation and 1981-82 Recession vs. Modern tightening cycles
- Panic of 1907 vs. Modern Bank-Run MechanicsPanic of 1907 vs. Modern bank-run mechanics
- Japan Asset Bubble vs. Modern Property BubblesJapanese Asset Price Bubble and Bust vs. Modern property/asset bubbles
- Flash Crash 2010 vs. Modern Electronic MarketsFlash Crash of May 6, 2010 vs. Modern electronic market structure
- GameStop Mania vs. Modern Social-Trading EpisodesGameStop and Meme-Stock Mania vs. Modern social-trading episodes
- FTX Collapse vs. Modern Digital-Asset CustodyFTX Collapse vs. Modern digital-asset custody
- 1973-74 Oil Shock vs. Modern Energy Shocks1973-74 Oil Shock and Bear Market vs. Modern energy shocks
- Great Inflation vs. Modern Inflation and Deflation RiskGreat Inflation (1965-1982) vs. Modern inflation and deflation risk
- Volcker Disinflation vs. Modern Rate-Shock RiskVolcker Disinflation and 1981-82 Recession vs. Modern interest-rate shocks risk
- 1994 Bond Selloff vs. Modern Rate-Shock Risk1994 Bond Market Selloff vs. Modern interest-rate shocks risk
- 2013 Taper Tantrum vs. Modern Rate-Shock Risk2013 Taper Tantrum vs. Modern interest-rate shocks risk
- 1973-74 Oil Shock vs. Modern Commodity Shock Risk1973-74 Oil Shock and Bear Market vs. Modern commodity shocks risk
- 1978-79 Oil Shock vs. Modern Commodity Shock Risk1978-79 Oil Shock vs. Modern commodity shocks risk
- Hunt Brothers Silver Crisis vs. Modern Commodity RiskSilver Thursday / Hunt Brothers Silver Crisis vs. Modern commodity shocks risk
- Panic of 1907 vs. Modern Banking Crisis RiskPanic of 1907 vs. Modern banking crises risk
- Savings and Loan Crisis vs. Modern Banking RiskSavings and Loan Crisis vs. Modern banking crises risk
- Turkey 2000-01 Crisis vs. Modern Banking RiskTurkey Financial Crisis 2000-01 vs. Modern banking crises risk
- Japan Asset Bubble vs. Modern Financial Bubble RiskJapanese Asset Price Bubble and Bust vs. Modern financial bubbles risk
- Dot-Com Bubble vs. Modern Financial Bubble RiskDot-Com Bubble vs. Modern financial bubbles risk
- Bretton Woods Collapse vs. Modern Currency Crisis RiskBretton Woods Collapse and Nixon Shock vs. Modern currency crises risk
- Black Wednesday vs. Modern Currency Crisis RiskERM Crisis / Black Wednesday vs. Modern currency crises risk
- Tequila Crisis vs. Modern Currency Crisis RiskMexican Peso Crisis (Tequila Crisis) vs. Modern currency crises risk
- Latin American Debt Crisis vs. Modern Sovereign Debt RiskLatin American Debt Crisis vs. Modern sovereign debt crises risk
- Mexico 1982 Debt Crisis vs. Modern Sovereign Debt RiskMexican Debt Crisis 1982 vs. Modern sovereign debt crises risk
- Argentina 2001 Default vs. Modern Sovereign Debt RiskArgentina 2001-02 Default and Convertibility Collapse vs. Modern sovereign debt crises risk
- Mt. Gox Collapse vs. Modern Crypto Crisis RiskMt. Gox Collapse vs. Modern crypto crises risk
- DAO Hack and Ethereum Fork vs. Modern Crypto RiskDAO Hack and Ethereum Fork vs. Modern crypto crises risk
- ICO Boom and Bust vs. Modern Crypto Crisis RiskICO Boom and Bust 2017-2018 vs. Modern crypto crises risk
- SPAC Boom and Bust vs. Modern Investor Mania RiskSPAC Boom and Bust 2020-2022 vs. Modern investor manias risk
- GameStop Mania vs. Modern Investor Mania RiskGameStop and Meme-Stock Mania vs. Modern investor manias risk
- Flash Crash 2010 vs. Modern Market-Structure RiskFlash Crash of May 6, 2010 vs. Modern exchange and market-structure failures risk
- Enron Collapse vs. Modern Corporate Collapse RiskEnron Collapse vs. Modern corporate collapses risk
- WorldCom Fraud vs. Modern Corporate Collapse RiskWorldCom Accounting Fraud and Bankruptcy vs. Modern corporate collapses risk
- Archegos Collapse vs. Modern Corporate Collapse RiskArchegos Capital Collapse vs. Modern corporate collapses risk
- Madoff Scheme vs. Modern Financial Fraud RiskBernard Madoff Ponzi Scheme Collapse vs. Modern financial fraud risk
- UK Gilt Crisis 2022 vs. Modern Bond Market RiskUK Gilt Crisis / LDI Shock 2022 vs. Modern bond-market crises risk
- Great Depression vs. Modern Recession and Depression RiskGreat Depression vs. Modern recessions and depressions risk
- 1929 Crash vs. Modern Market Crash RiskStock Market Crash of 1929 vs. Modern market crashes risk
- Black Monday 1987 vs. Modern Market Crash RiskBlack Monday 1987 vs. Modern market crashes risk
- China 2015 Turbulence vs. Modern Market Crash RiskChina Stock-Market Turbulence 2015 vs. Modern market crashes risk
- Gulf War Shock vs. Modern Geopolitical Event RiskGulf War Oil and Market Shock 1990-91 vs. Modern wars and geopolitical events risk
- September 11 Market Shock vs. Modern Geopolitical RiskSeptember 11 Market Shock vs. Modern wars and geopolitical events risk
- Brexit Shock vs. Modern Geopolitical Event RiskBrexit Referendum Market Shock vs. Modern wars and geopolitical events risk
How to Use These Comparisons
Each page links to the primary case study for the historical event. Read the case study first to understand the historical mechanism precisely, then read the comparison to see which elements carry forward to the modern context. The comparison dimensions listed on each page are the analytical starting point: measure whether those dimensions are present in your current portfolio or market environment before treating the historical episode as a guide to current risks.
Because the modern side of every comparison changes over time, each page carries a last-reviewed date. A comparison based on stale current-state evidence is not useful. The pages in this series require a fresh sourced review of current data at publication and regular updates when conditions in the relevant dimensions change materially.