Direct Answer
A triangle measured move projects a price target by taking the triangle's maximum height (the widest vertical distance between its two trendlines, usually measured near the start of the pattern) and adding that distance to the breakout level for a bullish breakout, or subtracting it from the breakdown level for a bearish one. The calculation assumes the price move following the breakout will roughly match the size of the range that preceded it, an assumption drawn from the idea that a compressed range stores up potential movement that gets released on the breakout. It is a rough estimate, not a guaranteed objective. Published research on classical chart patterns finds mixed and inconsistent evidence for standard price-target methods, so a measured-move number should inform a reward-to-risk calculation, not replace a defined invalidation level or stand in as a promise of where price will go.
Key Takeaways
- The formula is simple: triangle height added to (or subtracted from) the breakout level, but "height" itself requires a choice about which point on the pattern to measure from.
- The most common convention measures height at the triangle's widest point, near where the pattern begins, not at the breakout point where the range has already compressed toward the apex.
- The measured move assumes the compressed range's stored volatility is roughly conserved and released after the breakout, an assumption with weak, mixed empirical support rather than a proven physical law of markets.
- A breakout that occurs late in the pattern, close to the apex, has less realistic room to reach a target calculated from the pattern's original, wider height.
- The target is a planning input for a reward-to-risk calculation, it should never substitute for a separately defined invalidation level.
- Distance to the next real support/resistance level, prior swing highs/lows, and round numbers often matter more for where a move actually stalls than the raw measured-move arithmetic.
Definition and Formula
For a bullish (upward) triangle breakout:
Target = Breakout price + (Triangle high − Triangle low)
For a bearish (downward) triangle breakdown:
Target = Breakdown price − (Triangle high − Triangle low)
The quantity in parentheses, the triangle's height, is the same in both directions: the vertical distance between the highest high and the lowest low that make up the pattern's boundaries. What differs is whether that height is added above the breakout point or subtracted below the breakdown point, depending on which way price actually exits the pattern. This is the same height-projection logic used for the general measured move continuation concept, applied specifically to a converging-trendline triangle rather than a flag, pennant, or channel.
Inputs and Assumptions
Which High and Low to Use
The most widely used convention measures the triangle's height at its starting edge, the widest point, using the first significant swing high and swing low that define the pattern's boundaries. Some traders instead measure at the exact point of breakout, using the trendline values at that specific bar, which will always be a smaller number than the starting height because the trendlines have converged. Using the wider, starting-point height produces a more ambitious (and, by definition, less frequently reached) target than using the narrower, breakout-point height. Neither convention is objectively "correct"; the calculation should be applied consistently and disclosed alongside any target that gets communicated or acted on.
The Core Assumption: Conserved Range
The measured move rests on an assumption borrowed from continuation-pattern logic generally: that a security's price tends to move roughly as far after a breakout as the range it spent compressing beforehand, because the narrowing range represents accumulated buying or selling pressure that had nowhere to go until the breakout released it. This is a heuristic, not a law of price behavior, and it does not have a rigorous, universally agreed theoretical basis; it is best treated as a rough, order-of-magnitude planning estimate rather than a forecast with a known probability of being reached.
Timing of the Breakout Relative to the Apex
A triangle's apex is the point where its two trendlines would eventually converge to a single price. A breakout that occurs early in the pattern, well before the apex, has the pattern's full original height and plenty of remaining time and room to work toward a target calculated from that height. A breakout occurring very late, close to the apex, has already given up much of the pattern's compressed range, and the same target, calculated from the original, wider height, sits further (in relative terms) from a breakout point that has less momentum behind it. Traders who apply the measured-move formula mechanically regardless of where in the pattern the breakout occurs are implicitly assuming the pattern's "stored energy" is undiminished by the compression that has already happened, an assumption that gets weaker the closer the breakout is to the apex.
Volatility and Instrument-Specific Behavior
The dollar or percentage size of a measured-move target scales with the security's own volatility and price level; a triangle on a low-volatility, large-cap stock and a similarly shaped triangle on a small-cap or a crypto asset can imply very different percentage moves for the same visual pattern. A target should always be evaluated in the context of the specific instrument's normal trading range, not treated as a universal percentage expectation.
Worked Example
The following is an original, hypothetical example with invented numbers, not a historical trade or real security.
An illustrative stock forms a symmetrical triangle. At the pattern's widest point, near its start, the swing high is $80.00 and the swing low is $68.00, giving a triangle height of $80.00 − $68.00 = $12.00. Roughly two-thirds of the way through the pattern's length toward the apex, price closes at $75.40, above the upper (descending) trendline, confirming a bullish breakout.
Using the wider, starting-point height: Target = $75.40 + $12.00 = $87.40.
For comparison, using the narrower height measured at the breakout point itself, where the trendlines had already converged to a $6.50 spread: Target = $75.40 + $6.50 = $81.90.
The two conventions produce meaningfully different numbers, $87.40 versus $81.90, from the same breakout. A trader planning a reward-to-risk ratio needs to know, and disclose, which convention produced the number being used. If the stock's own invalidation level for this trade is $72.00 (a close back below the most recent higher low inside the pattern), entry at $75.40 implies $3.40 of risk per share. Against the more conservative $81.90 target, that's a reward of $6.50 per share, roughly a 1.9:1 reward-to-risk ratio; against the more ambitious $87.40 target, it's $12.00 per share, roughly 3.5:1. Neither ratio guarantees the target will be reached; both describe the trade's shape if it plays out as planned.
Interpretation
A measured-move target is most useful as one input alongside other technical evidence, not as a standalone prediction. It tells a trader roughly how far a breakout could plausibly travel if the pattern behaves the way similarly shaped patterns often do, giving a rough basis for a reward-to-risk calculation and for deciding whether a trade's potential payoff justifies its defined risk. It does not tell a trader whether the breakout will succeed at all, when the target (if reached) will be reached, or what will happen to price after the target is hit. A target that lines up with an independent piece of structure, a prior swing high or low, a round number, a longer-term trendline, carries more weight than one that sits in an area with no other technical support for it, since price often reacts to real supply/demand levels regardless of what a single pattern's arithmetic implies.
Limitations
- No guarantee of being reached. Price frequently stalls before a measured-move target, reverses well short of it, or overshoots it substantially; the target is a planning estimate, not an objective probability.
- Sensitive to which height convention is used. As the worked example shows, measuring from the pattern's start versus its breakout point can produce materially different numbers from the identical chart.
- Weaker for late-pattern breakouts. A breakout close to the apex has less realistic distance and momentum to travel the full projected distance implied by the pattern's original, wider height.
- Ignores intervening structure. The formula doesn't account for support/resistance levels, prior swing points, or round numbers that sit between the breakout and the calculated target, and that structure often matters more for where price actually stalls.
- Ignores broader market and volatility context. A target calculated in isolation says nothing about whether the overall market, sector, or the instrument's own volatility regime supports a move of that size in the available time.
- Not a substitute for invalidation. A target estimates upside if the trade works; it provides no information about the price level that proves the trade wrong, which needs to be defined separately.
Practical Checklist
Before calculating a target: confirm which height convention will be used (starting-point vs. breakout-point) and apply it consistently; identify the exact swing high and swing low that define the pattern's boundaries.
When evaluating the target: check whether it lines up with independent structure (prior swings, round numbers, longer-term trendlines); consider how far into the pattern's life the breakout occurred relative to the apex; scale the target's implied percentage move against the instrument's normal volatility.
Before entering the trade: define invalidation separately from the target; calculate the reward-to-risk ratio using both the target and the invalidation level; size the position from the invalidation distance, not from the target.
What the Target Calculation Quietly Assumes
The conventional triangle target projects the formation's widest span forward from the break. Behind that arithmetic sits an assumption worth stating: that the energy stored during the compression will express itself in a move proportional to the compression's size. There is no established mechanism guaranteeing that relationship.
Treat the number as one reference among several rather than as the objective. Compare it against nearby levels from the chart's own history, and where the projection sits beyond a well-defended level, the level is usually the more informative of the two. A target with nothing between it and the entry is a different proposition from one with three prior highs in the way.
The mistake is scaling risk to the projected target. A large projection makes the risk-reward arithmetic look attractive on paper, and the arithmetic is only as good as the probability of reaching the target, which the projection method does not estimate.
The measurement also depends on where the triangle is judged to begin. Including an earlier swing widens the formation and enlarges the target substantially, and that choice is made by the analyst rather than determined by the data.
FAQ
How do you calculate a triangle's measured-move target?
Measure the triangle's maximum height (the difference between its highest high and lowest low), then add that distance to the breakout price for an upward breakout, or subtract it from the breakdown price for a downward breakout.
Should I measure triangle height at the start of the pattern or at the breakout point?
Both conventions are used. Measuring at the pattern's widest starting point produces a larger, more ambitious target; measuring at the breakout point, where the trendlines have already converged, produces a smaller, more conservative one. Pick one convention and apply it consistently rather than switching between them.
Is a triangle measured-move target guaranteed to be reached?
No. It is a rough estimate based on the idea that a compressed range's stored movement gets released after a breakout, an assumption with weak, inconsistent empirical support. Price often stalls before the target, reverses short of it, or moves well past it.
Does a late breakout near the triangle's apex still reach the full measured-move target?
Less reliably. A breakout close to the apex has already given up much of the pattern's original compressed range and momentum, so a target calculated from the pattern's full original height is a more ambitious assumption for a late breakout than for an early one.
Can I use the measured-move target as my stop-loss reference?
No. The target estimates potential upside if the breakout works; it provides no information about the level that would prove the trade wrong. Invalidation should be set separately, typically from market structure like a close back inside the pattern or through the opposite boundary.
What percentage of triangle breakouts actually reach the full measured target?
Published figures vary widely between studies because they use different definitions, markets, and periods, and no single number is well established. The more useful practice is measuring it on your own instrument and timeframe, since the answer depends heavily on both. Treating any published completion rate as a general property of triangles imports a precision the underlying research does not support.
Should the measured target be reduced when the breakout occurs late in the pattern?
Many practitioners do scale the projection down for late breakouts, on the reasoning that the compression driving the move has largely dissipated by the time the boundaries have nearly converged. This is a judgment rather than a rule with an established adjustment factor. Where it matters most is in deciding whether the trade offers enough distance to be worth taking at all.
Is there a difference in measured-move behaviour between ascending, descending, and symmetrical triangles?
The projection method is the same for all three, since it depends only on the pattern's height. What differs is the prior context each typically forms in, and the direction each more often resolves toward. Because measured targets depend on the move continuing after the break, differences in completion rates between the three types reflect breakout reliability rather than anything about the measurement itself.
How should a measured target be combined with other levels on the chart?
A projected target that sits just beyond a significant prior high or low is less likely to be reached than one in open space, because the intervening level provides a reason for the move to stall. Checking what stands between the entry and the target, rather than only the distance to it, produces a more realistic assessment. Where a strong level sits well before the target, that level is the more practical objective.