--- title: "Trade Expectancy & R-Multiple Calculator" description: "Calculate gross and net trade expectancy in R and dollars. Enter win rate, average win/loss R, costs, and planned risk to see expected value." canonical: https://www.getswoopr.com/tools/trade-expectancy-r-multiple-calculator/ source: "Swoopr Investment: https://www.getswoopr.com" --- Risk Management Tools # Trade Expectancy & R-Multiple Calculator Does your strategy have an edge, or just winning streaks? Enter your win rate, average win and loss in R, and per-trade costs to see gross and net expectancy, expected dollars per trade, and the exact win rate your strategy needs to break even. Search guides, glossary terms, tools and answers Search Learn risk management first Go to calculator **Direct answer:** Trade expectancy is the average profit or loss per trade expressed in R-multiples, calculated as win rate times average win minus loss rate times average loss, where R is the amount risked on each trade. This calculator lets you enter your win rate, average win, and average loss to compute gross expectancy, net expectancy after commissions, and required win rate at your current reward-to-risk ratio. ## What Is Trade Expectancy? Trade expectancy measures the average amount you expect to make, or lose, per trade if you ran the same setup many times. It combines win rate with the size of your average win and average loss into a single number. A strategy with a positive expectancy has a mathematical edge; a negative expectancy strategy loses money over time regardless of individual winning streaks. Expectancy is expressed in **R-multiples**. R is the amount you risk on a single trade, your planned stop distance times your position size. Quoting results in R keeps the math comparable across different position sizes and account sizes: a 0.50R expectancy means you earn half your risk on every trade on average. Gross expectancy (R) = Win rate × Avg win (R) − Loss rate × Avg loss (R) Net expectancy (R) = Gross expectancy − Cost per trade (R) Expected $ per trade = Net expectancy × Planned risk ($) Break-even win rate = (Avg loss R + Cost R) ÷ (Avg win R + Avg loss R) The **break-even win rate** is the minimum win rate at which the strategy covers its costs and breaks even. Any win rate above it produces positive expectancy; below it, the strategy destroys capital even when individual winners are large. All calculation happens locally in your browser. No values are sent to any server or captured in analytics. ## Trade Expectancy Calculator Results are mathematical estimates based on historical inputs. Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice. Strategy Statistics Win rate (%) Percentage of trades that close as winners. Must be between 0 and 100. Average win (R) Average profit on winning trades expressed as a multiple of your risk (R). A 2R win returns twice the amount risked. Average loss (R) Average loss on losing trades as a positive R-multiple. Enter 1.0 if losers always hit the planned stop. Enter a smaller value if you cut losers early on average. Number of historical trades (optional) How many trades the statistics are based on. Fewer than 30 trades may not reliably reflect the strategy's true edge. Costs & Risk All-in cost per trade (R) Total round-trip friction, commissions, spread, and slippage, expressed in R. If you risk $200 per trade and friction costs $10 total, enter 0.05 (10 ÷ 200). Enter 0 for a frictionless baseline. Planned risk per trade ($) Dollar amount risked per trade, your position size multiplied by the distance to your stop. Used to convert R into dollar expectancy. Not transmitted anywhere. Calculate Clear ### Results Low sample size: statistics based on fewer than 30 trades are unreliable. The expectancy may not reflect the strategy's true long-run edge. Collect more data before drawing conclusions. Negative net expectancy: these inputs produce a losing strategy. Each trade destroys capital on average. Improve win rate, cut average losers, grow average winners, or reduce costs before trading this setup live. #### Gross Expectancy N/A R per trade, before costs #### Net Expectancy N/A R per trade, after all-in costs #### Expected $ per Trade N/A Net expectancy × planned risk #### Break-Even Win Rate N/A Minimum win rate to cover costs Win rate entered N/A Loss rate N/A Average win (R) N/A Average loss (R) N/A Win/loss R ratio N/A Cost per trade (R) N/A Planned risk per trade N/A Net expectancy (R) N/A ### Cost Sensitivity How net expectancy changes at different per-trade cost levels, holding win rate and average win/loss constant. Your entered cost is highlighted. | Cost (R) | Net Expectancy (R) | Expected $ / Trade | Edge | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Copy specification Results are mathematical projections from the inputs you provided. They assume constant win rate, average win, and average loss across all trades, a simplification that does not hold in live markets. This calculator does not account for position sizing variation, correlation between trades, drawdown dynamics, or changing market conditions. Use results as a planning baseline, not a prediction. ## Methodology The calculator applies the four formulas shown above directly to your inputs, with no smoothing, rounding beyond display precision, or hidden adjustments: - **Gross expectancy (R)** = win rate × average win (R) − loss rate × average loss (R), where loss rate is `1 − win rate`. - **Net expectancy (R)** = gross expectancy − cost per trade (R). - **Expected dollars per trade** = net expectancy (R) × planned risk in dollars. - **Break-even win rate** = (average loss R + cost R) ÷ (average win R + average loss R). This is undefined when average win R and average loss R are both zero. - **Win/loss R ratio** = average win R ÷ average loss R. This is undefined when average loss R is zero. The cost-sensitivity table recomputes net expectancy and dollar expectancy at five fixed cost levels, 0, 0.05R, 0.10R, 0.15R, 0.20R, plus your entered cost value if it doesn't already match one of those levels, so you can see how sensitive the result is to cost assumptions without re-entering numbers. ### Assumptions and limitations - **Inputs are historical statistics you supply**, win rate, average win/loss in R, and cost per trade. The calculator does not pull trade history automatically and does not verify that your inputs are representative of a large enough sample. - **Assumes R-multiples are computed consistently.** The math is only meaningful if "1R" means the same dollar risk (planned stop distance × position size) across every trade in your sample. Inconsistent stop placement or position sizing distorts both the expectancy and the win/loss ratio. - **Expectancy is an average, not a guarantee for any single trade.** A positive expectancy strategy can still produce a losing streak, the calculator does not model sequence-of-returns risk, drawdown probability, or risk of ruin. - **Cost per trade is a single R value you provide.** Real trading costs (commissions, spread, slippage) can vary trade to trade; the sensitivity table shows a fixed set of scenarios, not a distribution. - All calculation happens locally in your browser using the inputs on the page; nothing is fetched from or sent to a server. ## Related Reading - [Risk Management: hub](https://www.getswoopr.com/risk-management/) - [Trading Strategies: apply expectancy to strategy design](https://www.getswoopr.com/stocks/trading-strategies/) - [Backtesting: measure historical R-multiples from real trades](https://www.getswoopr.com/stocks/backtesting/) - [Free Stock & Crypto Trading Tools](https://www.getswoopr.com/tools/) the section this guide belongs to - [APY / Effective Yield Calculator](https://www.getswoopr.com/tools/apy-effective-yield-calculator/) a companion guide in this cluster - [Balance Transfer Calculator: The Fee Against the Interest It Buys Out](https://www.getswoopr.com/tools/balance-transfer-calculator/) a companion guide in this cluster - [CD Ladder Builder](https://www.getswoopr.com/tools/cd-ladder-builder/) a companion guide in this cluster - [Company Metric Comparison Dashboard](https://www.getswoopr.com/tools/company-fundamentals-comparison/) a companion guide in this cluster - [Compound Growth & Contribution Calculator](https://www.getswoopr.com/tools/compound-growth-calculator/) a companion guide in this cluster - [Credit Card Payoff Calculator: What the Minimum Payment Actually Costs](https://www.getswoopr.com/tools/credit-card-payoff-calculator/) a companion guide in this cluster ## References - [CFA Institute Research and Policy Center](https://rpc.cfainstitute.org/): general methodology background for the win-rate, R-multiple, and expectancy conventions this calculator applies. Results are mathematical projections from the win rate, average win, and average loss you enter, holding those inputs constant, they are a planning baseline, not a prediction of future trading results.