---
title: "Yield Curve Inversion History"
description: "Historical record of U.S. yield curve inversions and subsequent recessions from 1978 to 2024, including the 2022-2024 inversion that lasted over 24 months."
canonical: https://www.getswoopr.com/tables/bonds/yield-curve-inversion-history/
source: "Swoopr Investment: https://www.getswoopr.com"
---

## Direct Answer



> Every U.S. recession since 1970 was preceded by a yield curve inversion (2-year Treasury yield exceeding 10-year Treasury yield). The lead time from inversion to recession has averaged 12-18 months. The 2022-2024 inversion was the deepest and longest since the early 1980s; the inversion ended in September 2024, and NBER's chronology lists no cycle peak after February 2020, the longest post-inversion period without a dated recession on record.








# Yield Curve Inversion History and Recession Timing



## Yield Curve Inversions and Subsequent Recessions



| Inversion Period | Max Inversion (2s10s) | Subsequent Recession | Months: Inversion to Recession |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1978-1980 | -2.4% | 1980 recession | ~12 months |
| 1980-1981 | -3.1% | 1981-82 recession | ~6 months |
| 1989 | -0.5% | 1990-91 recession | ~16 months |
| 2000 | -0.5% | 2001 recession | ~14 months |
| 2006-2007 | -0.2% | 2007-09 recession | ~16 months |
| 2019 (brief) | -0.05% | No recession attributed (COVID was external shock) | N/A |
| 2022-2024 | -1.07% | No NBER-dated recession (latest dated peak: February 2020) | Inversion ended September 2024 |



Note: NBER officially dates recessions; the 2022-2024 inversion was record-long and ended in September 2024; NBER's chronology lists no cycle peak after February 2020.



Source: [St. Louis Fed FRED: 10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury Spread](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y). Last verified: October 2026.



## Frequently asked questions



Has the yield curve ever predicted a recession that didn't happen?

Yes, though only once cleanly: a brief inversion in 2019 was followed by COVID in 2020, but most economists consider that an external shock rather than a business cycle recession caused by the inversion. The 2022-2024 inversion (as of NBER's published chronology) had not been followed by an NBER-dated recession, the longest post-inversion non-recession period since the 1970s. Explanations: (1) the economy was unusually resilient due to remaining pandemic fiscal stimulus effects; (2) labor market strength prevented consumer spending decline; (3) housing market had enough fixed-rate mortgages to resist rate shock; (4) AI investment boom supported business spending.



How does yield curve inversion hurt the economy?

Yield curve inversion does not just predict recessions -- it can cause them through credit channel effects. Banks borrow at short-term rates (deposits, fed funds) and lend at long-term rates (mortgages, auto loans, corporate loans). When the yield curve inverts, this net interest margin (NIM) becomes negative or near-zero, making lending unprofitable. Banks respond by tightening lending standards, reducing loan volume. Fewer loans mean less investment, fewer new businesses, less consumer spending. This credit channel effect typically takes 12-18 months to fully propagate through the economy, matching the historical inversion-to-recession lead time.



What is the un-inversion (dis-inversion) signal?

Research (particularly from the New York Fed) shows that the recession signal comes not from the inversion itself but from the yield curve re-steepening (un-inverting) after a prolonged inversion. The logic: un-inversion often happens because the Fed has begun cutting short-term rates in response to actual economic weakness already underway. Historical data: recessions have often started as the curve was normalizing from inverted, not during the inversion peak. This means the September 2024 Fed rate cut and subsequent yield curve un-inversion could be consistent with recessionary forces developing in the economy, even without a confirmed recession yet.







## Cite This Page



If you reference this table in your own work, use the following citation format and add the date you accessed it:



> Swoopr Editorial Team. (2026). *Yield Curve Inversion History and Recession Timing*. Swoopr Investment. [https://www.getswoopr.com/tables/bonds/yield-curve-inversion-history/](https://www.getswoopr.com/tables/bonds/yield-curve-inversion-history/)



Check the figures against the primary sources listed under References before you rely on or republish them; the series they come from are revised.







## References



- [St. Louis Fed FRED: 10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury Spread](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y)







[Swoopr Editorial Team](https://www.getswoopr.com/authors/swoopr-editorial-team/) produces independent investment education and research content.



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