# Swoopr Investment: Scenario Analysis
# Scoped content manifest for LLM agents and web crawlers.
# Generated: 2026-10-18
# 935 pages in this section.
# Root index: https://www.getswoopr.com/llms.txt

## Research Workbench

- [Scenario Analysis: What Happens When](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis.md)): Explore investor scenarios answering what happens to bonds, stocks, gold and portfolios when interest rates rise, recessions hit.
- [Bond & Fixed Income Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income.md)): What happens to bond prices, yields, and fixed income portfolios in 30 scenarios covering rate changes, credit events, Fed policy shifts, and yield curve moves.
- [Bond ETFs When a Bond Is Downgraded?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-a-bond-is-downgraded/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-a-bond-is-downgraded.md)): A bond ETF is usually little affected when one of its many holdings is downgraded, because the loss is spread across the portfolio.
- [Bond ETFs When a Bond Is Upgraded?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-a-bond-is-upgraded/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-a-bond-is-upgraded.md)): A bond ETF usually gains only slightly when one of its holdings is upgraded, because the improvement is spread across a diversified portfolio.
- [Bond ETFs When Bond Duration Is High?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-bond-duration-is-high/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-bond-duration-is-high.md)): A bond ETF with high duration is more sensitive to interest rates: it rises more when rates fall and falls more when rates rise.
- [Bond ETFs When Bond Duration Is Low?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-bond-duration-is-low/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-bond-duration-is-low.md)): A bond ETF with low duration is less sensitive to interest rates: its price moves less when rates change, and its income adjusts to new rates more quickly.
- [Bond ETFs When Credit Spreads Tighten?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-credit-spreads-tighten/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-credit-spreads-tighten.md)): Bond ETFs that hold corporate bonds usually rise when credit spreads tighten, because the compensation investors demand for credit risk falls.
- [Bond ETFs When Credit Spreads Widen?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-credit-spreads-widen/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-credit-spreads-widen.md)): Bond ETFs that hold corporate bonds usually fall when credit spreads widen, because investors demand more yield to hold credit risk.
- [Bond Ladders When a Callable Bond Is Called?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-bond-ladders-when-a-callable-bond-is-called/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-bond-ladders-when-a-callable-bond-is-called.md)): A bond ladder loses the higher coupon of a bond that is called early, because the investor receives principal back before maturity and has to reinvest.
- [Callable Bonds When a Callable Bond Is Called?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-callable-bonds-when-a-callable-bond-is-called/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-callable-bonds-when-a-callable-bond-is-called.md)): A callable bond is redeemed early when it is called, so the holder receives the call price and loses future coupons, and the holder usually has to reinvest.
- [Corporate Bonds When a Bond Is Downgraded?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-a-bond-is-downgraded/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-a-bond-is-downgraded.md)): A corporate bond usually falls in price when its credit rating is downgraded, and falls most when the downgrade moves it from investment grade to high yield.
- [Corporate Bonds When a Bond Is Upgraded?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-a-bond-is-upgraded/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-a-bond-is-upgraded.md)): A corporate bond usually rises in price when its credit rating is upgraded, and rises most when it moves from high yield to investment grade.
- [Corporate Bonds When a Bond Issuer Defaults?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-a-bond-issuer-defaults/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-a-bond-issuer-defaults.md)): A corporate bond usually falls to a fraction of its face value when its issuer defaults, and holders then wait for a restructuring or liquidation.
- [Corporate Bonds When Bond Duration Is High?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-bond-duration-is-high/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-bond-duration-is-high.md)): A corporate bond with high duration is more sensitive to interest rate changes: its price rises more when rates fall and falls more when they rise.
- [Corporate Bonds When Bond Duration Is Low?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-bond-duration-is-low/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-bond-duration-is-low.md)): A corporate bond with low duration is less sensitive to interest rate changes, so its price moves less, and its main risk is credit quality, not rates.
- [Corporate Bonds When Credit Spreads Tighten?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-credit-spreads-tighten/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-credit-spreads-tighten.md)): Corporate bond prices usually rise when credit spreads tighten, because investors accept less extra yield for credit risk, and lower-rated bonds gain most.
- [Corporate Bonds When Credit Spreads Widen?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-credit-spreads-widen/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-credit-spreads-widen.md)): Corporate bond prices usually fall when credit spreads widen, because investors demand more yield for credit risk, and lower-rated bonds fall most.
- [High-Yield Bonds When a Bond Is Downgraded?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-a-bond-is-downgraded/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-a-bond-is-downgraded.md)): A high-yield bond usually falls when it is downgraded further, and falls most when the downgrade signals a likely default or restructuring.
- [High-Yield Bonds When a Bond Is Upgraded?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-a-bond-is-upgraded/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-a-bond-is-upgraded.md)): A high-yield bond usually rises when it is upgraded, and rises most when it becomes investment grade, because the pool of buyers expands and required yields.
- [High-Yield Bonds When a Bond Issuer Defaults?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-a-bond-issuer-defaults/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-a-bond-issuer-defaults.md)): A high-yield bond usually falls to a small fraction of its face value when its issuer defaults, with recovery depending on seniority.
- [High-Yield Bonds When Credit Spreads Tighten?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-credit-spreads-tighten/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-credit-spreads-tighten.md)): High-yield bond prices usually rise when credit spreads tighten, because investors accept less compensation for default risk.
- [High-Yield Bonds When Credit Spreads Widen?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-credit-spreads-widen/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-credit-spreads-widen.md)): High-yield bond prices usually fall when credit spreads widen, and they fall more than investment-grade bonds because default risk is higher and investors flee.
- [Income Portfolios When a Callable Bond Is Called?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-income-portfolios-when-a-callable-bond-is-called/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-income-portfolios-when-a-callable-bond-is-called.md)): An income portfolio loses a stream of above-market coupons when a callable bond is called, because the investor must reinvest the proceeds at current rates.
- [Investment-Grade Bonds When Credit Spreads Tighten?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-investment-grade-bonds-when-credit-spreads-tighten/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-investment-grade-bonds-when-credit-spreads-tighten.md)): Investment-grade bond prices usually rise when credit spreads tighten, but by less than high-yield bonds, because their spreads are smaller and more.
- [Investment-Grade Bonds When Credit Spreads Widen?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-investment-grade-bonds-when-credit-spreads-widen/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-investment-grade-bonds-when-credit-spreads-widen.md)): Investment-grade bond prices usually fall when credit spreads widen, but by less than high-yield bonds, and the decline is often offset if Treasury yields fall.
- [Municipal Bonds When a Bond Is Downgraded?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-municipal-bonds-when-a-bond-is-downgraded/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-municipal-bonds-when-a-bond-is-downgraded.md)): A municipal bond usually falls in price when it is downgraded, and the effect is larger for revenue bonds and smaller issuers.
- [Municipal Bonds When a Bond Is Upgraded?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-municipal-bonds-when-a-bond-is-upgraded/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-municipal-bonds-when-a-bond-is-upgraded.md)): A municipal bond usually rises in price when it is upgraded, because the required yield falls, though gains can be limited by thin trading and high demand.
- [Municipal Bonds When a Bond Issuer Defaults?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-municipal-bonds-when-a-bond-issuer-defaults/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-municipal-bonds-when-a-bond-issuer-defaults.md)): A municipal bond usually falls sharply when its issuer defaults, though recovery has historically been higher than for corporate bonds.
- [Retirement Bond Portfolios When Bond Duration Is High?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-retirement-bond-portfolios-when-bond-duration-is-high/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-retirement-bond-portfolios-when-bond-duration-is-high.md)): A retirement bond portfolio with high duration is more sensitive to interest rates, so its value falls more when rates rise.
- [Retirement Bond Portfolios When Bond Duration Is Low?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-retirement-bond-portfolios-when-bond-duration-is-low/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-retirement-bond-portfolios-when-bond-duration-is-low.md)): A retirement bond portfolio with low duration is less sensitive to interest rates, so its value is more stable, but it usually earns lower yields over time.
- [Treasury Bonds When Bond Duration Is High?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-when-bond-duration-is-high/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-when-bond-duration-is-high.md)): A Treasury bond with high duration is highly sensitive to interest rates: it rises sharply when yields fall and falls sharply when yields rise.
- [Treasury Bonds When Bond Duration Is Low?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-when-bond-duration-is-low/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/bonds-and-fixed-income/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-when-bond-duration-is-low.md)): A Treasury bond with low duration is much less sensitive to interest rates, so its price is stable and its income adjusts quickly.
- [Commodity Market Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios.md)): What happens to oil, gold, agricultural commodities, and commodity-linked equities in 30 scenarios covering supply shocks, demand changes, and dollar moves.
- [Agricultural Commodities During a Major Drought?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-agricultural-commodities-during-a-major-drought/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-agricultural-commodities-during-a-major-drought.md)): Agricultural commodity prices usually rise during a major drought, because crop yields fall and supply shrinks, though the size of the move depends on stocks.
- [Agricultural Commodities When Export Restrictions Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-agricultural-commodities-when-export-restrictions-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-agricultural-commodities-when-export-restrictions-rise.md)): Global agricultural commodity prices usually rise when export restrictions increase, because exporters withhold supply from world markets.
- [Agricultural Commodities When Fertilizer Costs Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-agricultural-commodities-when-fertilizer-costs-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-agricultural-commodities-when-fertilizer-costs-rise.md)): Agricultural commodity prices tend to rise after fertilizer costs rise, because farmers face higher costs and may use less fertilizer or plant different crops.
- [Copper When China Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-copper-when-china-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-copper-when-china-growth-slows.md)): Copper prices usually fall when China's growth slows, because China uses roughly half of the world's copper and construction and manufacturing drive most.
- [Copper When Global Manufacturing Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-copper-when-global-manufacturing-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-copper-when-global-manufacturing-accelerates.md)): Copper prices usually rise when global manufacturing accelerates, because factories, construction and electrical equipment need more copper.
- [Copper When Mine Supply Is Disrupted?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-copper-when-mine-supply-is-disrupted/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-copper-when-mine-supply-is-disrupted.md)): Copper prices usually rise when mine supply is disrupted, because production is concentrated in a few countries and a strike.
- [Gold During a Market Crisis?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-during-a-market-crisis/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-during-a-market-crisis.md)): Gold usually rises during a market crisis as investors seek safety, though in the sharpest liquidity squeezes it has fallen at first because investors sell.
- [Gold When Inflation Expectations Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-when-inflation-expectations-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-when-inflation-expectations-rise.md)): Gold has tended to rise when inflation expectations rise, but only if real interest rates do not rise at the same time.
- [Gold When Real Yields Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-when-real-yields-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-when-real-yields-fall.md)): Gold usually rises when real yields fall, because the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset drops and the relative appeal of gold increases.
- [Gold When Real Yields Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-when-real-yields-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-when-real-yields-rise.md)): Gold usually falls when real yields rise, because investors can earn more on inflation-protected bonds and the opportunity cost of holding gold increases.
- [Gold When the U.S. Dollar Strengthens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens.md)): Since 1971, gold (the World Bank monthly average price in dollars) changed by a median -7.6% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 8% in the trade-weighted.
- [Gold When the U.S. Dollar Weakens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens.md)): Since 1971, gold (the World Bank monthly average price in dollars) changed by a median +6.9% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 8% in the trade-weighted.
- [Lithium When EV Demand Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-lithium-when-ev-demand-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-lithium-when-ev-demand-slows.md)): Lithium prices usually fall when electric vehicle demand slows, because vehicle batteries are the largest source of demand and supply expansion planned.
- [Lithium When New Mine Supply Surges?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-lithium-when-new-mine-supply-surges/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-lithium-when-new-mine-supply-surges.md)): Lithium prices usually fall when new mine supply surges, because the market is small and sensitive to additions, and low-cost producers can keep expanding even.
- [Natural Gas During a Mild Winter?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-natural-gas-during-a-mild-winter/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-natural-gas-during-a-mild-winter.md)): Natural gas prices usually fall during a mild winter, because heating demand is lower than expected and storage ends the season with more gas than usual.
- [Natural Gas During an Extreme Winter?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-natural-gas-during-an-extreme-winter/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-natural-gas-during-an-extreme-winter.md)): Natural gas prices usually spike during an extreme winter, because heating demand surges and cold can also freeze wells and pipelines.
- [Natural Gas When LNG Export Capacity Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-natural-gas-when-lng-export-capacity-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-natural-gas-when-lng-export-capacity-rises.md)): U.S. natural gas prices tend to firm when liquefied natural gas export capacity rises, because exports add a source of demand that is linked to global markets.
- [What Happens to Oil During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-during-a-recession.md)): Since 1982, crude oil (the West Texas Intermediate monthly average price) changed by a median +2.3% in the 12 months after the start of a recession.
- [Oil During a Shipping Disruption?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-during-a-shipping-disruption/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-during-a-shipping-disruption.md)): Oil prices usually rise during a major shipping disruption, because a risk premium is added and rerouting lengthens voyages and raises freight costs.
- [Oil When Global Demand Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-when-global-demand-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-when-global-demand-falls.md)): Oil prices usually fall when global demand falls, because supply is slow to adjust and inventories build, and a drop in demand of a few percent can move prices.
- [Oil When Global Demand Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-when-global-demand-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-when-global-demand-rises.md)): Oil prices usually rise when global demand rises faster than supply, because producers have limited spare capacity and prices must rise to balance the market.
- [Oil When OPEC Cuts Production?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-when-opec-cuts-production/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-when-opec-cuts-production.md)): Oil prices usually rise when OPEC cuts production, because supply falls against steady demand.
- [Oil When OPEC Raises Production?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-when-opec-raises-production/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-when-opec-raises-production.md)): Oil prices usually fall when OPEC raises production, because supply increases against demand, particularly if the increase is larger than markets expected.
- [Oil When the U.S. Dollar Strengthens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens.md)): Since 1982, crude oil (the West Texas Intermediate monthly average price) changed by a median -24.0% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 8%.
- [Oil When the U.S. Dollar Weakens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens.md)): Since 1982, crude oil (the West Texas Intermediate monthly average price) changed by a median -6.5% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 8%.
- [Silver When Gold Rallies?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-silver-when-gold-rallies/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-silver-when-gold-rallies.md)): Silver usually rises when gold rallies, and often by more, because it trades as both a precious metal and an industrial metal and is a smaller.
- [Silver When Industrial Demand Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-silver-when-industrial-demand-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-silver-when-industrial-demand-rises.md)): Silver prices usually rise when industrial demand rises, because roughly half of silver demand comes from electronics, solar panels and other industrial uses.
- [Silver When the Dollar Strengthens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-silver-when-the-dollar-strengthens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-silver-when-the-dollar-strengthens.md)): Silver usually falls when the U.S. dollar strengthens, because it is priced in dollars and becomes more expensive for buyers in other currencies.
- [Uranium When Mine Supply Tightens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-uranium-when-mine-supply-tightens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-uranium-when-mine-supply-tightens.md)): Uranium prices usually rise when mine supply tightens, because production is concentrated in a few countries and utilities need long-term contracts to fuel.
- [Uranium When Nuclear Reactor Demand Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-uranium-when-nuclear-reactor-demand-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/commodity-scenarios/what-happens-to-uranium-when-nuclear-reactor-demand-rises.md)): Uranium prices usually rise when nuclear reactor demand rises, because new reactors and extended lives increase long-term fuel needs.
- [Company-Level Event Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events.md)): What happens to a stock when a company misses earnings, announces a merger, issues secondary shares, faces a short-seller report, or undergoes a CEO change.
- [A Stock After a Reverse Stock Split?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-after-a-reverse-stock-split/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-after-a-reverse-stock-split.md)): A reverse stock split does not change what a company is worth, and the shares of companies that do one have more often lagged than led afterward.
- [A Stock After a Stock Split?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-after-a-stock-split/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-after-a-stock-split.md)): A stock split divides existing shares into more shares at a lower price and leaves the company's value unchanged, so any move after the announcement reflects.
- [A Stock When a CEO Resigns?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-ceo-resigns/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-ceo-resigns.md)): A stock usually reacts to a CEO resignation by moving lower or staying flat, and the move is larger when the departure is sudden or unexplained and smaller.
- [A Stock When a Company Announces a Buyback?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-announces-a-buyback/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-announces-a-buyback.md)): A stock often rises modestly on the announcement of a buyback, because the company is signaling that it sees its own shares as good value.
- [A Stock When a Company Announces an Acquisition?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-announces-an-acquisition/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-announces-an-acquisition.md)): The stock of the company being bought usually jumps toward the offer price, while the stock of the buyer more often falls or is flat on the announcement.
- [A Stock When a Company Announces Layoffs?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-announces-layoffs/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-announces-layoffs.md)): A stock's reaction to layoffs varies: it can rise when the cuts are seen as restoring margins at a company under pressure and fall when they signal weak demand.
- [A Stock When a Company Becomes an Acquisition Target?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-becomes-an-acquisition-target/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-becomes-an-acquisition-target.md)): A stock usually rises sharply when a company becomes an acquisition target, because buyers normally pay a premium over the recent price.
- [A Stock When a Company Cuts Its Dividend?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-cuts-its-dividend/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-cuts-its-dividend.md)): A stock usually falls when a company cuts its dividend, because a cut signals that management expects weaker cash flow.
- [A Stock When a Company Files for Bankruptcy?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-files-for-bankruptcy/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-files-for-bankruptcy.md)): A stock usually collapses when a company files for bankruptcy, and in a Chapter 11 reorganization common shareholders are paid only after creditors.
- [A Stock When a Company Issues New Shares?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-issues-new-shares/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-issues-new-shares.md)): A stock usually falls when a company issues new shares, because existing holders own a smaller share of the company and the offering is often priced.
- [A Stock When a Company Raises Its Dividend?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-raises-its-dividend/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-raises-its-dividend.md)): A stock usually rises modestly when a company raises its dividend, because managers raise payouts only when they expect cash flow to sustain them.
- [A Stock When a Company Receives an SEC Subpoena?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-receives-an-sec-subpoena/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-receives-an-sec-subpoena.md)): A stock usually falls when a company discloses a subpoena from the SEC, because investors cannot yet judge the penalties.
- [A Stock When a Company Restates Earnings?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-restates-earnings/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-restates-earnings.md)): A stock usually falls when a company restates earnings, because the restatement shows that earlier reported results were wrong.
- [A Stock When a Company Spins Off a Business?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-spins-off-a-business/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-spins-off-a-business.md)): A stock's reaction to a spin-off is mixed: holders receive shares of the new company and the combined value is unchanged at the start.
- [A Stock When a Company Suspends Its Dividend?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-suspends-its-dividend/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-company-suspends-its-dividend.md)): A stock usually falls when a company suspends its dividend, because a suspension is a stronger signal of financial stress than a cut and often comes.
- [A Stock When a Credit Rating Is Downgraded?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-credit-rating-is-downgraded/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-credit-rating-is-downgraded.md)): A stock usually falls when a company's credit rating is downgraded, because the company will borrow at higher cost and the downgrade often reflects weaker cash.
- [A Stock When a Stock Enters the S&P 500?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-stock-enters-the-s-and-p-500/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-stock-enters-the-s-and-p-500.md)): A stock has usually risen when it is announced as an addition to the S&P 500, because index funds must buy it, though the gain has faded in recent years.
- [A Stock When a Stock Leaves a Major Index?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-stock-leaves-a-major-index/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-a-stock-leaves-a-major-index.md)): A stock usually falls when it is removed from a major index, because funds that track the index must sell it, though the decline is often temporary if.
- [A Stock When an Activist Investor Takes a Stake?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-an-activist-investor-takes-a-stake/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-an-activist-investor-takes-a-stake.md)): A stock usually rises when an activist investor discloses a stake, because the investor is pushing for changes such as asset sales, cost cuts.
- [A Stock When an Auditor Resigns?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-an-auditor-resigns/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-an-auditor-resigns.md)): A stock usually falls when its auditor resigns, because the departure can signal a disagreement over accounting or doubts about the company's controls.
- [A Stock When an IPO Lockup Expires?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-an-ipo-lockup-expires/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-an-ipo-lockup-expires.md)): A stock has often drifted lower around the expiry of an IPO lockup, because insiders and early investors become free to sell shares, which increases supply.
- [A Stock When Debt Rises Sharply?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-debt-rises-sharply/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-debt-rises-sharply.md)): A stock's reaction to a sharp rise in debt depends on what the money funds: it can fall when borrowing covers losses or buybacks at high prices.
- [A Stock When Earnings Beat Expectations?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-earnings-beat-expectations/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-earnings-beat-expectations.md)): A stock usually rises when earnings beat expectations, but the move depends on how large the beat is, what guidance says about future quarters and whether.
- [A Stock When Earnings Miss Expectations?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-earnings-miss-expectations/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-earnings-miss-expectations.md)): A stock usually falls when earnings miss expectations, and the drop is larger when the miss comes with lower guidance or a weaker margin than when a miss.
- [A Stock When Free Cash Flow Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-free-cash-flow-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-free-cash-flow-falls.md)): A stock usually underperforms when free cash flow falls, because free cash flow funds dividends, buybacks and debt repayment.
- [A Stock When Gross Margin Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-gross-margin-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-gross-margin-falls.md)): A stock usually falls when gross margin falls, because a lower margin means each dollar of sales keeps less profit, which points to pricing pressure.
- [A Stock When Guidance Is Cut?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-guidance-is-cut/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-guidance-is-cut.md)): A stock usually falls when management cuts its guidance, because lower forecasts reduce expected earnings, and the move is often larger than a similar miss.
- [A Stock When Guidance Is Raised?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-guidance-is-raised/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-guidance-is-raised.md)): A stock usually rises when management raises its guidance, because higher forecasts increase expected earnings.
- [A Stock When Insider Buying Increases?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-insider-buying-increases/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-insider-buying-increases.md)): A stock has tended to do modestly better after clusters of insider purchases, because executives buy with their own money when they think shares are cheap.
- [A Stock When Insider Selling Increases?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-insider-selling-increases/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-insider-selling-increases.md)): A stock does not reliably fall when insider selling increases, because insiders sell for many reasons such as taxes, diversification and scheduled plans.
- [A Stock When Revenue Rises but Profit Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-revenue-rises-but-profit-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-revenue-rises-but-profit-falls.md)): A stock's reaction when revenue rises but profit falls depends on why: it is often negative when margins are being squeezed and sometimes positive when.
- [A Stock When Short Interest Rises Sharply?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-short-interest-rises-sharply/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/company-level-events/what-happens-to-a-stock-when-short-interest-rises-sharply.md)): A stock tends to underperform when short interest rises sharply, because short sellers are often informed about weak fundamentals.
- [Crypto Market Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios.md)): What happens to Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, and crypto portfolios in more than 58 scenarios covering exchange failures, regulatory events, halving cycles.
- [Bitcoin After a Bitcoin Halving?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-after-a-bitcoin-halving/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-after-a-bitcoin-halving.md)): Bitcoin's price rose in the year or so after each of its earlier halvings, but there have been only a few of them and each coincided with a broader market.
- [Bitcoin During a Liquidity Crisis?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-a-liquidity-crisis/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-a-liquidity-crisis.md)): Bitcoin has usually fallen sharply in a liquidity crisis, because investors sell what they can to raise cash and leveraged positions are forced to close.
- [Bitcoin Miners When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-miners-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-miners-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Bitcoin miners' stocks usually rise when interest rates fall, because lower rates tend to lift bitcoin and risk assets and reduce the cost of the debt.
- [Bitcoin Miners When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-miners-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-miners-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Bitcoin miners' stocks usually fall when interest rates rise, because higher rates tend to weigh on bitcoin and risk assets and raise financing costs.
- [Bitcoin Miners When Market Liquidity Contracts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-miners-when-market-liquidity-contracts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-miners-when-market-liquidity-contracts.md)): Bitcoin miners' stocks usually fall when market liquidity contracts, because both bitcoin and the miners' ability to raise capital depend on easy financial.
- [Bitcoin Miners When Market Liquidity Expands?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-miners-when-market-liquidity-expands/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-miners-when-market-liquidity-expands.md)): Bitcoin miners' stocks usually rise when market liquidity expands, because bitcoin tends to benefit from easier conditions and miners can raise capital.
- [Bitcoin Miners When Risk Appetite Collapses?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-miners-when-risk-appetite-collapses/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-miners-when-risk-appetite-collapses.md)): Bitcoin miners' stocks usually fall sharply when risk appetite collapses, because bitcoin sells off with other speculative assets and miners carry both.
- [Bitcoin Miners When the U.S. Dollar Strengthens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-miners-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-miners-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens.md)): Bitcoin miners' stocks have tended to fall when the U.S. dollar strengthens, because a stronger dollar has often coincided with tighter global liquidity.
- [Bitcoin Miners When the U.S. Dollar Weakens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-miners-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-miners-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens.md)): Bitcoin miners' stocks have tended to rise when the U.S. dollar weakens, because a weaker dollar has often coincided with easier global liquidity and stronger.
- [Bitcoin When a Major Crypto Exchange Fails?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-a-major-crypto-exchange-fails/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-a-major-crypto-exchange-fails.md)): Bitcoin usually falls sharply when a major crypto exchange fails, because customer funds are frozen, confidence drops and forced selling spreads through.
- [Bitcoin When Bitcoin ETF Inflows Accelerate?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-bitcoin-etf-inflows-accelerate/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-bitcoin-etf-inflows-accelerate.md)): Bitcoin's price has tended to rise when inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs accelerate, because the funds must buy bitcoin to back new shares, adding steady demand.
- [Bitcoin When Bitcoin ETF Outflows Accelerate?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-bitcoin-etf-outflows-accelerate/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-bitcoin-etf-outflows-accelerate.md)): Bitcoin's price has tended to weaken when outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs accelerate, because the funds sell bitcoin to meet redemptions, which adds supply.
- [Bitcoin When Bitcoin Mining Economics Deteriorate?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-bitcoin-mining-economics-deteriorate/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-bitcoin-mining-economics-deteriorate.md)): Bitcoin can come under selling pressure when mining economics deteriorate, because unprofitable miners may sell their holdings or shut down.
- [Bitcoin When Crypto Regulation Becomes Clearer?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-crypto-regulation-becomes-clearer/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-crypto-regulation-becomes-clearer.md)): Bitcoin has tended to benefit when crypto regulation becomes clearer, because clearer rules make it easier for banks, funds and companies to hold and trade it.
- [Bitcoin When Crypto Regulation Tightens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-crypto-regulation-tightens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-crypto-regulation-tightens.md)): Bitcoin has often fallen when crypto regulation tightens, because new restrictions or enforcement reduce access, trading and exchange activity.
- [Bitcoin When Market Liquidity Contracts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-market-liquidity-contracts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-market-liquidity-contracts.md)): Bitcoin has tended to fall when market liquidity contracts, because it trades as a high-risk asset that depends on easy financial conditions and available.
- [Bitcoin When Market Liquidity Expands?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-market-liquidity-expands/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-market-liquidity-expands.md)): Bitcoin has tended to rise when market liquidity expands, because easier financial conditions and cheaper leverage support demand for speculative assets.
- [Bitcoin When Risk Appetite Collapses?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-risk-appetite-collapses/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-risk-appetite-collapses.md)): Bitcoin has usually fallen sharply when risk appetite collapses, because it trades like a high-risk asset and leveraged positions are forced to close.
- [Bitcoin When the U.S. Dollar Strengthens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens.md)): Since 2010, bitcoin (the month-end price in dollars) changed by a median -0.3% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 8% in the trade-weighted dollar within.
- [Bitcoin When the U.S. Dollar Weakens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens.md)): Since 2010, bitcoin (the month-end price in dollars) changed by a median -40.6% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 8% in the trade-weighted dollar.
- [Crypto Market After a Bitcoin Halving?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-after-a-bitcoin-halving/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-after-a-bitcoin-halving.md)): The broader crypto market has tended to follow bitcoin higher in the year after a halving, but with only a few halvings and many other influences.
- [Crypto Market When a Major Crypto Exchange Fails?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-when-a-major-crypto-exchange-fails/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-when-a-major-crypto-exchange-fails.md)): The crypto market usually falls sharply when a major exchange fails, because customer funds are frozen, lenders and funds linked to the exchange suffer losses.
- [Crypto Market When a Major Stablecoin Depegs?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-when-a-major-stablecoin-depegs/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-when-a-major-stablecoin-depegs.md)): The crypto market usually falls when a major stablecoin loses its peg, because stablecoins are the main trading and collateral currency.
- [Crypto Market When Bitcoin ETF Inflows Accelerate?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-when-bitcoin-etf-inflows-accelerate/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-when-bitcoin-etf-inflows-accelerate.md)): The crypto market has tended to benefit when bitcoin ETF inflows accelerate, because the inflows lift bitcoin and bring attention and capital to the wider.
- [Crypto Market When Bitcoin ETF Outflows Accelerate?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-when-bitcoin-etf-outflows-accelerate/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-when-bitcoin-etf-outflows-accelerate.md)): The crypto market has tended to weaken when bitcoin ETF outflows accelerate, because outflows add selling pressure on bitcoin and signal weaker sentiment.
- [Crypto Market When Bitcoin Mining Economics Deteriorate?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-when-bitcoin-mining-economics-deteriorate/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-when-bitcoin-mining-economics-deteriorate.md)): The crypto market is affected modestly when bitcoin mining economics deteriorate, mainly through selling by miners and a signal of weak prices.
- [Crypto Market When Crypto Regulation Becomes Clearer?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-when-crypto-regulation-becomes-clearer/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-when-crypto-regulation-becomes-clearer.md)): The crypto market has tended to benefit when regulation becomes clearer, because clear rules allow regulated firms to participate and reduce the legal risk.
- [Crypto Market When Crypto Regulation Tightens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-when-crypto-regulation-tightens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-when-crypto-regulation-tightens.md)): The crypto market has tended to fall when regulation tightens, because restrictions on exchanges, leverage and token sales reduce access and demand.
- [Crypto Market When Ethereum Network Fees Spike?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-when-ethereum-network-fees-spike/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-market-when-ethereum-network-fees-spike.md)): The crypto market is little changed on average when Ethereum network fees spike, but the spike signals heavy activity that often accompanies speculative booms.
- [Crypto Stocks When a Major Crypto Exchange Fails?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-a-major-crypto-exchange-fails/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-a-major-crypto-exchange-fails.md)): Crypto stocks usually fall sharply when a major crypto exchange fails, because the companies depend on trading activity and investor confidence.
- [Crypto Stocks When Crypto Regulation Becomes Clearer?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-crypto-regulation-becomes-clearer/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-crypto-regulation-becomes-clearer.md)): Crypto stocks usually rise when regulation becomes clearer, because listed exchanges, brokers and miners gain a legal framework that supports business.
- [Crypto Stocks When Crypto Regulation Tightens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-crypto-regulation-tightens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-crypto-regulation-tightens.md)): Crypto stocks usually fall when regulation tightens, because stricter rules raise costs and can restrict products, with the biggest effect on companies.
- [Crypto Stocks When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Crypto stocks usually rise when interest rates fall, because lower rates tend to support risk assets and speculative demand and reduce funding costs.
- [Crypto Stocks When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Crypto stocks usually fall when interest rates rise, because higher rates weigh on risk assets and speculative trading and raise funding costs.
- [Crypto Stocks When Market Liquidity Contracts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-market-liquidity-contracts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-market-liquidity-contracts.md)): Crypto stocks usually fall when market liquidity contracts, because trading volumes and crypto prices fall and the companies find it harder to raise capital.
- [Crypto Stocks When Market Liquidity Expands?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-market-liquidity-expands/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-market-liquidity-expands.md)): Crypto stocks usually rise when market liquidity expands, because easier conditions lift crypto prices and trading activity and make capital cheaper.
- [Crypto Stocks When Risk Appetite Collapses?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-risk-appetite-collapses/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-risk-appetite-collapses.md)): Crypto stocks usually fall sharply when risk appetite collapses, because trading volumes and token prices drop at the same time and the companies often carry.
- [Crypto Stocks When the U.S. Dollar Strengthens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens.md)): Crypto stocks have tended to fall when the U.S. dollar strengthens, because a stronger dollar often goes with tighter global liquidity and weaker risk assets.
- [Crypto Stocks When the U.S. Dollar Weakens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-crypto-stocks-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens.md)): Crypto stocks have tended to rise when the U.S. dollar weakens, because a weaker dollar has often coincided with easier global liquidity and stronger risk.
- [Ethereum When a Major Crypto Exchange Fails?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-a-major-crypto-exchange-fails/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-a-major-crypto-exchange-fails.md)): Ether usually falls sharply when a major crypto exchange fails, because it is a high-risk asset that is held and traded on exchanges.
- [Ethereum When Crypto Regulation Becomes Clearer?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-crypto-regulation-becomes-clearer/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-crypto-regulation-becomes-clearer.md)): Ether has tended to benefit when crypto regulation becomes clearer, but Ether is more exposed than bitcoin to questions about whether it is a security.
- [Ethereum When Crypto Regulation Tightens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-crypto-regulation-tightens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-crypto-regulation-tightens.md)): Ether has tended to fall when crypto regulation tightens, because it is exposed to rules on staking, exchanges and decentralized finance and to questions about.
- [Ethereum When Ethereum Network Fees Spike?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-ethereum-network-fees-spike/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-ethereum-network-fees-spike.md)): Ether's price is not reliably moved by a fee spike, but the spike signals heavy demand for block space, often during speculative booms.
- [Ethereum When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Since 2015, ether (the month-end price in dollars) changed by a median +1335.8% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points in the 10-year yield.
- [Ethereum When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Since 2015, ether (the month-end price in dollars) changed by a median +85.7% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points in the 10-year yield within.
- [Ethereum When Market Liquidity Contracts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-market-liquidity-contracts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-market-liquidity-contracts.md)): Ether has tended to fall when market liquidity contracts, and often by more than bitcoin, because it is a high-risk asset sensitive to leverage and speculative.
- [Ethereum When Market Liquidity Expands?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-market-liquidity-expands/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-market-liquidity-expands.md)): Ether has tended to rise when market liquidity expands, and often by more than bitcoin, because it is a higher-beta asset that benefits from cheaper leverage.
- [Ethereum When Risk Appetite Collapses?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-risk-appetite-collapses/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-risk-appetite-collapses.md)): Ether has usually fallen sharply when risk appetite collapses, often more than bitcoin, because it is a high-risk asset held by leveraged traders.
- [Ethereum When the U.S. Dollar Strengthens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens.md)): Since 2015, ether (the month-end price in dollars) changed by a median -3.8% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 8% in the trade-weighted dollar within.
- [Ethereum When the U.S. Dollar Weakens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-ethereum-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens.md)): Since 2015, ether (the month-end price in dollars) changed by a median -59.1% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 8% in the trade-weighted dollar within.
- [Spot Bitcoin ETFs When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-spot-bitcoin-etfs-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-spot-bitcoin-etfs-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Spot bitcoin ETFs usually rise in value when interest rates fall if bitcoin rises with other risk assets, because the funds simply track the bitcoin price.
- [Spot Bitcoin ETFs When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-spot-bitcoin-etfs-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-spot-bitcoin-etfs-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Spot bitcoin ETFs usually fall in value when interest rates rise if bitcoin weakens with other risk assets, because the funds track the bitcoin price and offer.
- [Spot Bitcoin ETFs When Market Liquidity Contracts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-spot-bitcoin-etfs-when-market-liquidity-contracts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-spot-bitcoin-etfs-when-market-liquidity-contracts.md)): Spot bitcoin ETFs usually fall in value when market liquidity contracts, because the funds track bitcoin, which has fallen with other risk assets as leverage.
- [Spot Bitcoin ETFs When Market Liquidity Expands?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-spot-bitcoin-etfs-when-market-liquidity-expands/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-spot-bitcoin-etfs-when-market-liquidity-expands.md)): Spot bitcoin ETFs usually rise in value when market liquidity expands, because the funds track bitcoin, which has benefited from easier financial conditions.
- [Spot Bitcoin ETFs When Risk Appetite Collapses?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-spot-bitcoin-etfs-when-risk-appetite-collapses/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-spot-bitcoin-etfs-when-risk-appetite-collapses.md)): Spot bitcoin ETFs usually fall sharply when risk appetite collapses, because the funds track bitcoin, which has behaved as a high-risk asset in sell-offs.
- [Spot Bitcoin ETFs When the U.S. Dollar Strengthens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-spot-bitcoin-etfs-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-spot-bitcoin-etfs-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens.md)): Spot bitcoin ETFs have tended to fall when the U.S. dollar strengthens, because bitcoin has often moved opposite to the dollar and the funds track its price.
- [Spot Bitcoin ETFs When the U.S. Dollar Weakens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-spot-bitcoin-etfs-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-spot-bitcoin-etfs-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens.md)): Spot bitcoin ETFs have tended to rise when the U.S. dollar weakens, because bitcoin has often moved opposite to the dollar and the funds track its price.
- [Stablecoins When a Major Stablecoin Depegs?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-stablecoins-when-a-major-stablecoin-depegs/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/crypto-scenarios/what-happens-to-stablecoins-when-a-major-stablecoin-depegs.md)): Other stablecoins usually face redemption pressure when a major stablecoin loses its peg, and some briefly trade below a dollar.
- [Currency & FX Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios.md)): What happens to international portfolios, commodity prices, and multinational earnings in 14 currency and foreign exchange scenarios.
- [Emerging-Market Bonds When the U.S. Dollar Strengthens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-emerging-market-bonds-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-emerging-market-bonds-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens.md)): Emerging-market bonds usually fall when the U.S. dollar strengthens, because dollar-denominated debt becomes harder to service.
- [Emerging-Market Bonds When the U.S. Dollar Weakens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-emerging-market-bonds-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-emerging-market-bonds-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens.md)): Emerging-market bonds usually rise when the U.S. dollar weakens, because dollar debt becomes easier to service, capital flows toward higher-yielding markets.
- [Emerging-Market Stocks When the U.S. Dollar Strengthens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-emerging-market-stocks-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-emerging-market-stocks-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens.md)): Emerging-market stocks usually fall when the U.S. dollar strengthens, because capital leaves for U.S. assets, local currencies lose value and dollar-linked.
- [Emerging-Market Stocks When the U.S. Dollar Weakens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-emerging-market-stocks-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-emerging-market-stocks-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens.md)): Emerging-market stocks usually rise when the U.S. dollar weakens, because capital flows toward higher-growth markets, local currencies gain and dollar debt.
- [Foreign Revenue Translation When the U.S. Dollar Strengthens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-foreign-revenue-translation-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-foreign-revenue-translation-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens.md)): A stronger U.S. dollar lowers the dollar value of revenue and profit earned abroad when it is translated back into dollars.
- [Foreign Revenue Translation When the U.S. Dollar Weakens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-foreign-revenue-translation-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-foreign-revenue-translation-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens.md)): A weaker U.S. dollar raises the dollar value of revenue and profit earned abroad when it is translated back into dollars.
- [International Stocks When the U.S. Dollar Strengthens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-international-stocks-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-international-stocks-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens.md)): International stocks held by a U.S. investor usually return less when the dollar strengthens, because foreign currencies lose value against the dollar.
- [International Stocks When the U.S. Dollar Weakens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-international-stocks-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-international-stocks-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens.md)): International stocks held by a U.S. investor usually return more when the dollar weakens, because foreign currencies gain against the dollar.
- [U.S. Exporters When the U.S. Dollar Strengthens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-exporters-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-exporters-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens.md)): U.S. exporters usually lose when the dollar strengthens, because their goods become more expensive in foreign currencies and the dollar value of overseas.
- [U.S. Exporters When the U.S. Dollar Weakens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-exporters-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-exporters-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens.md)): U.S. exporters usually gain when the dollar weakens, because their goods become cheaper in foreign currencies and the dollar value of overseas revenue rises.
- [U.S. Importers When the U.S. Dollar Strengthens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-importers-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-importers-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens.md)): U.S. importers usually gain when the dollar strengthens, because foreign goods cost fewer dollars, which lowers input costs and supports margins or allows.
- [U.S. Importers When the U.S. Dollar Weakens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-importers-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-importers-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens.md)): U.S. importers usually lose when the dollar weakens, because foreign goods cost more dollars, which raises input costs and squeezes margins unless prices can.
- [U.S. Multinational Stocks When the U.S. Dollar Strengthens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-multinational-stocks-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-multinational-stocks-when-the-u-s-dollar-strengthens.md)): U.S. multinational stocks usually face earnings pressure when the dollar strengthens, because foreign sales convert into fewer dollars and products become.
- [U.S. Multinational Stocks When the U.S. Dollar Weakens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-multinational-stocks-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-fx-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-multinational-stocks-when-the-u-s-dollar-weakens.md)): U.S. multinational stocks usually see earnings support when the dollar weakens, because foreign sales convert into more dollars and products become cheaper.
- [Currency & Global Market Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-global-markets/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-global-markets.md)): How dollar strength, dollar weakness and global macro shifts typically affect international investments, commodities, emerging markets & multinational earnings.
- [When the Dollar Strengthens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-global-markets/what-happens-when-the-dollar-strengthens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-global-markets/what-happens-when-the-dollar-strengthens.md)): How a stronger US dollar typically affects emerging markets, commodities, multinational earnings, international investments and domestic importers & exporters.
- [What Happens When the Dollar Weakens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-global-markets/what-happens-when-the-dollar-weakens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/currency-and-global-markets/what-happens-when-the-dollar-weakens.md)): A weakening U.S. dollar typically lifts commodities, boosts multinational earnings, and benefits international investments.
- [Recession & Economic Cycle Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession.md)): Scenario guides covering recessions, bear markets, bull markets, and economic cycle effects on stocks, bonds, real estate and other assets.
- [What Happens in a Bear Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-in-a-bear-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-in-a-bear-market.md)): How bear markets typically unfold, how long they last, and what historically happens to different asset classes, sectors and investment strategies during.
- [What Happens in a Bull Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-in-a-bull-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-in-a-bull-market.md)): How bull markets typically develop, which sectors and strategies tend to lead, and what historically happens to asset valuations.
- [Bank Stocks During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-during-a-hard-landing.md)): Bank stocks usually fall during a hard landing, because a recession raises loan defaults, reduces loan demand and often brings lower interest rates.
- [Bank Stocks During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-during-a-recession.md)): Since 1926, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +21.6% in the 12 months after the start of a recession.
- [Bank Stocks During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-during-a-soft-landing.md)): Bank stocks usually rise modestly during a soft landing, because loan losses stay contained and growth continues, while a falling inflation path lets rates.
- [Bank Stocks During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): Since 1926, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +17.6% in the 12 months after the start of a recovery.
- [Bitcoin During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-a-hard-landing.md)): Bitcoin has usually fallen in the early part of a hard landing, because it trades as a high-risk asset sensitive to liquidity.
- [Bitcoin During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-a-recession.md)): Since 2010, bitcoin (the month-end price in dollars) changed by a median +428.5% in the 12 months after the start of a recession.
- [Bitcoin During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-a-soft-landing.md)): Bitcoin has tended to benefit during a soft landing, because stable growth, easing inflation and falling rates support appetite for risk assets.
- [Bitcoin During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): Since 2010, bitcoin (the month-end price in dollars) changed by a median +567.3% in the 12 months after the start of a recovery.
- [Bonds During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bonds-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-bonds-during-a-recession.md)): How recessions typically affect government bonds, corporate bonds, and high-yield bonds. Flight to safety, credit spreads, Fed rate cuts.
- [Commodities During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-commodities-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-commodities-during-a-hard-landing.md)): Commodity prices usually fall during a hard landing, because industrial and energy demand drop, though gold and some food items hold up better than metals.
- [Commodities During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-commodities-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-commodities-during-a-recession.md)): Commodity prices usually fall during a recession, because industrial and energy demand weaken, though gold often holds up and agricultural prices respond more.
- [Commodities During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-commodities-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-commodities-during-a-soft-landing.md)): Commodity prices are usually mixed during a soft landing, because steady growth supports demand while falling inflation and lower interest rates have mixed.
- [Commodities During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-commodities-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-commodities-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): Commodity prices usually rise during an economic recovery, because industrial production, construction and travel rebound while supply.
- [Commodities When GDP Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-commodities-when-gdp-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-commodities-when-gdp-growth-accelerates.md)): Commodity prices usually rise when GDP growth accelerates, because stronger activity increases demand for energy, metals and other materials.
- [Commodities When GDP Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-commodities-when-gdp-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-commodities-when-gdp-growth-slows.md)): Commodity prices usually fall when GDP growth slows, because weaker activity reduces demand for energy and industrial materials and inventories build.
- [Consumer Discretionary Stocks During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-consumer-discretionary-stocks-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-consumer-discretionary-stocks-during-a-hard-landing.md)): Consumer discretionary stocks usually fall sharply during a hard landing, because job losses and weaker confidence cut spending on non-essential items.
- [Consumer Discretionary Stocks During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-consumer-discretionary-stocks-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-consumer-discretionary-stocks-during-a-recession.md)): Consumer discretionary stocks usually fall during a recession, because spending on non-essential goods and services is cut first.
- [Consumer Discretionary Stocks During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-consumer-discretionary-stocks-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-consumer-discretionary-stocks-during-a-soft-landing.md)): Consumer discretionary stocks usually do well during a soft landing, because employment holds up, inflation eases and falling rates support spending.
- [Consumer Discretionary Stocks During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-consumer-discretionary-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-consumer-discretionary-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): Consumer discretionary stocks usually rise strongly during an economic recovery, often leading the market, because pent-up demand.
- [Consumer Staples Stocks During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-consumer-staples-stocks-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-consumer-staples-stocks-during-a-hard-landing.md)): Consumer staples stocks usually fall less than the market during a hard landing, because demand for food, household goods and basic products is stable.
- [Consumer Staples Stocks During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-consumer-staples-stocks-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-consumer-staples-stocks-during-a-recession.md)): Since 1926, U.S. consumer nondurables stocks (food, tobacco, apparel and similar), the closest long-history grouping to consumer staples returned a median.
- [Consumer Staples Stocks During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-consumer-staples-stocks-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-consumer-staples-stocks-during-a-soft-landing.md)): Consumer staples stocks usually lag the market during a soft landing, because investors prefer more cyclical sectors when growth holds.
- [Consumer Staples Stocks During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-consumer-staples-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-consumer-staples-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): Since 1926, U.S. consumer nondurables stocks (food, tobacco, apparel and similar), the closest long-history grouping to consumer staples returned a median.
- [Credit Spreads During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-credit-spreads-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-credit-spreads-during-a-hard-landing.md)): Credit spreads usually widen sharply during a hard landing, because default risk rises and investors demand more compensation.
- [Credit Spreads During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-credit-spreads-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-credit-spreads-during-a-recession.md)): Credit spreads usually widen during a recession, because default risk rises and investors demand more compensation, with the widening largest for lower-rated.
- [Credit Spreads During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-credit-spreads-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-credit-spreads-during-a-soft-landing.md)): Credit spreads usually stay tight or narrow during a soft landing, because default risk remains low and growth continues.
- [Credit Spreads During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-credit-spreads-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-credit-spreads-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): Credit spreads usually narrow during an economic recovery, often quickly, because default risk falls as earnings rebound and investors regain appetite for risk.
- [Cyclical Stocks During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-during-a-hard-landing.md)): Cyclical stocks usually fall sharply during a hard landing, because their earnings depend on economic activity and they have high fixed costs and debt.
- [Cyclical Stocks During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-during-a-recession.md)): Since 1926, U.S. cyclical stocks (an equal-weighted blend of five cyclical industry groups) returned a median +9.8% in the 12 months after the start.
- [Cyclical Stocks During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-during-a-soft-landing.md)): Cyclical stocks usually do well during a soft landing, because growth continues, inflation eases and falling rates support earnings and valuations.
- [Cyclical Stocks During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): Since 1926, U.S. cyclical stocks (an equal-weighted blend of five cyclical industry groups) returned a median +21.7% in the 12 months after the start.
- [Cyclical Stocks When GDP Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-gdp-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-gdp-growth-accelerates.md)): Cyclical stocks usually outperform when GDP growth accelerates, because faster growth lifts demand for goods, materials and travel and improves operating.
- [Cyclical Stocks When GDP Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-gdp-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-gdp-growth-slows.md)): Cyclical stocks usually underperform when GDP growth slows, because weaker demand reduces orders and profits faster than sales.
- [Defensive Stocks During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-during-a-hard-landing.md)): Defensive stocks usually fall less than the market during a hard landing, because utilities, staples and health care companies have stable demand.
- [Defensive Stocks During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-during-a-recession.md)): Since 1926, U.S. defensive stocks (an equal-weighted blend of four defensive industry groups) returned a median +18.8% in the 12 months after the start.
- [Defensive Stocks During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-during-a-soft-landing.md)): Defensive stocks usually lag the market during a soft landing, because investors prefer growth and cyclical sectors when recession fears fade.
- [Defensive Stocks During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): Since 1926, U.S. defensive stocks (an equal-weighted blend of four defensive industry groups) returned a median +15.5% in the 12 months after the start.
- [Defensive Stocks When GDP Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-when-gdp-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-when-gdp-growth-accelerates.md)): Defensive stocks usually lag when GDP growth accelerates, because investors rotate into cyclical sectors with more operating leverage.
- [Defensive Stocks When GDP Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-when-gdp-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-when-gdp-growth-slows.md)): Defensive stocks usually outperform when GDP growth slows, because investors favor companies with stable demand and dividends.
- [Energy Stocks During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-energy-stocks-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-energy-stocks-during-a-hard-landing.md)): Energy stocks usually fall during a hard landing, because oil and gas prices decline with weaker demand and producers cut spending.
- [Energy Stocks During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-energy-stocks-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-energy-stocks-during-a-recession.md)): Since 1926, U.S. energy stocks (oil, gas and coal) returned a median +10.4% in the 12 months after the start of a recession.
- [Energy Stocks During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-energy-stocks-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-energy-stocks-during-a-soft-landing.md)): Energy stocks are usually mixed during a soft landing, because steady growth supports oil demand while slower growth in some regions and rising supply can.
- [Energy Stocks During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-energy-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-energy-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): Since 1926, U.S. energy stocks (oil, gas and coal) returned a median +16.1% in the 12 months after the start of a recovery.
- [High-Yield Bonds During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-during-a-hard-landing.md)): High-yield bonds usually fall sharply during a hard landing, because default rates rise, credit spreads widen and investors flee risky borrowers.
- [High-Yield Bonds During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-during-a-recession.md)): High-yield bonds usually fall during a recession, because defaults rise and spreads widen, with prices often recovering well before the recession ends.
- [High-Yield Bonds During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-during-a-soft-landing.md)): High-yield bonds usually perform well during a soft landing, because defaults stay low and falling rates reduce financing costs.
- [High-Yield Bonds During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): High-yield bonds usually rally strongly during an economic recovery, because spreads narrow from wide levels and defaults decline.
- [High-Yield Bonds When GDP Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-gdp-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-gdp-growth-accelerates.md)): High-yield bonds usually benefit when GDP growth accelerates, because stronger earnings reduce default risk and spreads narrow.
- [High-Yield Bonds When GDP Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-gdp-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-gdp-growth-slows.md)): High-yield bonds usually weaken when GDP growth slows, because default risk rises and spreads widen, though falling rates can cushion the effect.
- [Industrials During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-industrials-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-industrials-during-a-hard-landing.md)): Industrial stocks usually fall during a hard landing, because orders, capital spending and freight volumes decline, and operating leverage magnifies the effect.
- [Industrials During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-industrials-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-industrials-during-a-recession.md)): Since 1926, U.S. manufacturing stocks (machinery, chemicals, autos and related industries) returned a median +15.7% in the 12 months after the start.
- [Industrials During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-industrials-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-industrials-during-a-soft-landing.md)): Industrial stocks usually do well during a soft landing, because steady growth sustains orders and falling inflation and rates reduce costs and support.
- [Industrials During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-industrials-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-industrials-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): Since 1926, U.S. manufacturing stocks (machinery, chemicals, autos and related industries) returned a median +26.6% in the 12 months after the start.
- [REITs During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-reits-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-reits-during-a-hard-landing.md)): REITs usually fall in the early stage of a hard landing, because tenants default and leasing slows, though falling interest rates can support them later.
- [REITs During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-reits-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-reits-during-a-recession.md)): Since 1971, U.S. equity REITs (the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs total return) returned a median +3.4% in the 12 months after the start of a recession.
- [REITs During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-reits-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-reits-during-a-soft-landing.md)): REITs usually rise modestly during a soft landing, because steady demand supports rents and falling interest rates raise the value of property income.
- [REITs During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-reits-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-reits-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): Since 1971, U.S. equity REITs (the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs total return) returned a median +18.9% in the 12 months after the start of a recovery.
- [S&P 500 During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-during-a-hard-landing.md)): The S&P 500 usually falls substantially during a hard landing, because earnings decline and risk appetite drops, though the index has often bottomed before.
- [S&P 500 During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-during-a-recession.md)): Since 1871, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +9.4% in the 12 months after the start of a recession.
- [S&P 500 During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-during-a-soft-landing.md)): The S&P 500 has tended to rise during a soft landing, because earnings keep growing, inflation eases and interest rates can fall without a recession.
- [S&P 500 During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): Since 1871, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +19.5% in the 12 months after the start of a recovery.
- [Small-Cap Stocks During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-a-hard-landing.md)): Small-cap stocks usually fall more than large caps during a hard landing, because small companies have less diversified revenue and weaker balance sheets.
- [Small-Cap Stocks During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-a-recession.md)): Since 1926, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +16.9% in the 12 months after the start of a recession.
- [Small-Cap Stocks During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-a-soft-landing.md)): Small-cap stocks usually do well during a soft landing, because steady domestic growth and easing financing costs support smaller companies that are more.
- [Small-Cap Stocks During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): Since 1926, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +32.7% in the 12 months after the start of a recovery.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When GDP Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-gdp-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-gdp-growth-accelerates.md)): Small-cap stocks usually outperform when GDP growth accelerates, because they are more sensitive to domestic demand and credit conditions and benefit.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When GDP Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-gdp-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-gdp-growth-slows.md)): Small-cap stocks usually underperform when GDP growth slows, because they have less diversified revenue, more cyclical exposure and greater reliance on bank.
- [Stocks During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-stocks-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-stocks-during-a-hard-landing.md)): Stocks usually fall substantially during a hard landing, because earnings decline and risk appetite drops, though prices often bottom before the economy does.
- [Stocks During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-stocks-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-stocks-during-a-recession.md)): Stocks typically decline during recessions as earnings fall and risk premiums rise. Learn how much markets typically fall, why some sectors hold up.
- [Stocks During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-stocks-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-stocks-during-a-soft-landing.md)): Stocks have tended to rise during a soft landing, because earnings keep growing while inflation and interest rates ease.
- [Stocks During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): Since 1871, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +19.5% in the 12 months after the start of a recovery.
- [Stocks When GDP Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-stocks-when-gdp-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-stocks-when-gdp-growth-accelerates.md)): Stocks usually rise when GDP growth accelerates, because faster growth lifts corporate earnings, though gains can be limited if acceleration pushes interest.
- [Stocks When GDP Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-stocks-when-gdp-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-stocks-when-gdp-growth-slows.md)): Stocks usually struggle when GDP growth slows, because earnings expectations fall, though they can rise if slowing growth leads to expectations of lower.
- [Technology Stocks During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-technology-stocks-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-technology-stocks-during-a-hard-landing.md)): Technology stocks usually fall during a hard landing, because corporate spending on technology is cut and growth valuations compress.
- [Technology Stocks During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-technology-stocks-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-technology-stocks-during-a-recession.md)): Since 1926, U.S. high-technology stocks (business equipment, computers, software and electronics) returned a median +10.7% in the 12 months after the start.
- [Technology Stocks During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-technology-stocks-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-technology-stocks-during-a-soft-landing.md)): Technology stocks usually do well during a soft landing, because steady spending supports earnings and falling interest rates lift the valuations of growth.
- [Technology Stocks During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-technology-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-technology-stocks-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): Since 1926, U.S. high-technology stocks (business equipment, computers, software and electronics) returned a median +16.2% in the 12 months after the start.
- [Treasury Bonds During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-during-a-hard-landing.md)): Treasury bonds usually rise in price during a hard landing, because investors seek safety and the central bank cuts rates, which pushes yields down.
- [Treasury Bonds During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-during-a-recession.md)): Since 1871, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +7.1% in the 12 months after the start of a recession.
- [Treasury Bonds During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-during-a-soft-landing.md)): Treasury bonds usually have modest gains during a soft landing, because falling inflation and eventual rate cuts support prices.
- [Treasury Bonds During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): Since 1871, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +2.4% in the 12 months after the start of a recovery.
- [Treasury Yields When GDP Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-gdp-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-gdp-growth-accelerates.md)): Treasury yields usually rise when GDP growth accelerates, because stronger growth raises expected inflation and interest rates and reduces the demand for safe.
- [Treasury Yields When GDP Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-gdp-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-gdp-growth-slows.md)): Treasury yields usually fall when GDP growth slows, because weaker growth lowers expected inflation and interest rates and raises demand for safe assets.
- [U.S. Dollar During a Hard Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-during-a-hard-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-during-a-hard-landing.md)): The U.S. dollar usually strengthens during a global hard landing, because investors seek safe assets and dollar funding.
- [U.S. Dollar During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-during-a-recession.md)): Since 1964, the U.S. dollar (the BIS trade-weighted index against 27 major partners) changed by a median +1.6% in the 12 months after the start of a recession.
- [U.S. Dollar During a Soft Landing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-during-a-soft-landing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-during-a-soft-landing.md)): The U.S. dollar is usually mixed to weaker during a soft landing, because falling inflation lets the Federal Reserve ease and global growth improves.
- [U.S. Dollar During an Economic Recovery?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-during-an-economic-recovery/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-during-an-economic-recovery.md)): Since 1964, the U.S. dollar (the BIS trade-weighted index against 27 major partners) changed by a median +0.8% in the 12 months after the start of a recovery.
- [U.S. Dollar When GDP Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-gdp-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-gdp-growth-accelerates.md)): The U.S. dollar usually strengthens when U.S. GDP growth accelerates relative to other countries, because stronger growth raises expected interest rates.
- [U.S. Dollar When GDP Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-gdp-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/economic-growth-and-recession/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-gdp-growth-slows.md)): The U.S. dollar usually weakens when U.S. GDP growth slows relative to other countries, because slower growth lowers expected interest rates and reduces.
- [Employment & Labor Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets.md)): What happens to markets when jobs data beats or misses expectations, unemployment rises, wages accelerate, or labor force participation shifts in more than 70.
- [Bank Stocks When Jobless Claims Spike?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-jobless-claims-spike/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-jobless-claims-spike.md)): Bank stocks usually fall when jobless claims spike, because rising unemployment raises expected loan losses and a weakening economy lowers loan demand.
- [Bank Stocks When Payroll Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-payroll-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-payroll-growth-accelerates.md)): Since 1941, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median -3.9% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points.
- [Bank Stocks When Payroll Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-payroll-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-payroll-growth-slows.md)): Since 1941, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +14.9% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points.
- [Bank Stocks When Unemployment Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-unemployment-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-unemployment-falls.md)): Since 1926, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +3.8% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point in the unemployment.
- [Bank Stocks When Unemployment Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-unemployment-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-unemployment-rises.md)): Since 1926, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +38.1% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point in the unemployment.
- [Bank Stocks When Wage Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-wage-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-wage-growth-accelerates.md)): Since 1966, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +15.6% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point in the year-over-year.
- [Bank Stocks When Wage Growth Cools?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-wage-growth-cools/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-wage-growth-cools.md)): Since 1966, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +8.2% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point in the year-over-year.
- [Bonds When Jobless Claims Spike?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bonds-when-jobless-claims-spike/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bonds-when-jobless-claims-spike.md)): Government bond prices usually rise when jobless claims spike, because weaker labor markets point to slower growth and lower inflation.
- [Bonds When Payroll Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bonds-when-payroll-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bonds-when-payroll-growth-accelerates.md)): Since 1941, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +1.2% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points.
- [Bonds When Payroll Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bonds-when-payroll-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bonds-when-payroll-growth-slows.md)): Since 1941, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +4.0% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points.
- [Bonds When Unemployment Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bonds-when-unemployment-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bonds-when-unemployment-falls.md)): Since 1871, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +4.1% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point in the unemployment.
- [Bonds When Unemployment Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bonds-when-unemployment-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bonds-when-unemployment-rises.md)): Since 1871, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +1.9% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point in the unemployment.
- [Bonds When Wage Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bonds-when-wage-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bonds-when-wage-growth-accelerates.md)): Since 1966, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +5.9% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point.
- [Bonds When Wage Growth Cools?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bonds-when-wage-growth-cools/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-bonds-when-wage-growth-cools.md)): Since 1966, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +5.2% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point.
- [Consumer Spending When Jobless Claims Spike?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-consumer-spending-when-jobless-claims-spike/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-consumer-spending-when-jobless-claims-spike.md)): Consumer spending usually slows when jobless claims spike, because people who lose work cut purchases and others worried about their jobs save more.
- [Consumer Spending When Payroll Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-consumer-spending-when-payroll-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-consumer-spending-when-payroll-growth-accelerates.md)): Consumer spending usually rises when payroll growth accelerates, because more people earning wages raises household income and confidence.
- [Consumer Spending When Payroll Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-consumer-spending-when-payroll-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-consumer-spending-when-payroll-growth-slows.md)): Consumer spending usually slows when payroll growth slows, because fewer new jobs reduce income growth and weaken confidence.
- [Consumer Spending When Unemployment Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-consumer-spending-when-unemployment-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-consumer-spending-when-unemployment-falls.md)): Consumer spending usually rises when unemployment falls, because more people have steady income and job security improves confidence.
- [Consumer Spending When Unemployment Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-consumer-spending-when-unemployment-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-consumer-spending-when-unemployment-rises.md)): Consumer spending usually falls when unemployment rises, because job losses reduce income and increase saving among those worried about their own jobs.
- [Consumer Spending When Wage Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-consumer-spending-when-wage-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-consumer-spending-when-wage-growth-accelerates.md)): Consumer spending usually rises when wage growth accelerates, because higher pay increases household purchasing power.
- [Consumer Spending When Wage Growth Cools?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-consumer-spending-when-wage-growth-cools/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-consumer-spending-when-wage-growth-cools.md)): Consumer spending usually grows more slowly when wage growth cools, because smaller pay increases limit purchasing power.
- [Federal Reserve Policy When Jobless Claims Spike?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-federal-reserve-policy-when-jobless-claims-spike/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-federal-reserve-policy-when-jobless-claims-spike.md)): The Federal Reserve is usually more inclined to ease policy or pause tightening when jobless claims spike, because rising claims suggest the labor market.
- [Federal Reserve Policy When Payroll Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-federal-reserve-policy-when-payroll-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-federal-reserve-policy-when-payroll-growth-accelerates.md)): The Federal Reserve is usually less willing to cut rates, and may lean toward tightening, when payroll growth accelerates.
- [Federal Reserve Policy When Payroll Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-federal-reserve-policy-when-payroll-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-federal-reserve-policy-when-payroll-growth-slows.md)): The Federal Reserve is usually more willing to ease policy when payroll growth slows, because weaker hiring reduces inflation pressure and raises the risk.
- [Federal Reserve Policy When Unemployment Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-federal-reserve-policy-when-unemployment-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-federal-reserve-policy-when-unemployment-falls.md)): The Federal Reserve is usually less inclined to cut rates, and may consider tightening, when unemployment falls, because a tight labor market can raise wage.
- [Federal Reserve Policy When Unemployment Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-federal-reserve-policy-when-unemployment-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-federal-reserve-policy-when-unemployment-rises.md)): The Federal Reserve is usually more inclined to ease policy when unemployment rises, because higher unemployment weakens demand and reduces inflation pressure.
- [Federal Reserve Policy When Wage Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-federal-reserve-policy-when-wage-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-federal-reserve-policy-when-wage-growth-accelerates.md)): The Federal Reserve is usually less willing to cut rates when wage growth accelerates, because faster pay growth can feed into services prices and persistent.
- [Federal Reserve Policy When Wage Growth Cools?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-federal-reserve-policy-when-wage-growth-cools/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-federal-reserve-policy-when-wage-growth-cools.md)): The Federal Reserve is usually more willing to ease policy when wage growth cools, because slower pay growth reduces pressure on services inflation and makes.
- [Housing Market When Jobless Claims Spike?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-jobless-claims-spike/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-jobless-claims-spike.md)): The housing market usually weakens when jobless claims spike, because job losses reduce buyers' incomes and confidence and raise the risk of mortgage.
- [Housing Market When Payroll Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-payroll-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-payroll-growth-accelerates.md)): Since 1991, U.S. house prices (the FHFA purchase-only price index) changed by a median +6.4% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points.
- [Housing Market When Payroll Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-payroll-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-payroll-growth-slows.md)): Since 1991, U.S. house prices (the FHFA purchase-only price index) changed by a median +2.7% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points.
- [Housing Market When Unemployment Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-unemployment-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-unemployment-falls.md)): Since 1991, U.S. house prices (the FHFA purchase-only price index) changed by a median +4.8% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point.
- [Housing Market When Unemployment Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-unemployment-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-unemployment-rises.md)): Since 1991, U.S. house prices (the FHFA purchase-only price index) changed by a median +4.7% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point.
- [Housing Market When Wage Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-wage-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-wage-growth-accelerates.md)): Since 1991, U.S. house prices (the FHFA purchase-only price index) changed by a median +5.2% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point.
- [Housing Market When Wage Growth Cools?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-wage-growth-cools/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-wage-growth-cools.md)): Since 1991, U.S. house prices (the FHFA purchase-only price index) changed by a median +6.3% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point.
- [Inflation Expectations When Jobless Claims Spike?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-inflation-expectations-when-jobless-claims-spike/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-inflation-expectations-when-jobless-claims-spike.md)): Inflation expectations usually ease when jobless claims spike, because rising layoffs suggest weaker demand and less wage pressure.
- [Inflation Expectations When Payroll Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-inflation-expectations-when-payroll-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-inflation-expectations-when-payroll-growth-accelerates.md)): Inflation expectations usually rise when payroll growth accelerates, because strong hiring signals tighter labor markets and higher wages.
- [Inflation Expectations When Payroll Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-inflation-expectations-when-payroll-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-inflation-expectations-when-payroll-growth-slows.md)): Inflation expectations usually ease when payroll growth slows, because slower hiring reduces wage pressure and signals weaker demand.
- [Inflation Expectations When Unemployment Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-inflation-expectations-when-unemployment-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-inflation-expectations-when-unemployment-falls.md)): Inflation expectations usually rise when unemployment falls to low levels, because a tight labor market can push up wages and prices.
- [Inflation Expectations When Unemployment Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-inflation-expectations-when-unemployment-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-inflation-expectations-when-unemployment-rises.md)): Inflation expectations usually ease when unemployment rises, because higher unemployment reduces wage pressure and consumer demand.
- [Inflation Expectations When Wage Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-inflation-expectations-when-wage-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-inflation-expectations-when-wage-growth-accelerates.md)): Inflation expectations usually rise when wage growth accelerates, because faster pay growth raises business costs and household demand.
- [Inflation Expectations When Wage Growth Cools?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-inflation-expectations-when-wage-growth-cools/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-inflation-expectations-when-wage-growth-cools.md)): Inflation expectations usually ease when wage growth cools, because slower pay increases reduce cost pressure for businesses and signal a more balanced labor.
- [Retail Stocks When Jobless Claims Spike?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-retail-stocks-when-jobless-claims-spike/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-retail-stocks-when-jobless-claims-spike.md)): Retail stocks usually fall when jobless claims spike, especially those selling discretionary goods, because job losses and worry reduce spending.
- [Retail Stocks When Payroll Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-retail-stocks-when-payroll-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-retail-stocks-when-payroll-growth-accelerates.md)): Since 1941, U.S. retail stocks (the retail industry portfolio) returned a median +6.4% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points.
- [Retail Stocks When Payroll Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-retail-stocks-when-payroll-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-retail-stocks-when-payroll-growth-slows.md)): Since 1941, U.S. retail stocks (the retail industry portfolio) returned a median +19.7% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points.
- [Retail Stocks When Unemployment Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-retail-stocks-when-unemployment-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-retail-stocks-when-unemployment-falls.md)): Since 1926, U.S. retail stocks (the retail industry portfolio) returned a median -2.7% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point in the unemployment.
- [Retail Stocks When Unemployment Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-retail-stocks-when-unemployment-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-retail-stocks-when-unemployment-rises.md)): Since 1926, U.S. retail stocks (the retail industry portfolio) returned a median +44.7% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point in the unemployment.
- [Retail Stocks When Wage Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-retail-stocks-when-wage-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-retail-stocks-when-wage-growth-accelerates.md)): Since 1966, U.S. retail stocks (the retail industry portfolio) returned a median +5.0% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point in the year-over-year.
- [Retail Stocks When Wage Growth Cools?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-retail-stocks-when-wage-growth-cools/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-retail-stocks-when-wage-growth-cools.md)): Since 1966, U.S. retail stocks (the retail industry portfolio) returned a median +14.4% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point in the year-over-year.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When Jobless Claims Spike?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-jobless-claims-spike/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-jobless-claims-spike.md)): Small-cap stocks usually fall more than large caps when jobless claims spike, because small companies are more exposed to domestic demand and credit.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When Payroll Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-payroll-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-payroll-growth-accelerates.md)): Since 1941, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +5.2% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When Payroll Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-payroll-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-payroll-growth-slows.md)): Since 1941, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +16.5% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When Unemployment Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-unemployment-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-unemployment-falls.md)): Since 1926, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +2.3% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When Unemployment Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-unemployment-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-unemployment-rises.md)): Since 1926, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +47.4% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When Wage Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-wage-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-wage-growth-accelerates.md)): Since 1966, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +9.0% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When Wage Growth Cools?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-wage-growth-cools/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-wage-growth-cools.md)): Since 1966, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +7.5% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point.
- [Stocks When Jobless Claims Spike?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-stocks-when-jobless-claims-spike/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-stocks-when-jobless-claims-spike.md)): Stocks usually fall or struggle when jobless claims spike, because rising layoffs point to weaker consumer demand and earnings.
- [Stocks When Payroll Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-stocks-when-payroll-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-stocks-when-payroll-growth-accelerates.md)): Since 1941, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +7.5% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points.
- [Stocks When Payroll Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-stocks-when-payroll-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-stocks-when-payroll-growth-slows.md)): Since 1941, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +16.8% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points.
- [Stocks When Unemployment Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-stocks-when-unemployment-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-stocks-when-unemployment-falls.md)): Since 1871, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +4.5% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point in the unemployment.
- [Stocks When Unemployment Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-stocks-when-unemployment-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-stocks-when-unemployment-rises.md)): Since 1871, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +30.1% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point in the unemployment.
- [Stocks When Wage Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-stocks-when-wage-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-stocks-when-wage-growth-accelerates.md)): Since 1966, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +7.2% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point in the year-over-year.
- [Stocks When Wage Growth Cools?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-stocks-when-wage-growth-cools/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-stocks-when-wage-growth-cools.md)): Since 1966, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +14.6% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point.
- [Treasury Yields When Jobless Claims Spike?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-jobless-claims-spike/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-jobless-claims-spike.md)): Treasury yields usually fall when jobless claims spike, because weaker labor markets point to slower growth and lower inflation.
- [Treasury Yields When Payroll Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-payroll-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-payroll-growth-accelerates.md)): Since 1941, the 10-year Treasury yield changed by a median +0.20 points in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points in the year-over-year growth.
- [Treasury Yields When Payroll Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-payroll-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-payroll-growth-slows.md)): Since 1941, the 10-year Treasury yield changed by a median +0.13 points in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points in the year-over-year growth.
- [Treasury Yields When Unemployment Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-unemployment-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-unemployment-falls.md)): Since 1871, the 10-year Treasury yield changed by a median +0.24 points in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point in the unemployment rate within.
- [Treasury Yields When Unemployment Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-unemployment-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-unemployment-rises.md)): Since 1871, the 10-year Treasury yield changed by a median +0.05 points in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point in the unemployment rate within.
- [Treasury Yields When Wage Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-wage-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-wage-growth-accelerates.md)): Since 1966, the 10-year Treasury yield changed by a median +0.16 points in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point in the year-over-year growth.
- [Treasury Yields When Wage Growth Cools?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-wage-growth-cools/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/employment-and-labor-markets/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-wage-growth-cools.md)): Since 1966, the 10-year Treasury yield changed by a median -0.06 points in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point in the year-over-year growth.
- [ETF & Fund Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios.md)): What happens to ETFs & mutual funds in 30 scenarios covering market dislocations, tracking error events, high redemption pressure, & tax distribution surprises.
- [Bond ETFs During an Index Rebalance?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-during-an-index-rebalance/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-during-an-index-rebalance.md)): A bond ETF that tracks an index sells bonds that leave the index and buys those that enter it during a rebalance, which can create temporary price pressure.
- [Bond ETFs When an ETF Trades at a Large Discount?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-an-etf-trades-at-a-large-discount/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-an-etf-trades-at-a-large-discount.md)): A bond ETF that trades at a large discount to its net asset value means sellers are accepting a price below the value of the bonds held.
- [Bond ETFs When an ETF Trades at a Large Premium?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-an-etf-trades-at-a-large-premium/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-an-etf-trades-at-a-large-premium.md)): A bond ETF that trades at a large premium to its net asset value means buyers are paying more than the value of the bonds held.
- [Bond ETFs When an Index Adds a Constituent?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-an-index-adds-a-constituent/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-an-index-adds-a-constituent.md)): A bond ETF buys a bond when it is added to its index, which can lift that bond's price slightly, but the effect on the fund itself is usually small because it.
- [Bond ETFs When an Index Removes a Constituent?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-an-index-removes-a-constituent/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-an-index-removes-a-constituent.md)): A bond ETF sells a bond when it is removed from its index, which can push that bond's price down for a time, while the fund's own return is little changed.
- [Bond ETFs When ETF Inflows Surge?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-etf-inflows-surge/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-etf-inflows-surge.md)): A bond ETF that attracts surging inflows must buy more bonds, which tends to support the prices of the bonds it holds and compress yields.
- [Bond ETFs When ETF Outflows Surge?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-etf-outflows-surge/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-etf-outflows-surge.md)): A bond ETF facing surging outflows must sell bonds or redeem shares, which can pressure bond prices, especially in less liquid segments.
- [Bond ETFs When Tracking Error Widens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-tracking-error-widens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-tracking-error-widens.md)): A bond ETF's return drifts further from its index when tracking error widens, which usually means higher trading costs.
- [Index ETFs During an Index Rebalance?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-index-etfs-during-an-index-rebalance/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-index-etfs-during-an-index-rebalance.md)): An index ETF trades stocks that enter or leave its index during a rebalance, which can create temporary price pressure in those stocks.
- [Index ETFs When an ETF Trades at a Large Discount?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-index-etfs-when-an-etf-trades-at-a-large-discount/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-index-etfs-when-an-etf-trades-at-a-large-discount.md)): An index ETF that trades at a large discount to net asset value is selling below the worth of its holdings, which is rare for liquid stock funds and usually.
- [Index ETFs When an ETF Trades at a Large Premium?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-index-etfs-when-an-etf-trades-at-a-large-premium/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-index-etfs-when-an-etf-trades-at-a-large-premium.md)): An index ETF that trades at a large premium to net asset value is priced above its holdings, usually briefly, and the gap tends to close as authorized.
- [Index ETFs When an Index Adds a Constituent?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-index-etfs-when-an-index-adds-a-constituent/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-index-etfs-when-an-index-adds-a-constituent.md)): An index ETF buys a stock when it is added to its index, which has often lifted that stock's price around the addition date.
- [Index ETFs When an Index Removes a Constituent?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-index-etfs-when-an-index-removes-a-constituent/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-index-etfs-when-an-index-removes-a-constituent.md)): An index ETF sells a stock when it is removed from its index, which has often pressured that stock around the removal date.
- [Index ETFs When ETF Inflows Surge?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-index-etfs-when-etf-inflows-surge/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-index-etfs-when-etf-inflows-surge.md)): An index ETF that attracts surging inflows buys its holdings in index proportion, which tends to support the largest stocks most.
- [Index ETFs When ETF Outflows Surge?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-index-etfs-when-etf-outflows-surge/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-index-etfs-when-etf-outflows-surge.md)): An index ETF facing surging outflows sells its holdings in index proportion, which adds modest selling pressure to the largest stocks and can magnify a market.
- [Index ETFs When Tracking Error Widens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-index-etfs-when-tracking-error-widens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-index-etfs-when-tracking-error-widens.md)): An index ETF's return drifts from its index when tracking error widens, which for a plain stock index fund is unusual and usually reflects fees, cash drag.
- [Inverse ETFs When a Leveraged ETF Is Held for Weeks?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-inverse-etfs-when-a-leveraged-etf-is-held-for-weeks/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-inverse-etfs-when-a-leveraged-etf-is-held-for-weeks.md)): An inverse ETF held for weeks can lose money even when the market falls, because it resets daily, and compounding in a volatile market makes its multi-week.
- [Inverse ETFs When an Inverse ETF Is Held Through a Rebound?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-inverse-etfs-when-an-inverse-etf-is-held-through-a-rebound/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-inverse-etfs-when-an-inverse-etf-is-held-through-a-rebound.md)): An inverse ETF held through a market rebound loses value quickly, and because of daily compounding it may not recover its earlier gains when the market later.
- [Inverse ETFs When Volatility Spikes in a Leveraged ETF?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-inverse-etfs-when-volatility-spikes-in-a-leveraged-etf/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-inverse-etfs-when-volatility-spikes-in-a-leveraged-etf.md)): An inverse ETF can suffer large decay when volatility spikes, because large daily swings in both directions reduce value over time.
- [Leveraged ETFs When a Leveraged ETF Is Held for Weeks?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-leveraged-etfs-when-a-leveraged-etf-is-held-for-weeks/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-leveraged-etfs-when-a-leveraged-etf-is-held-for-weeks.md)): A leveraged ETF held for weeks does not deliver a simple multiple of the index return, because it resets daily, so compounding can magnify gains in steady.
- [Leveraged ETFs When an Inverse ETF Is Held Through a Rebound?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-leveraged-etfs-when-an-inverse-etf-is-held-through-a-rebound/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-leveraged-etfs-when-an-inverse-etf-is-held-through-a-rebound.md)): A leveraged ETF is affected by rebounds differently from an inverse one: after a sharp fall and rebound.
- [Leveraged ETFs When Volatility Spikes in a Leveraged ETF?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-leveraged-etfs-when-volatility-spikes-in-a-leveraged-etf/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-leveraged-etfs-when-volatility-spikes-in-a-leveraged-etf.md)): A leveraged ETF usually suffers decay when volatility spikes, because large daily swings in both directions reduce its compounded return.
- [Sector ETFs During an Index Rebalance?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-sector-etfs-during-an-index-rebalance/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-sector-etfs-during-an-index-rebalance.md)): A sector ETF trades stocks that enter or leave its index during a rebalance, which can create temporary price pressure in those stocks.
- [Sector ETFs When an ETF Trades at a Large Discount?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-sector-etfs-when-an-etf-trades-at-a-large-discount/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-sector-etfs-when-an-etf-trades-at-a-large-discount.md)): A sector ETF that trades at a large discount to net asset value is selling below the worth of its holdings, usually in stress or when underlying stocks are not.
- [Sector ETFs When an ETF Trades at a Large Premium?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-sector-etfs-when-an-etf-trades-at-a-large-premium/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-sector-etfs-when-an-etf-trades-at-a-large-premium.md)): A sector ETF that trades at a large premium to net asset value is priced above its holdings, usually briefly, and the gap tends to close as authorized.
- [Sector ETFs When an Index Adds a Constituent?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-sector-etfs-when-an-index-adds-a-constituent/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-sector-etfs-when-an-index-adds-a-constituent.md)): A sector ETF buys a stock when it is added to its index, which can lift that stock's price around the addition date, and sector funds hold fewer stocks.
- [Sector ETFs When an Index Removes a Constituent?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-sector-etfs-when-an-index-removes-a-constituent/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-sector-etfs-when-an-index-removes-a-constituent.md)): A sector ETF sells a stock when it is removed from its index, which can pressure that stock around the removal date, and the change matters more in sector.
- [Sector ETFs When ETF Inflows Surge?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-sector-etfs-when-etf-inflows-surge/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-sector-etfs-when-etf-inflows-surge.md)): A sector ETF that attracts surging inflows buys its holdings in index proportion, which can lift prices of the sector's largest stocks.
- [Sector ETFs When ETF Outflows Surge?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-sector-etfs-when-etf-outflows-surge/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-sector-etfs-when-etf-outflows-surge.md)): A sector ETF facing surging outflows sells its holdings in index proportion, which can pressure the sector's largest stocks, and because sectors are narrow.
- [Sector ETFs When Tracking Error Widens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-sector-etfs-when-tracking-error-widens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/etf-and-fund-scenarios/what-happens-to-sector-etfs-when-tracking-error-widens.md)): A sector ETF's return drifts from its index when tracking error widens, which can reflect fees, cap rules, trading costs or illiquid holdings.
- [Event-Driven Market Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios.md)): What happens to markets and specific positions during 24 event-driven scenarios: M&A announcements, earnings surprises, index rebalances, and data releases.
- [Bonds After a CPI Release?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-bonds-after-a-cpi-release/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-bonds-after-a-cpi-release.md)): Bond prices usually fall after a Consumer Price Index report that is higher than expected and rise after one that is lower.
- [Bonds After a Fed Decision?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-bonds-after-a-fed-decision/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-bonds-after-a-fed-decision.md)): Bond prices after a Federal Reserve decision depend on whether the decision and its guidance were more or less hawkish than expected.
- [Bonds After a GDP Release?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-bonds-after-a-gdp-release/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-bonds-after-a-gdp-release.md)): Bond prices usually fall after a GDP report that shows stronger growth than expected and rise after weaker growth.
- [Bonds After the Jobs Report?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-bonds-after-the-jobs-report/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-bonds-after-the-jobs-report.md)): Bond prices usually fall after a jobs report that is stronger than expected and rise after one that is weaker, because employment and wage data shape.
- [Stocks After a CPI Release?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-after-a-cpi-release/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-after-a-cpi-release.md)): Stocks usually fall after a Consumer Price Index report that is higher than expected and rise after one that is lower.
- [Stocks After a Fed Decision?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-after-a-fed-decision/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-after-a-fed-decision.md)): Stocks after a Federal Reserve decision depend on whether the decision and guidance are more or less supportive than expected.
- [Stocks After a GDP Release?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-after-a-gdp-release/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-after-a-gdp-release.md)): Stocks usually react only modestly after a GDP release, because the data describe a past quarter and many of its components are already known.
- [Stocks After a Stock Split?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-after-a-stock-split/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-after-a-stock-split.md)): A stock split divides existing shares into more shares and leaves the company's value unchanged, so any price move after it reflects what the split signals.
- [Stocks After an IPO Lockup Expiration?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-after-an-ipo-lockup-expiration/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-after-an-ipo-lockup-expiration.md)): Stocks have often drifted lower around the expiration of an IPO lockup, because insiders and early investors become free to sell shares, which increases supply.
- [What Happens to Stocks After an IPO?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-after-an-ipo/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-after-an-ipo.md)): Newly listed stocks have often priced above the offer on the first day but have lagged the market over the following years on average.
- [Stocks After the Jobs Report?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-after-the-jobs-report/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-after-the-jobs-report.md)): Stocks after the jobs report depend on whether strong or weak jobs data is read as good or bad for rates: strong hiring supports earnings but can lift interest.
- [Stocks Around a Major Index Rebalance?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-around-a-major-index-rebalance/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-around-a-major-index-rebalance.md)): Stocks that are added to or removed from a major index around a rebalance often see price pressure and heavy trading at the close of the effective date.
- [Stocks During Earnings Season?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-during-earnings-season/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-during-earnings-season.md)): Individual stocks usually become more volatile during earnings season, because companies report results and guidance, while the overall market reacts mostly.
- [Stocks During Triple Witching?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-during-triple-witching/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-during-triple-witching.md)): Stocks usually see higher trading volume and sometimes sharp short-term swings during triple witching, the quarterly expiry of stock options.
- [Stocks Near Monthly Options Expiration?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-near-monthly-options-expiration/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-near-monthly-options-expiration.md)): Stocks can be pulled toward large option strike prices and can see heavier trading near monthly options expiration, but the effect is modest and short-lived.
- [Stocks On the Ex-Dividend Date?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-on-the-ex-dividend-date/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-stocks-on-the-ex-dividend-date.md)): A stock's price usually falls by about the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend date, because buyers on or after that date no longer receive the payment.
- [Treasury Yields After a CPI Release?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-after-a-cpi-release/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-after-a-cpi-release.md)): Treasury yields usually rise after a Consumer Price Index report higher than expected and fall after one lower than expected.
- [Treasury Yields After a Fed Decision?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-after-a-fed-decision/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-after-a-fed-decision.md)): Treasury yields after a Federal Reserve decision depend on how the decision and guidance compare with expectations, with short and intermediate maturities.
- [Treasury Yields After a GDP Release?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-after-a-gdp-release/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-after-a-gdp-release.md)): Treasury yields usually rise after a GDP report showing stronger growth than expected and fall after weaker growth.
- [Treasury Yields After the Jobs Report?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-after-the-jobs-report/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-after-the-jobs-report.md)): Treasury yields usually rise after a jobs report stronger than expected and fall after a weaker one, because hiring and wage growth shape expectations.
- [U.S. Dollar After a CPI Release?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-after-a-cpi-release/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-after-a-cpi-release.md)): The U.S. dollar usually strengthens after a Consumer Price Index report higher than expected and weakens after one lower than expected.
- [U.S. Dollar After a Fed Decision?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-after-a-fed-decision/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-after-a-fed-decision.md)): The U.S. dollar after a Federal Reserve decision depends on whether the decision and guidance are more or less hawkish than expected.
- [U.S. Dollar After a GDP Release?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-after-a-gdp-release/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-after-a-gdp-release.md)): The U.S. dollar usually strengthens modestly after U.S. GDP growth beats expectations and weakens after it disappoints.
- [U.S. Dollar After the Jobs Report?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-after-the-jobs-report/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/event-driven-scenarios/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-after-the-jobs-report.md)): The U.S. dollar usually strengthens after a jobs report stronger than expected and weakens after a weaker one, because hiring and wages shape expectations.
- [Geopolitical Risk Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios.md)): What happens to global markets, specific sectors, and portfolio hedges in 23 geopolitical scenarios including trade wars, sanctions, energy disruptions.
- [Global Stocks After a Systemic Cyberattack?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-global-stocks-after-a-systemic-cyberattack/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-global-stocks-after-a-systemic-cyberattack.md)): Global stocks usually fall after a systemic cyberattack, particularly in the affected sectors, because the attack disrupts payments.
- [Global Stocks During a Global Supply-Chain Disruption?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-global-stocks-during-a-global-supply-chain-disruption/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-global-stocks-during-a-global-supply-chain-disruption.md)): Global stocks usually struggle during a global supply chain disruption, because shortages and delays raise costs and reduce output, and inflation can follow.
- [Global Stocks During a Major Shipping Disruption?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-global-stocks-during-a-major-shipping-disruption/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-global-stocks-during-a-major-shipping-disruption.md)): Global stocks usually fall modestly during a major shipping disruption, because longer routes and higher freight costs reduce margins and delay deliveries.
- [Global Stocks During a Major War?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-global-stocks-during-a-major-war/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-global-stocks-during-a-major-war.md)): Global stocks usually fall when a major war breaks out, because uncertainty, higher energy and commodity prices and disrupted trade weigh on growth.
- [Global Stocks During a Sovereign Default?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-global-stocks-during-a-sovereign-default/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-global-stocks-during-a-sovereign-default.md)): Global stocks usually fall during a sovereign default, particularly in the defaulting country and among its creditors.
- [Global Stocks If a Major Oil Transit Strait Closes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-global-stocks-if-a-major-oil-transit-strait-closes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-global-stocks-if-a-major-oil-transit-strait-closes.md)): Global stocks would usually fall if a major oil transit strait closes, because oil prices would spike, inflation fears rise and growth expectations fall.
- [Global Stocks When Capital Controls Are Imposed?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-global-stocks-when-capital-controls-are-imposed/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-global-stocks-when-capital-controls-are-imposed.md)): Stocks in the country imposing capital controls usually fall, and foreign investors lose access to their money, while the effect on global stocks depends.
- [Global Stocks When Sanctions Expand?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-global-stocks-when-sanctions-expand/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-global-stocks-when-sanctions-expand.md)): Global stocks are usually only modestly affected when sanctions expand, but the sanctioned country's markets and companies fall sharply and trade partners.
- [Gold After a Systemic Cyberattack?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-after-a-systemic-cyberattack/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-after-a-systemic-cyberattack.md)): Gold usually rises modestly after a systemic cyberattack if confidence in financial systems is shaken, but its reaction depends on whether markets see.
- [Gold During a Global Supply-Chain Disruption?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-during-a-global-supply-chain-disruption/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-during-a-global-supply-chain-disruption.md)): Gold has had a mixed record during global supply chain disruptions: it can rise if disruptions lift inflation and fear.
- [Gold During a Major Shipping Disruption?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-during-a-major-shipping-disruption/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-during-a-major-shipping-disruption.md)): Gold usually rises slightly during a major shipping disruption if the event raises risk aversion and inflation worries.
- [What Happens to Gold During a Major War?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-during-a-major-war/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-during-a-major-war.md)): Gold usually rises during a major war, because investors seek safety and fear inflation, though gains have often been concentrated at the start and fade if.
- [Gold During a Sovereign Default?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-during-a-sovereign-default/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-during-a-sovereign-default.md)): Gold usually rises during a sovereign default in the defaulting country, because local investors seek an asset outside the banking system.
- [Gold If a Major Oil Transit Strait Closes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-if-a-major-oil-transit-strait-closes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-if-a-major-oil-transit-strait-closes.md)): Gold would usually rise if a major oil transit strait closes, because the event raises inflation and geopolitical fear.
- [Gold When Capital Controls Are Imposed?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-when-capital-controls-are-imposed/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-when-capital-controls-are-imposed.md)): Gold usually rises in the country where capital controls are imposed, because local investors seek a store of value they can hold outside the banking system.
- [Gold When Sanctions Expand?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-when-sanctions-expand/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-gold-when-sanctions-expand.md)): Gold usually benefits when sanctions expand, because countries under sanctions and others wary of frozen reserves buy gold.
- [Oil After a Systemic Cyberattack?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-after-a-systemic-cyberattack/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-after-a-systemic-cyberattack.md)): Oil prices usually fall or are little changed after a systemic cyberattack, because the main effect is disruption to economic activity and demand.
- [Oil During a Global Supply-Chain Disruption?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-during-a-global-supply-chain-disruption/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-during-a-global-supply-chain-disruption.md)): Oil prices usually fall or are little changed during a global supply chain disruption that reduces industrial activity.
- [What Happens to Oil During a Major War?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-during-a-major-war/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-during-a-major-war.md)): Oil prices usually rise during a major war that involves producing regions or sanctions on a large exporter, because supply is at risk.
- [Oil During a Sovereign Default?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-during-a-sovereign-default/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-during-a-sovereign-default.md)): Oil prices are usually little changed during a sovereign default in a non-producing country, but a default by a major oil exporter can reduce its output.
- [Oil If a Major Oil Transit Strait Closes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-if-a-major-oil-transit-strait-closes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-if-a-major-oil-transit-strait-closes.md)): Oil prices would usually spike if a major oil transit strait closes, because a large share of seaborne crude passes through a few narrow routes and there.
- [Oil When Capital Controls Are Imposed?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-when-capital-controls-are-imposed/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-when-capital-controls-are-imposed.md)): Oil prices are usually little affected when capital controls are imposed in a country, unless the country is a major oil producer or consumer.
- [Oil When Sanctions Expand?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-when-sanctions-expand/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/geopolitical-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-when-sanctions-expand.md)): Oil prices usually rise when sanctions expand on a major oil exporter, because barrels are removed or rerouted, though the effect is limited if the oil still.
- [Inflation Scenarios: What Happens](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation.md)): How high inflation, disinflation and deflation typically affect stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate. Scenario guides with historical context.
- [Bank Stocks During Deflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-during-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-during-deflation.md)): Since 1926, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +26.8% in the 12 months after consumer prices starting to fall year over year.
- [Bank Stocks During Stagflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-during-stagflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-during-stagflation.md)): Since 1926, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +24.8% in the 12 months after inflation of 4% or more with unemployment up.
- [Bank Stocks When Inflation Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-inflation-falls.md)): Since 1926, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +7.2% in the 12 months after a fall in inflation of at least 2 points within.
- [Bank Stocks When Inflation Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-inflation-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-inflation-rises.md)): Since 1926, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +7.1% in the 12 months after a rise in inflation of at least 2 points within.
- [Bitcoin During Deflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-deflation.md)): Since 2010, bitcoin (the month-end price in dollars) changed by a median +68.6% in the 12 months after consumer prices starting to fall year over year.
- [Bitcoin During Stagflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-stagflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-stagflation.md)): Bitcoin has no long record in a stagflation like the 1970s, so its behavior is uncertain: it has fallen when high inflation led to rate hikes and weak growth.
- [Bitcoin When Inflation Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-inflation-falls.md)): Since 2010, bitcoin (the month-end price in dollars) changed by a median +149.8% in the 12 months after a fall in inflation of at least 2 points within a year.
- [Bitcoin When Inflation Is Higher Than Expected?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-inflation-is-higher-than-expected/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-inflation-is-higher-than-expected.md)): Bitcoin has usually fallen in the short run when inflation comes in higher than expected, because the surprise raises interest rate expectations and weakens.
- [Bitcoin When Inflation Is Lower Than Expected?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-inflation-is-lower-than-expected/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-inflation-is-lower-than-expected.md)): Bitcoin has usually risen in the short run when inflation comes in lower than expected, because the surprise lowers interest rate expectations and supports.
- [Bitcoin When Inflation Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-inflation-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-inflation-rises.md)): Since 2010, bitcoin (the month-end price in dollars) changed by a median -34.7% in the 12 months after a rise in inflation of at least 2 points within a year.
- [What Happens to Bonds During Deflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bonds-during-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bonds-during-deflation.md)): Since 1871, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +3.7% in the 12 months after consumer prices starting to fall year.
- [Bonds During High Inflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bonds-during-high-inflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bonds-during-high-inflation.md)): How high inflation typically affects bond returns, real yields, duration risk, TIPS and investment-grade vs. high-yield bonds.
- [Bonds During Stagflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bonds-during-stagflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bonds-during-stagflation.md)): Since 1871, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +6.4% in the 12 months after inflation of 4% or more with unemployment up.
- [Bonds When Inflation Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bonds-when-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bonds-when-inflation-falls.md)): Since 1871, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +3.7% in the 12 months after a fall in inflation of at least 2 points.
- [Bonds When Inflation Is Higher Than Expected?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bonds-when-inflation-is-higher-than-expected/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bonds-when-inflation-is-higher-than-expected.md)): Bond prices usually fall when inflation comes in higher than expected, because investors demand higher yields for inflation risk and expect tighter policy.
- [Bonds When Inflation Is Lower Than Expected?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bonds-when-inflation-is-lower-than-expected/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bonds-when-inflation-is-lower-than-expected.md)): Bond prices usually rise when inflation comes in lower than expected, because investors need less compensation for inflation and expect easier policy.
- [Bonds When Inflation Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bonds-when-inflation-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-bonds-when-inflation-rises.md)): Since 1871, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +3.8% in the 12 months after a rise in inflation of at least 2 points.
- [Commodities During Deflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-commodities-during-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-commodities-during-deflation.md)): Commodity prices usually fall during deflation, because falling prices often reflect weak demand and excess supply, and a stronger dollar and falling activity.
- [Commodities During Stagflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-commodities-during-stagflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-commodities-during-stagflation.md)): Commodity prices have usually risen during stagflation when the cause is a supply shock such as an oil embargo, because commodities are the source.
- [Commodities When Inflation Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-commodities-when-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-commodities-when-inflation-falls.md)): Commodity prices usually soften when inflation falls, because falling inflation often reflects lower energy and raw material prices or weaker demand.
- [Commodities When Inflation Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-commodities-when-inflation-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-commodities-when-inflation-rises.md)): Commodity prices usually rise when inflation rises, particularly energy and industrial raw materials, because they are inputs to consumer prices and often.
- [Consumer Discretionary Stocks During Deflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-consumer-discretionary-stocks-during-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-consumer-discretionary-stocks-during-deflation.md)): Consumer discretionary stocks usually struggle during deflation, because falling prices often come with weak demand, and consumers delay purchases when they.
- [Consumer Discretionary Stocks During Stagflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-consumer-discretionary-stocks-during-stagflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-consumer-discretionary-stocks-during-stagflation.md)): Consumer discretionary stocks usually fall during stagflation, because high inflation erodes real incomes while slow growth and weak jobs cut demand.
- [Consumer Discretionary Stocks When Inflation Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-consumer-discretionary-stocks-when-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-consumer-discretionary-stocks-when-inflation-falls.md)): Consumer discretionary stocks usually benefit when inflation falls, because lower prices raise real incomes and make room for non-essential spending.
- [Consumer Discretionary Stocks When Inflation Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-consumer-discretionary-stocks-when-inflation-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-consumer-discretionary-stocks-when-inflation-rises.md)): Consumer discretionary stocks usually lag when inflation rises, because higher prices squeeze household budgets and raise company costs.
- [Consumer Staples Stocks During Deflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-consumer-staples-stocks-during-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-consumer-staples-stocks-during-deflation.md)): Since 1926, U.S. consumer nondurables stocks (food, tobacco, apparel and similar), the closest long-history grouping to consumer staples returned a median.
- [Consumer Staples Stocks During Stagflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-consumer-staples-stocks-during-stagflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-consumer-staples-stocks-during-stagflation.md)): Since 1926, U.S. consumer nondurables stocks (food, tobacco, apparel and similar), the closest long-history grouping to consumer staples returned a median.
- [Consumer Staples Stocks When Inflation Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-consumer-staples-stocks-when-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-consumer-staples-stocks-when-inflation-falls.md)): Since 1926, U.S. consumer nondurables stocks (food, tobacco, apparel and similar), the closest long-history grouping to consumer staples returned a median.
- [Consumer Staples Stocks When Inflation Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-consumer-staples-stocks-when-inflation-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-consumer-staples-stocks-when-inflation-rises.md)): Since 1926, U.S. consumer nondurables stocks (food, tobacco, apparel and similar), the closest long-history grouping to consumer staples returned a median.
- [What Happens to Gold During Deflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-gold-during-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-gold-during-deflation.md)): Since 1971, gold (the World Bank monthly average price in dollars) changed by a median +4.1% in the 12 months after consumer prices starting to fall year.
- [What Happens to Gold During Stagflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-gold-during-stagflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-gold-during-stagflation.md)): Since 1971, gold (the World Bank monthly average price in dollars) changed by a median -4.7% in the 12 months after inflation of 4% or more with unemployment.
- [Gold When Inflation Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-gold-when-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-gold-when-inflation-falls.md)): Since 1971, gold (the World Bank monthly average price in dollars) changed by a median +12.8% in the 12 months after a fall in inflation of at least 2 points.
- [Gold When Inflation Is Higher Than Expected?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-gold-when-inflation-is-higher-than-expected/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-gold-when-inflation-is-higher-than-expected.md)): Gold's reaction to an inflation surprise is mixed in the short run: higher-than-expected inflation can lift gold as an inflation hedge.
- [Gold When Inflation Is Lower Than Expected?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-gold-when-inflation-is-lower-than-expected/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-gold-when-inflation-is-lower-than-expected.md)): Gold's reaction to a downside inflation surprise is mixed: gold can fall because there is less need for an inflation hedge.
- [Gold When Inflation Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-gold-when-inflation-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-gold-when-inflation-rises.md)): Since 1971, gold (the World Bank monthly average price in dollars) changed by a median +16.3% in the 12 months after a rise in inflation of at least 2 points.
- [Growth Stocks During Deflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-during-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-during-deflation.md)): Since 1926, U.S. growth stocks (the 20% with the lowest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +35.3% in the 12 months after consumer prices starting to fall.
- [Growth Stocks During Stagflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-during-stagflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-during-stagflation.md)): Since 1926, U.S. growth stocks (the 20% with the lowest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +38.3% in the 12 months after inflation of 4% or more.
- [Growth Stocks When Inflation Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-inflation-falls.md)): Since 1926, U.S. growth stocks (the 20% with the lowest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +18.6% in the 12 months after a fall in inflation of at least.
- [Growth Stocks When Inflation Is Higher Than Expected?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-inflation-is-higher-than-expected/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-inflation-is-higher-than-expected.md)): Growth stocks usually fall when inflation comes in higher than expected, because the surprise lifts interest rate expectations and discount rates.
- [Growth Stocks When Inflation Is Lower Than Expected?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-inflation-is-lower-than-expected/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-inflation-is-lower-than-expected.md)): Growth stocks usually rise when inflation comes in lower than expected, because the surprise lowers interest rate expectations and discount rates.
- [Growth Stocks When Inflation Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-inflation-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-inflation-rises.md)): Since 1926, U.S. growth stocks (the 20% with the lowest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +1.6% in the 12 months after a rise in inflation of at least 2.
- [Real Estate During Inflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-real-estate-during-inflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-real-estate-during-inflation.md)): How high inflation typically affects home prices, real estate investment returns, rental income, construction costs, and REITs in inflationary environments.
- [What Happens to REITs During Deflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-reits-during-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-reits-during-deflation.md)): Since 1971, U.S. equity REITs (the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs total return) returned a median +50.1% in the 12 months after consumer prices starting to fall.
- [REITs During Stagflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-reits-during-stagflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-reits-during-stagflation.md)): Since 1971, U.S. equity REITs (the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs total return) returned a median +21.2% in the 12 months after inflation of 4% or more.
- [REITs When Inflation Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-reits-when-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-reits-when-inflation-falls.md)): Since 1971, U.S. equity REITs (the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs total return) returned a median +8.4% in the 12 months after a fall in inflation of at least 2.
- [REITs When Inflation Is Higher Than Expected?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-reits-when-inflation-is-higher-than-expected/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-reits-when-inflation-is-higher-than-expected.md)): REITs usually fall in the short run when inflation comes in higher than expected, because higher interest rate expectations raise financing costs and lower.
- [REITs When Inflation Is Lower Than Expected?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-reits-when-inflation-is-lower-than-expected/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-reits-when-inflation-is-lower-than-expected.md)): REITs usually rise when inflation comes in lower than expected, because lower interest rate expectations reduce financing costs and raise valuations.
- [REITs When Inflation Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-reits-when-inflation-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-reits-when-inflation-rises.md)): Since 1971, U.S. equity REITs (the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs total return) returned a median +17.0% in the 12 months after a rise in inflation of at least 2.
- [Retirement Portfolios During Deflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolios-during-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolios-during-deflation.md)): A retirement portfolio usually benefits from its high-quality bonds and cash during deflation, because fixed payments buy more as prices fall.
- [Retirement Portfolios During Stagflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolios-during-stagflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolios-during-stagflation.md)): A retirement portfolio usually suffers during stagflation, because stocks and bonds can both fall while inflation raises living costs.
- [Retirement Portfolios When Inflation Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolios-when-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolios-when-inflation-falls.md)): A retirement portfolio usually benefits when inflation falls, because bond yields tend to decline and bond prices rise.
- [Retirement Portfolios When Inflation Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolios-when-inflation-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolios-when-inflation-rises.md)): A retirement portfolio usually loses purchasing power when inflation rises, particularly its bond and cash holdings, and equities provide only partial.
- [Small-Cap Stocks During Deflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-deflation.md)): Since 1926, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +43.7% in the 12 months after consumer prices starting to fall year.
- [Small-Cap Stocks During Stagflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-stagflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-stagflation.md)): Since 1926, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +47.4% in the 12 months after inflation of 4% or more with unemployment.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When Inflation Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-inflation-falls.md)): Since 1926, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +11.3% in the 12 months after a fall in inflation of at least 2 points.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When Inflation Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-inflation-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-inflation-rises.md)): Since 1926, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median -12.1% in the 12 months after a rise in inflation of at least 2 points.
- [What Happens to Stocks During Deflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-stocks-during-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-stocks-during-deflation.md)): Since 1871, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +17.9% in the 12 months after consumer prices starting to fall year.
- [Stocks During High Inflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-stocks-during-high-inflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-stocks-during-high-inflation.md)): How sustained high inflation typically affects stock returns, valuations, sector performance and earnings. Historical context from the 1970s, 2021-2022.
- [Stocks During Stagflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-stocks-during-stagflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-stocks-during-stagflation.md)): Since 1871, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +30.1% in the 12 months after inflation of 4% or more with unemployment up.
- [Stocks When Inflation Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-stocks-when-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-stocks-when-inflation-falls.md)): Since 1871, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +15.1% in the 12 months after a fall in inflation of at least 2 points within.
- [Stocks When Inflation Is Higher Than Expected?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-stocks-when-inflation-is-higher-than-expected/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-stocks-when-inflation-is-higher-than-expected.md)): Stocks usually fall on the day inflation comes in higher than expected, because the surprise raises interest rate expectations and discount rates.
- [Stocks When Inflation Is Lower Than Expected?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-stocks-when-inflation-is-lower-than-expected/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-stocks-when-inflation-is-lower-than-expected.md)): Stocks usually rise on the day inflation comes in lower than expected, because the surprise lowers interest rate expectations and discount rates.
- [Stocks When Inflation Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-stocks-when-inflation-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-stocks-when-inflation-rises.md)): Since 1871, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +6.0% in the 12 months after a rise in inflation of at least 2 points within.
- [What Happens to TIPS During Deflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-tips-during-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-tips-during-deflation.md)): Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities lose value in their principal adjustment during deflation, because principal falls with the Consumer Price Index.
- [What Happens to TIPS During Stagflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-tips-during-stagflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-tips-during-stagflation.md)): Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities usually hold their real value during stagflation, because principal rises with inflation.
- [TIPS When Inflation Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-tips-when-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-tips-when-inflation-falls.md)): Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities usually underperform nominal Treasuries when inflation falls, because their principal grows more slowly.
- [TIPS When Inflation Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-tips-when-inflation-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-tips-when-inflation-rises.md)): Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities usually outperform nominal Treasuries when inflation rises, because their principal is adjusted upward.
- [Treasury Yields During Deflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-during-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-during-deflation.md)): Since 1871, the 10-year Treasury yield changed by a median -0.01 points in the 12 months after consumer prices starting to fall year over year.
- [Treasury Yields During Stagflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-during-stagflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-during-stagflation.md)): Since 1871, the 10-year Treasury yield changed by a median -0.59 points in the 12 months after inflation of 4% or more with unemployment up at least 1 point.
- [Treasury Yields When Inflation Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-inflation-falls.md)): Since 1871, the 10-year Treasury yield changed by a median -0.05 points in the 12 months after a fall in inflation of at least 2 points within a year.
- [Treasury Yields When Inflation Is Higher Than Expected?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-inflation-is-higher-than-expected/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-inflation-is-higher-than-expected.md)): Treasury yields usually rise when inflation comes in higher than expected, because investors demand more compensation for inflation and expect tighter policy.
- [Treasury Yields When Inflation Is Lower Than Expected?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-inflation-is-lower-than-expected/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-inflation-is-lower-than-expected.md)): Treasury yields usually fall when inflation comes in lower than expected, because investors expect easier policy and need less compensation for inflation.
- [Treasury Yields When Inflation Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-inflation-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-inflation-rises.md)): Since 1871, the 10-year Treasury yield changed by a median -0.01 points in the 12 months after a rise in inflation of at least 2 points within a year.
- [U.S. Dollar During Deflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-during-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-during-deflation.md)): Since 1964, the U.S. dollar (the BIS trade-weighted index against 27 major partners) changed by a median -1.0% in the 12 months after consumer prices starting.
- [U.S. Dollar During Stagflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-during-stagflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-during-stagflation.md)): Since 1964, the U.S. dollar (the BIS trade-weighted index against 27 major partners) changed by a median +0.9% in the 12 months after inflation of 4% or more.
- [U.S. Dollar When Inflation Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-inflation-falls.md)): Since 1964, the U.S. dollar (the BIS trade-weighted index against 27 major partners) changed by a median -3.2% in the 12 months after a fall in inflation.
- [U.S. Dollar When Inflation Is Higher Than Expected?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-inflation-is-higher-than-expected/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-inflation-is-higher-than-expected.md)): The U.S. dollar usually strengthens in the short run when inflation comes in higher than expected, because the surprise raises expectations of tighter Federal.
- [U.S. Dollar When Inflation Is Lower Than Expected?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-inflation-is-lower-than-expected/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-inflation-is-lower-than-expected.md)): The U.S. dollar usually weakens in the short run when inflation comes in lower than expected, because the surprise lowers expectations of Federal Reserve.
- [U.S. Dollar When Inflation Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-inflation-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-inflation-rises.md)): Since 1964, the U.S. dollar (the BIS trade-weighted index against 27 major partners) changed by a median +0.6% in the 12 months after a rise in inflation.
- [Utilities During Deflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-utilities-during-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-utilities-during-deflation.md)): Since 1926, U.S. utility stocks (the utilities industry portfolio) returned a median +17.8% in the 12 months after consumer prices starting to fall year.
- [Utilities During Stagflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-utilities-during-stagflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-utilities-during-stagflation.md)): Since 1926, U.S. utility stocks (the utilities industry portfolio) returned a median +12.1% in the 12 months after inflation of 4% or more with unemployment up.
- [Utilities When Inflation Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-utilities-when-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-utilities-when-inflation-falls.md)): Since 1926, U.S. utility stocks (the utilities industry portfolio) returned a median +15.2% in the 12 months after a fall in inflation of at least 2 points.
- [Utilities When Inflation Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-utilities-when-inflation-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-utilities-when-inflation-rises.md)): Since 1926, U.S. utility stocks (the utilities industry portfolio) returned a median +0.2% in the 12 months after a rise in inflation of at least 2 points.
- [Value Stocks During Deflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-value-stocks-during-deflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-value-stocks-during-deflation.md)): Since 1926, U.S. value stocks (the 20% with the highest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +45.5% in the 12 months after consumer prices starting to fall.
- [Value Stocks During Stagflation?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-value-stocks-during-stagflation/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-value-stocks-during-stagflation.md)): Since 1926, U.S. value stocks (the 20% with the highest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +32.6% in the 12 months after inflation of 4% or more.
- [Value Stocks When Inflation Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-inflation-falls.md)): Since 1926, U.S. value stocks (the 20% with the highest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +24.1% in the 12 months after a fall in inflation of at least.
- [Value Stocks When Inflation Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-inflation-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/inflation-and-deflation/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-inflation-rises.md)): Since 1926, U.S. value stocks (the 20% with the highest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +4.6% in the 12 months after a rise in inflation of at least 2.
- [Interest Rate Scenarios: What Happens](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy.md)): Explore how changes in interest rates and Fed policy typically affect stocks, bonds, real estate and other assets. Scenario guides with mechanisms.
- [Bank Reserves During Quantitative Easing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-reserves-during-quantitative-easing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-reserves-during-quantitative-easing.md)): Bank reserves rise during quantitative easing, because the central bank pays for the securities it buys by crediting the accounts that banks hold with it.
- [Bank Reserves During Quantitative Tightening?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-reserves-during-quantitative-tightening/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-reserves-during-quantitative-tightening.md)): Bank reserves tend to fall during quantitative tightening, because bonds that mature without being replaced remove the cash that had been created when they.
- [Bank Stocks When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Since 1926, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +19.8% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points in the 10-year.
- [Bank Stocks When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Since 1926, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +5.3% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points in the 10-year yield.
- [Bank Stocks When the Fed Cuts Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-the-fed-cuts-rates.md)): Since 1990, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +21.2% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point in the 3-month.
- [Bank Stocks When the Fed Pauses Rate Changes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes.md)): Since 1991, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +17.8% in the 12 months after a pause in short-term rates after a move.
- [Bank Stocks When the Fed Raises Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-the-fed-raises-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-the-fed-raises-rates.md)): Since 1990, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +10.5% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point in the 3-month.
- [Bank Stocks When the Yield Curve Flattens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-flattens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-flattens.md)): Since 1991, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +8.2% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points in the gap.
- [Bank Stocks When the Yield Curve Inverts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-inverts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-inverts.md)): Since 1990, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median -0.3% in the 12 months after the 10-year Treasury yield falling below.
- [Bank Stocks When the Yield Curve Steepens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-steepens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-steepens.md)): Since 1991, U.S. bank stocks (the banking industry portfolio) returned a median +1.0% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points in the gap.
- [Bitcoin During Quantitative Easing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-quantitative-easing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-quantitative-easing.md)): Bitcoin has tended to rise during periods of quantitative easing in the short history available, because abundant liquidity and low yields have coincided.
- [Bitcoin During Quantitative Tightening?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-quantitative-tightening/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bitcoin-during-quantitative-tightening.md)): Bitcoin has tended to weaken during quantitative tightening in the short record available, because shrinking liquidity and higher yields have coincided.
- [Bitcoin When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Since 2010, bitcoin (the month-end price in dollars) changed by a median +699.5% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points in the 10-year yield.
- [Bitcoin When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Since 2010, bitcoin (the month-end price in dollars) changed by a median +57.7% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points in the 10-year yield.
- [Bitcoin When the Fed Cuts Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-the-fed-cuts-rates.md)): Since 2010, bitcoin (the month-end price in dollars) changed by a median +403.9% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point in the 3-month Treasury.
- [Bitcoin When the Fed Pauses Rate Changes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes.md)): Since 2010, bitcoin (the month-end price in dollars) changed by a median +121.2% in the 12 months after a pause in short-term rates after a move of at least 1.
- [Bitcoin When the Fed Raises Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-the-fed-raises-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bitcoin-when-the-fed-raises-rates.md)): Since 2010, bitcoin (the month-end price in dollars) changed by a median +57.7% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point in the 3-month Treasury yield.
- [Bond ETFs When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Bond ETFs usually rise in price when interest rates fall, because the value of existing bonds goes up as yields decline.
- [Bond ETFs When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bond-etfs-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Bond ETFs usually fall in price when interest rates rise, because existing bonds lose value as yields climb, and funds with longer durations fall more.
- [Bond Funds When the Yield Curve Flattens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bond-funds-when-the-yield-curve-flattens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bond-funds-when-the-yield-curve-flattens.md)): Bond funds are affected by a flattening yield curve according to their maturity: funds holding long bonds gain if long yields fall.
- [Bond Funds When the Yield Curve Inverts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bond-funds-when-the-yield-curve-inverts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bond-funds-when-the-yield-curve-inverts.md)): Bond funds are shaped by an inverted yield curve through their duration: short-term funds earn more income than long-term funds.
- [Bond Funds When the Yield Curve Steepens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bond-funds-when-the-yield-curve-steepens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bond-funds-when-the-yield-curve-steepens.md)): Bond funds respond to a steepening yield curve according to why it steepens: long-term funds lose when long yields rise.
- [Bonds When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bonds-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bonds-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): When interest rates fall, existing bond prices typically rise due to the inverse price-yield relationship. Learn the transmission mechanism.
- [Bonds When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bonds-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bonds-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): When interest rates rise, existing bond prices fall. Learn how duration amplifies this relationship, why some bonds fall more than others.
- [Bonds When the Fed Cuts Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bonds-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bonds-when-the-fed-cuts-rates.md)): Since 1990, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +4.9% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point in the 3-month.
- [Bonds When the Fed Pauses Rate Changes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bonds-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bonds-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes.md)): Since 1991, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +1.9% in the 12 months after a pause in short-term rates after a move.
- [Bonds When the Fed Raises Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bonds-when-the-fed-raises-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-bonds-when-the-fed-raises-rates.md)): Since 1990, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +7.5% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point in the 3-month.
- [CDs When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-cds-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-cds-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): New certificates of deposit pay less when interest rates fall, while existing CDs keep their locked-in rate.
- [CDs When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-cds-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-cds-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): New certificates of deposit pay more when interest rates rise, but existing CDs keep their lower locked-in rate, so a saver who bought before the rise earns.
- [Corporate Bonds When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Corporate bond prices usually rise when interest rates fall, but the gain can be reduced if rates are falling because the economy is weakening and credit.
- [Corporate Bonds When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-corporate-bonds-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Corporate bond prices usually fall when interest rates rise, with longer-maturity bonds losing more, although narrowing credit spreads can cushion the loss if.
- [Credit Markets When the Yield Curve Flattens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-credit-markets-when-the-yield-curve-flattens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-credit-markets-when-the-yield-curve-flattens.md)): Credit markets tend to become less generous when the yield curve flattens, because a narrower gap between long and short rates reduces bank lending margins.
- [Credit Markets When the Yield Curve Inverts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-credit-markets-when-the-yield-curve-inverts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-credit-markets-when-the-yield-curve-inverts.md)): Credit markets tend to tighten when the yield curve inverts, because banks earn less from lending long and borrowing short.
- [Credit Markets When the Yield Curve Steepens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-credit-markets-when-the-yield-curve-steepens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-credit-markets-when-the-yield-curve-steepens.md)): Credit markets tend to ease when the yield curve steepens through lower short rates, because bank lending becomes more profitable.
- [Credit Spreads During Quantitative Easing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-credit-spreads-during-quantitative-easing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-credit-spreads-during-quantitative-easing.md)): Credit spreads have tended to narrow during quantitative easing, because central bank purchases lower yields and push investors toward riskier bonds in search.
- [Credit Spreads During Quantitative Tightening?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-credit-spreads-during-quantitative-tightening/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-credit-spreads-during-quantitative-tightening.md)): Credit spreads have tended to widen modestly during quantitative tightening, because a shrinking central bank balance sheet reduces liquidity and the demand.
- [Cyclical Stocks When the Yield Curve Flattens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-flattens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-flattens.md)): Since 1991, U.S. cyclical stocks (an equal-weighted blend of five cyclical industry groups) returned a median +8.3% in the 12 months after a fall of at least.
- [Cyclical Stocks When the Yield Curve Inverts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-inverts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-inverts.md)): Since 1990, U.S. cyclical stocks (an equal-weighted blend of five cyclical industry groups) returned a median +12.3% in the 12 months after the 10-year.
- [Cyclical Stocks When the Yield Curve Steepens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-steepens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-steepens.md)): Since 1991, U.S. cyclical stocks (an equal-weighted blend of five cyclical industry groups) returned a median -2.8% in the 12 months after a rise of at least.
- [Dividend Stocks When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Since 1927, U.S. dividend stocks (the 20% with the highest dividend yields) returned a median +16.1% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points.
- [Dividend Stocks When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Since 1927, U.S. dividend stocks (the 20% with the highest dividend yields) returned a median +10.6% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points.
- [Financial Stocks When the Yield Curve Flattens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-financial-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-flattens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-financial-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-flattens.md)): Financial stocks, banks in particular, have often underperformed when the yield curve flattens, because a narrower gap between long and short rates squeezes.
- [Financial Stocks When the Yield Curve Inverts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-financial-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-inverts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-financial-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-inverts.md)): Financial stocks have often struggled when the yield curve inverts, because banks pay more for funding than they earn on long-term assets and the inversion has.
- [Financial Stocks When the Yield Curve Steepens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-financial-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-steepens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-financial-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-steepens.md)): Financial stocks have tended to benefit when the yield curve steepens through lower short rates and an improving outlook.
- [Gold During Quantitative Easing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-gold-during-quantitative-easing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-gold-during-quantitative-easing.md)): Gold has tended to rise during quantitative easing, because lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
- [Gold During Quantitative Tightening?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-gold-during-quantitative-tightening/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-gold-during-quantitative-tightening.md)): Gold has tended to face headwinds during quantitative tightening, because higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding it.
- [Gold When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-gold-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-gold-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Since 1971, gold (the World Bank monthly average price in dollars) changed by a median +7.9% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points.
- [Gold When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-gold-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-gold-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Since 1971, gold (the World Bank monthly average price in dollars) changed by a median -2.7% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points.
- [Gold When the Fed Cuts Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-gold-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-gold-when-the-fed-cuts-rates.md)): Since 1990, gold (the World Bank monthly average price in dollars) changed by a median +10.4% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point in the 3-month.
- [Gold When the Fed Pauses Rate Changes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-gold-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-gold-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes.md)): Since 1991, gold (the World Bank monthly average price in dollars) changed by a median +16.4% in the 12 months after a pause in short-term rates after a move.
- [Gold When the Fed Raises Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-gold-when-the-fed-raises-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-gold-when-the-fed-raises-rates.md)): Since 1990, gold (the World Bank monthly average price in dollars) changed by a median +3.4% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point in the 3-month.
- [Growth Stocks When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Since 1926, U.S. growth stocks (the 20% with the lowest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +23.1% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points.
- [Growth Stocks When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Since 1926, U.S. growth stocks (the 20% with the lowest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +15.7% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points.
- [Growth Stocks When the Fed Cuts Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-the-fed-cuts-rates.md)): Since 1990, U.S. growth stocks (the 20% with the lowest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +24.4% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point.
- [Growth Stocks When the Fed Pauses Rate Changes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes.md)): Since 1991, U.S. growth stocks (the 20% with the lowest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +17.6% in the 12 months after a pause in short-term rates.
- [Growth Stocks When the Fed Raises Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-the-fed-raises-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-the-fed-raises-rates.md)): Since 1990, U.S. growth stocks (the 20% with the lowest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +14.6% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point.
- [Growth Stocks When Treasury Yields Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-treasury-yields-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-treasury-yields-rise.md)): Growth stocks usually fall or lag when Treasury yields rise quickly, because their earnings are expected far in the future and a higher discount rate reduces.
- [High-Yield Bonds When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): High-yield bonds respond less to falling interest rates than government bonds do, and the result depends on why rates fall: lower inflation can help them.
- [High-Yield Bonds When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-high-yield-bonds-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): High-yield bonds usually hold up better than government bonds when interest rates rise, because their shorter durations and higher coupons buffer the price.
- [Home Prices When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-home-prices-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-home-prices-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Since 1991, U.S. house prices (the FHFA purchase-only price index) changed by a median +6.4% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points.
- [Home Prices When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-home-prices-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-home-prices-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Since 1991, U.S. house prices (the FHFA purchase-only price index) changed by a median +3.0% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points.
- [Housing Market When the Fed Cuts Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-the-fed-cuts-rates.md)): Since 1991, U.S. house prices (the FHFA purchase-only price index) changed by a median +6.3% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point in the 3-month.
- [Housing Market When the Fed Pauses Rate Changes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes.md)): Since 1991, U.S. house prices (the FHFA purchase-only price index) changed by a median +3.8% in the 12 months after a pause in short-term rates after a move.
- [Housing Market When the Fed Raises Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-the-fed-raises-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-the-fed-raises-rates.md)): Since 1991, U.S. house prices (the FHFA purchase-only price index) changed by a median +5.1% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point in the 3-month.
- [Market Liquidity During Quantitative Easing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-market-liquidity-during-quantitative-easing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-market-liquidity-during-quantitative-easing.md)): Market liquidity tends to improve during quantitative easing, because central bank purchases add reserves and reduce the supply of securities that investors.
- [Market Liquidity During Quantitative Tightening?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-market-liquidity-during-quantitative-tightening/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-market-liquidity-during-quantitative-tightening.md)): Market liquidity tends to thin during quantitative tightening, because shrinking reserves and a larger supply of securities held by private investors make.
- [Money-Market Funds When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-money-market-funds-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-money-market-funds-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Money market fund yields fall soon after interest rates fall, because the funds hold very short-term securities that mature and are reinvested at the new lower.
- [Money-Market Funds When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-money-market-funds-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-money-market-funds-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Money market fund yields rise soon after interest rates rise, because the funds hold very short-term securities that are quickly reinvested at higher rates.
- [Money-Market Yields When the Fed Cuts Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-money-market-yields-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-money-market-yields-when-the-fed-cuts-rates.md)): Money market yields fall quickly when the Federal Reserve cuts rates, because the funds invest in very short-term securities whose yields track the policy rate.
- [Money-Market Yields When the Fed Pauses Rate Changes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-money-market-yields-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-money-market-yields-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes.md)): Money market yields tend to stay stable when the Federal Reserve pauses, because the funds track the policy rate, though yields drift as the market begins.
- [Money-Market Yields When the Fed Raises Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-money-market-yields-when-the-fed-raises-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-money-market-yields-when-the-fed-raises-rates.md)): Money market yields rise quickly when the Federal Reserve raises rates, because the funds invest in short-term securities that reprice at the higher policy.
- [Mortgage Rates When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-mortgage-rates-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-mortgage-rates-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Mortgage rates usually fall when interest rates fall, but they follow longer-term yields, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield.
- [Mortgage Rates When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-mortgage-rates-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-mortgage-rates-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Mortgage rates usually rise when interest rates rise, but they follow longer-term yields, especially the 10-year Treasury yield.
- [Mortgage Rates When the Fed Cuts Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-mortgage-rates-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-mortgage-rates-when-the-fed-cuts-rates.md)): Mortgage rates do not always fall when the Federal Reserve cuts rates, because they track long-term Treasury yields and mortgage spreads.
- [Mortgage Rates When the Fed Pauses Rate Changes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-mortgage-rates-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-mortgage-rates-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes.md)): Mortgage rates are not fixed by a Federal Reserve pause, because they follow long-term Treasury yields, which move with inflation expectations.
- [Mortgage Rates When the Fed Raises Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-mortgage-rates-when-the-fed-raises-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-mortgage-rates-when-the-fed-raises-rates.md)): Mortgage rates often rise when the Federal Reserve raises rates, but the link runs through long-term Treasury yields, which can move before the hike or stay.
- [Mortgage Rates When the Yield Curve Flattens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-mortgage-rates-when-the-yield-curve-flattens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-mortgage-rates-when-the-yield-curve-flattens.md)): Mortgage rates are shaped by a flattening yield curve through the long end: if long yields fall as the curve flattens, mortgage rates drop.
- [Mortgage Rates When the Yield Curve Inverts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-mortgage-rates-when-the-yield-curve-inverts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-mortgage-rates-when-the-yield-curve-inverts.md)): Mortgage rates follow long-term yields, so an inverted yield curve, in which short-term yields exceed long-term yields.
- [Mortgage Rates When the Yield Curve Steepens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-mortgage-rates-when-the-yield-curve-steepens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-mortgage-rates-when-the-yield-curve-steepens.md)): Mortgage rates tend to rise when the yield curve steepens because long yields climb, while fixed rates change little when the steepening comes from lower.
- [Municipal Bonds When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-municipal-bonds-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-municipal-bonds-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Municipal bond prices usually rise when interest rates fall, as other bonds do, with longer-maturity bonds gaining more, though callable bonds limit the upside.
- [Municipal Bonds When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-municipal-bonds-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-municipal-bonds-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Municipal bond prices usually fall when interest rates rise, with longer-maturity bonds losing more.
- [Preferred Stocks When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-preferred-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-preferred-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Preferred stocks usually rise when interest rates fall, because their fixed dividends become more attractive, though issuers can call them and credit worries.
- [Preferred Stocks When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-preferred-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-preferred-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Preferred stocks usually fall when interest rates rise, because their fixed dividends become less attractive compared with new securities.
- [Real Estate When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-real-estate-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-real-estate-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): How rising interest rates typically affect home prices, mortgage rates, housing demand, REITs and commercial real estate.
- [REITs During Quantitative Easing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-reits-during-quantitative-easing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-reits-during-quantitative-easing.md)): REITs have tended to benefit from quantitative easing, because lower long-term yields reduce borrowing costs and raise the value of steady real estate income.
- [REITs During Quantitative Tightening?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-reits-during-quantitative-tightening/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-reits-during-quantitative-tightening.md)): REITs have tended to face pressure during quantitative tightening, because higher long-term yields raise borrowing costs and make the income from property less.
- [REITs When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-reits-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-reits-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Since 1971, U.S. equity REITs (the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs total return) returned a median +22.0% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points.
- [REITs When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-reits-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-reits-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Since 1971, U.S. equity REITs (the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs total return) returned a median +12.6% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points.
- [REITs When the Fed Cuts Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-reits-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-reits-when-the-fed-cuts-rates.md)): Since 1990, U.S. equity REITs (the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs total return) returned a median +9.6% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point.
- [REITs When the Fed Pauses Rate Changes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-reits-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-reits-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes.md)): Since 1991, U.S. equity REITs (the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs total return) returned a median +4.9% in the 12 months after a pause in short-term rates after.
- [REITs When the Fed Raises Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-reits-when-the-fed-raises-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-reits-when-the-fed-raises-rates.md)): Since 1990, U.S. equity REITs (the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs total return) returned a median +8.8% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point.
- [Savings Account Rates When the Fed Cuts Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-savings-account-rates-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-savings-account-rates-when-the-fed-cuts-rates.md)): Savings account rates usually fall after the Federal Reserve cuts rates, because banks lower what they pay on deposits, typically within weeks.
- [Savings Account Rates When the Fed Pauses Rate Changes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-savings-account-rates-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-savings-account-rates-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes.md)): Savings account rates usually stay about the same when the Federal Reserve pauses, though banks may trim promotional offers if they expect cuts or raise them.
- [Savings Account Rates When the Fed Raises Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-savings-account-rates-when-the-fed-raises-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-savings-account-rates-when-the-fed-raises-rates.md)): Savings account rates usually rise after the Federal Reserve raises rates, but banks often pass along only part of the increase and do so slowly.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Since 1926, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +22.3% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Since 1926, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +8.4% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When the Fed Cuts Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-the-fed-cuts-rates.md)): Since 1990, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +19.6% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point in the 3-month.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When the Fed Pauses Rate Changes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes.md)): Since 1991, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +11.5% in the 12 months after a pause in short-term rates after a move.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When the Fed Raises Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-the-fed-raises-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-the-fed-raises-rates.md)): Since 1990, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +5.3% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point in the 3-month.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When the Yield Curve Flattens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-flattens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-flattens.md)): Since 1991, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +12.7% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points in the gap.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When the Yield Curve Inverts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-inverts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-inverts.md)): Since 1990, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +1.2% in the 12 months after the 10-year Treasury yield falling below.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When the Yield Curve Steepens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-steepens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-the-yield-curve-steepens.md)): Since 1991, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +6.1% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points in the gap.
- [Stocks During Quantitative Easing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-stocks-during-quantitative-easing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-stocks-during-quantitative-easing.md)): Stocks have tended to rise during quantitative easing, because lower yields reduce discount rates and push investors toward equities.
- [Stocks During Quantitative Tightening?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-stocks-during-quantitative-tightening/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-stocks-during-quantitative-tightening.md)): Stocks have been mixed during quantitative tightening, because shrinking central bank holdings and higher yields tighten financial conditions.
- [Stocks When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Since 1871, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +23.0% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points in the 10-year.
- [Stocks When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Rising interest rates raise the discount rate on future earnings, often pressuring stock valuations - especially for growth stocks.
- [Stocks When the Fed Cuts Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-stocks-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-stocks-when-the-fed-cuts-rates.md)): Fed rate cuts can support stock valuations by lowering the discount rate - but the reason for the cut matters enormously.
- [Stocks When the Fed Pauses Rate Changes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-stocks-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-stocks-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes.md)): Since 1991, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +25.0% in the 12 months after a pause in short-term rates after a move.
- [Stocks When the Fed Raises Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-stocks-when-the-fed-raises-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-stocks-when-the-fed-raises-rates.md)): Since 1990, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +10.5% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point in the 3-month.
- [Technology Stocks When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-technology-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-technology-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Since 1926, U.S. high-technology stocks (business equipment, computers, software and electronics) returned a median +23.7% in the 12 months after a fall.
- [Technology Stocks When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-technology-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-technology-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Since 1926, U.S. high-technology stocks (business equipment, computers, software and electronics) returned a median +20.1% in the 12 months after a rise.
- [Treasury Bonds When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Since 1871, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +3.7% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points in the 10-year.
- [Treasury Bonds When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Since 1871, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +8.7% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points in the 10-year.
- [Treasury Bonds When the Yield Curve Flattens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-when-the-yield-curve-flattens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-when-the-yield-curve-flattens.md)): Since 1991, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +3.7% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points in the gap.
- [Treasury Bonds When the Yield Curve Inverts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-when-the-yield-curve-inverts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-when-the-yield-curve-inverts.md)): Since 1990, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +9.5% in the 12 months after the 10-year Treasury yield falling below.
- [Treasury Bonds When the Yield Curve Steepens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-when-the-yield-curve-steepens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-bonds-when-the-yield-curve-steepens.md)): Since 1991, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (coupon income included) returned a median +10.3% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points in the gap.
- [Treasury Yields During Quantitative Easing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-during-quantitative-easing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-during-quantitative-easing.md)): Treasury yields tend to fall during quantitative easing, because central bank purchases reduce the supply of bonds available to investors and lower.
- [Treasury Yields During Quantitative Tightening?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-during-quantitative-tightening/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-during-quantitative-tightening.md)): Treasury yields tend to rise somewhat during quantitative tightening, because the central bank stops absorbing new bonds and private investors must hold more.
- [Treasury Yields When the Fed Cuts Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-the-fed-cuts-rates.md)): Since 1990, the 10-year Treasury yield changed by a median -0.22 points in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1 point in the 3-month Treasury yield within.
- [Treasury Yields When the Fed Pauses Rate Changes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes.md)): Since 1991, the 10-year Treasury yield changed by a median +0.37 points in the 12 months after a pause in short-term rates after a move of at least 1 point.
- [Treasury Yields When the Fed Raises Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-the-fed-raises-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-treasury-yields-when-the-fed-raises-rates.md)): Since 1990, the 10-year Treasury yield changed by a median -0.10 points in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1 point in the 3-month Treasury yield within.
- [U.S. Dollar During Quantitative Easing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-during-quantitative-easing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-during-quantitative-easing.md)): The U.S. dollar has tended to weaken during quantitative easing when other central banks are not easing as much, because lower U.S. yields and a larger money.
- [U.S. Dollar During Quantitative Tightening?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-during-quantitative-tightening/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-during-quantitative-tightening.md)): The U.S. dollar has tended to strengthen during quantitative tightening when U.S. rates are higher than those abroad, because higher yields attract capital.
- [U.S. Dollar When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Since 1964, the U.S. dollar (the BIS trade-weighted index against 27 major partners) changed by a median -1.3% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5.
- [U.S. Dollar When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Since 1964, the U.S. dollar (the BIS trade-weighted index against 27 major partners) changed by a median -1.8% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5.
- [U.S. Dollar When the Fed Cuts Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-the-fed-cuts-rates.md)): Since 1990, the U.S. dollar (the BIS trade-weighted index against 27 major partners) changed by a median -0.6% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.
- [U.S. Dollar When the Fed Pauses Rate Changes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-the-fed-pauses-rate-changes.md)): Since 1991, the U.S. dollar (the BIS trade-weighted index against 27 major partners) changed by a median +0.1% in the 12 months after a pause in short-term.
- [U.S. Dollar When the Fed Raises Rates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-the-fed-raises-rates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-the-fed-raises-rates.md)): Since 1990, the U.S. dollar (the BIS trade-weighted index against 27 major partners) changed by a median +3.2% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.
- [U.S. Dollar When the Yield Curve Flattens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-the-yield-curve-flattens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-the-yield-curve-flattens.md)): Since 1991, the U.S. dollar (the BIS trade-weighted index against 27 major partners) changed by a median +3.6% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5.
- [U.S. Dollar When the Yield Curve Inverts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-the-yield-curve-inverts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-the-yield-curve-inverts.md)): Since 1990, the U.S. dollar (the BIS trade-weighted index against 27 major partners) changed by a median -0.3% in the 12 months after the 10-year Treasury.
- [U.S. Dollar When the Yield Curve Steepens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-the-yield-curve-steepens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-u-s-dollar-when-the-yield-curve-steepens.md)): Since 1991, the U.S. dollar (the BIS trade-weighted index against 27 major partners) changed by a median -2.8% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5.
- [Utilities When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-utilities-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-utilities-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Since 1926, U.S. utility stocks (the utilities industry portfolio) returned a median +12.8% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points in the 10-year.
- [Utilities When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-utilities-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-utilities-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Since 1926, U.S. utility stocks (the utilities industry portfolio) returned a median +13.7% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points in the 10-year.
- [Value Stocks When Interest Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-interest-rates-fall.md)): Since 1926, U.S. value stocks (the 20% with the highest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +23.8% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 1.5 points.
- [Value Stocks When Interest Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise.md)): Since 1926, U.S. value stocks (the 20% with the highest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +22.6% in the 12 months after a rise of at least 1.5 points.
- [When the Yield Curve Inverts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-when-the-yield-curve-inverts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/interest-rates-and-monetary-policy/what-happens-when-the-yield-curve-inverts.md)): What a yield curve inversion typically signals and how it has historically preceded recessions. Mechanism, false signals, timing uncertainty.
- [Market Crash & Volatility Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/market-events-and-volatility/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/market-events-and-volatility.md)): Scenario guides for market crashes, VIX spikes, bear markets, and sudden risk-off episodes. Mechanisms, historical context, & what investors typically consider.
- [What Happens During a Stock Market Crash?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/market-events-and-volatility/what-happens-during-a-stock-market-crash/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/market-events-and-volatility/what-happens-during-a-stock-market-crash.md)): Stock market crashes typically involve rapid price declines, forced selling, and a flight to safety. Learn the mechanics, phases, asset-class responses.
- [What Happens to Gold During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/market-events-and-volatility/what-happens-to-gold-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/market-events-and-volatility/what-happens-to-gold-during-a-recession.md)): Gold often performs well during recessions due to falling real interest rates and safe-haven demand, but outcomes vary by cause and depth of the downturn.
- [What Happens When Volatility Spikes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/market-events-and-volatility/what-happens-when-volatility-spikes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/market-events-and-volatility/what-happens-when-volatility-spikes.md)): When volatility spikes, stocks typically fall, options become expensive, leveraged products face forced rebalancing, and safe havens attract flows.
- [Multi-Variable Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations.md)): What happens to portfolios when multiple conditions shift simultaneously: rising rates plus slowing growth, dollar strength plus commodity weakness.
- [Portfolio When Bitcoin Rises as Liquidity Contracts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-bitcoin-rises-as-liquidity-contracts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-bitcoin-rises-as-liquidity-contracts.md)): A portfolio that holds bitcoin is in an unusual position when bitcoin rises while liquidity contracts, because that goes against the usual pattern.
- [Portfolio When Credit Spreads Widen but Stocks Keep Rising?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-credit-spreads-widen-but-stocks-keep-rising/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-credit-spreads-widen-but-stocks-keep-rising.md)): A balanced portfolio usually keeps gaining from its stock holdings when credit spreads widen but stocks keep rising, but the combination is a warning sign.
- [Portfolio When Earnings Fall but Stocks Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-earnings-fall-but-stocks-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-earnings-fall-but-stocks-rise.md)): A portfolio usually gains from its stocks when earnings fall but stocks rise, but the gain comes from higher valuations, not higher profits.
- [Portfolio When Earnings Rise but Valuations Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-earnings-rise-but-valuations-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-earnings-rise-but-valuations-fall.md)): A portfolio's stock returns are usually modest or flat when earnings rise but valuations fall, because the higher profits are offset by a lower price paid.
- [Portfolio When Gold Rises with the U.S. Dollar?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-gold-rises-with-the-u-s-dollar/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-gold-rises-with-the-u-s-dollar.md)): A portfolio that holds gold benefits when gold rises with the dollar, which is unusual because the two often move in opposite directions.
- [Portfolio When Growth Accelerates but Inflation Also Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-growth-accelerates-but-inflation-also-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-growth-accelerates-but-inflation-also-rises.md)): A balanced portfolio usually sees stocks gain and bonds struggle when growth accelerates but inflation also rises, because stronger earnings support equities.
- [Portfolio When Growth Slows](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-growth-slows-and-inflation-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-growth-slows-and-inflation-falls.md)): A balanced portfolio usually benefits from its bonds when growth slows and inflation falls, because yields tend to decline.
- [Portfolio When Housing Weakens but Homebuilder Stocks Rally?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-housing-weakens-but-homebuilder-stocks-rally/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-housing-weakens-but-homebuilder-stocks-rally.md)): A portfolio holding homebuilders can gain when housing weakens but their stocks rally, because the market often prices ahead of the data.
- [Portfolio When Inflation Falls](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-inflation-falls-and-growth-reaccelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-inflation-falls-and-growth-reaccelerates.md)): A balanced portfolio usually does well when inflation falls and growth reaccelerates, a combination often described as a soft landing.
- [Portfolio When Inflation Falls but Unemployment Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-inflation-falls-but-unemployment-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-inflation-falls-but-unemployment-rises.md)): A balanced portfolio usually gains from its bonds when inflation falls but unemployment rises, because weaker labor markets and lower inflation lead to lower.
- [Portfolio When Inflation Is Sticky](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-inflation-is-sticky-and-growth-remains-strong/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-inflation-is-sticky-and-growth-remains-strong.md)): A balanced portfolio usually struggles in its bond holdings when inflation is sticky and growth remains strong, because rates stay higher for longer.
- [Portfolio When Inflation Rises During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-inflation-rises-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-inflation-rises-during-a-recession.md)): A balanced portfolio usually suffers when inflation rises during a recession, a stagflation-like mix, because stocks fall with earnings while bonds lose value.
- [Portfolio When Interest Rates Fall Because a Recession Starts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-interest-rates-fall-because-a-recession-starts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-interest-rates-fall-because-a-recession-starts.md)): A balanced portfolio usually gains from high-quality bonds when interest rates fall because a recession starts, while stocks often fall because earnings.
- [Portfolio When Long Bonds Fall as the Fed Cuts?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-long-bonds-fall-as-the-fed-cuts/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-long-bonds-fall-as-the-fed-cuts.md)): A portfolio with long-term bonds can lose value when long bonds fall even as the Federal Reserve cuts rates, because long yields are driven by inflation.
- [Portfolio When Mortgage Rates Fall but Home Sales Stay Weak?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-mortgage-rates-fall-but-home-sales-stay-weak/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-mortgage-rates-fall-but-home-sales-stay-weak.md)): A portfolio with housing exposure should not assume a recovery in home sales when mortgage rates fall but sales stay weak, because affordability, inventory.
- [Portfolio When Oil Falls but Energy Stocks Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-oil-falls-but-energy-stocks-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-oil-falls-but-energy-stocks-rise.md)): A portfolio with energy stocks can see gains when oil falls but energy stocks rally, because the stocks respond to cash flow.
- [Portfolio When Oil Rises While Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-oil-rises-while-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-oil-rises-while-growth-slows.md)): A balanced portfolio usually struggles when oil rises while growth slows, because higher energy costs squeeze consumers and companies at the same time.
- [Portfolio When Rates Fall](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-rates-fall-and-the-dollar-weakens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-rates-fall-and-the-dollar-weakens.md)): A diversified portfolio usually benefits when rates fall and the dollar weakens, because bonds gain, equities benefit from easier conditions.
- [Portfolio When Rates Rise but Bank Stocks Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-rates-rise-but-bank-stocks-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-rates-rise-but-bank-stocks-fall.md)): A portfolio with bank stocks can lose when rates rise but bank stocks fall, contrary to the idea that higher rates always help banks, because funding costs.
- [Portfolio When Small Caps Rally as Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-small-caps-rally-as-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-small-caps-rally-as-growth-slows.md)): A portfolio can gain from small caps when they rally even as growth slows, because small caps often lead in early recoveries and react to expectations of lower.
- [Portfolio When Stocks Fall While Bond Yields Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-stocks-fall-while-bond-yields-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-stocks-fall-while-bond-yields-rise.md)): A balanced portfolio usually suffers on both sides when stocks fall while bond yields rise, because bonds lose their role as a cushion and the portfolio's.
- [Portfolio When Stocks Rally but Market Breadth Narrows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-stocks-rally-but-market-breadth-narrows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-stocks-rally-but-market-breadth-narrows.md)): A portfolio that tracks a cap-weighted index usually keeps gaining when stocks rally while market breadth narrows, but it becomes dependent on a few large.
- [Portfolio When the Dollar Strengthens](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-the-dollar-strengthens-and-oil-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-the-dollar-strengthens-and-oil-falls.md)): A diversified portfolio usually sees commodities and emerging-market assets under pressure when the dollar strengthens and oil falls.
- [Portfolio When the Dollar Weakens](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-the-dollar-weakens-and-emerging-markets-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-the-dollar-weakens-and-emerging-markets-fall.md)): A portfolio with emerging-market holdings can lose even when the dollar weakens if emerging markets fall for their own reasons.
- [Portfolio When the Fed Cuts Rates but Stocks Keep Falling?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-the-fed-cuts-rates-but-stocks-keep-falling/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-the-fed-cuts-rates-but-stocks-keep-falling.md)): A portfolio usually benefits from its bond holdings when the Federal Reserve cuts rates but stocks keep falling, because cuts that come in response.
- [Portfolio When the Fed Pauses but Financial Conditions Tighten?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-the-fed-pauses-but-financial-conditions-tighten/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-the-fed-pauses-but-financial-conditions-tighten.md)): A portfolio can face tighter conditions even though the Federal Reserve has paused, because higher long-term yields, a stronger dollar.
- [Portfolio When the Yield Curve Steepens Because Long Yields Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-the-yield-curve-steepens-because-long-yields-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-the-yield-curve-steepens-because-long-yields-rise.md)): A portfolio with long bonds usually loses value when the yield curve steepens because long yields rise.
- [Portfolio When the Yield Curve Steepens Because Short Yields Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-the-yield-curve-steepens-because-short-yields-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-the-yield-curve-steepens-because-short-yields-fall.md)): A portfolio usually benefits when the yield curve steepens because short yields fall, since a bull steepener typically follows rate cuts that support bonds.
- [Portfolio When Treasury Yields Rise with Inflation Falling?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-treasury-yields-rise-with-inflation-falling/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-treasury-yields-rise-with-inflation-falling.md)): A portfolio usually faces a headwind from higher Treasury yields even when inflation is falling, because the rise reflects stronger growth.
- [Portfolio When Volatility Falls but Credit Spreads Widen?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-volatility-falls-but-credit-spreads-widen/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/multi-variable-scenario-combinations/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-volatility-falls-but-credit-spreads-widen.md)): A portfolio faces an inconsistent signal when volatility falls but credit spreads widen, because falling equity volatility suggests calm while wider spreads.
- [Portfolio Construction Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios.md)): What happens to different portfolio constructions when the correlation regime changes, volatility spikes, or a key assumption proves wrong.
- [Portfolio When a Hedge Stops Working?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-a-hedge-stops-working/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-a-hedge-stops-working.md)): A portfolio loses protection when a hedge stops working, because the position that was meant to offset losses no longer moves the way it was expected.
- [Portfolio When a Portfolio Is Rebalanced During a Crash?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-a-portfolio-is-rebalanced-during-a-crash/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-a-portfolio-is-rebalanced-during-a-crash.md)): A portfolio that is rebalanced during a crash buys stocks that have fallen and sells assets that held up, which restores its target risk and can add to returns.
- [Portfolio When an Investor Never Rebalances?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-an-investor-never-rebalances/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-an-investor-never-rebalances.md)): A portfolio that is never rebalanced drifts toward its best-performing assets, which raises risk over time, because a mix that began as 60% stocks can become.
- [Portfolio When Cash Becomes 30% of a Portfolio?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-cash-becomes-30-of-a-portfolio/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-cash-becomes-30-of-a-portfolio.md)): A portfolio that holds 30% in cash is less volatile and has less loss in a downturn, but it gives up long-run growth and can lose purchasing power.
- [Portfolio When Correlations Converge Toward One?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-correlations-converge-toward-one/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-correlations-converge-toward-one.md)): A portfolio loses much of its diversification when correlations converge toward one, because assets that usually move differently begin to fall together.
- [Portfolio When Duration Risk Becomes Concentrated?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-duration-risk-becomes-concentrated/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-duration-risk-becomes-concentrated.md)): A portfolio becomes vulnerable to interest rate moves when duration risk becomes concentrated, because many bonds or funds fall together when rates rise.
- [Portfolio When Home-Country Bias Becomes Extreme?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-home-country-bias-becomes-extreme/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-home-country-bias-becomes-extreme.md)): A portfolio with extreme home-country bias is exposed to a single economy, currency and market, so it does well when the home market leads and suffers when it.
- [Portfolio When One Stock Becomes 25% of a Portfolio?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-one-stock-becomes-25-of-a-portfolio/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-one-stock-becomes-25-of-a-portfolio.md)): A portfolio where one stock becomes 25% depends heavily on that company, so a fall in its price can cause large losses to the whole portfolio.
- [Portfolio When Portfolio Volatility Doubles?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-portfolio-volatility-doubles/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-portfolio-volatility-doubles.md)): A portfolio whose volatility doubles can see losses and swings twice as large, which raises the chance of selling at a low and can sharply change the outcome.
- [Portfolio When Stock-Bond Correlation Turns Positive?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-stock-bond-correlation-turns-positive/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-stock-bond-correlation-turns-positive.md)): A portfolio of stocks and bonds loses its cushion when the stock-bond correlation turns positive, because bonds no longer rise when stocks fall.
- [Portfolio When Stocks](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-stocks-and-bonds-fall-together/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-stocks-and-bonds-fall-together.md)): A balanced portfolio suffers on both sides when stocks and bonds fall together, as in 2022, because inflation and rising rates reduce bond prices at the same.
- [Portfolio When Technology Becomes Half of a Portfolio?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-technology-becomes-half-of-a-portfolio/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/portfolio-construction-scenarios/what-happens-to-portfolio-when-technology-becomes-half-of-a-portfolio.md)): A portfolio where technology becomes half of the holdings depends heavily on one sector, so it can outperform in a technology boom but faces large losses if.
- [Real Estate & REIT Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios.md)): What happens to real estate prices, mortgage rates, and REIT valuations in 64 scenarios covering rate environments, construction cycles.
- [Apartment REITs When Cap Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-apartment-reits-when-cap-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-apartment-reits-when-cap-rates-fall.md)): Apartment REIT prices usually rise when cap rates fall, because a lower capitalization rate means the same rental income is worth more.
- [Apartment REITs When Cap Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-apartment-reits-when-cap-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-apartment-reits-when-cap-rates-rise.md)): Apartment REIT prices usually fall when cap rates rise, because the same rental income is capitalized at a higher rate and is worth less.
- [Apartment REITs When Commercial Real-Estate Defaults Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-apartment-reits-when-commercial-real-estate-defaults-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-apartment-reits-when-commercial-real-estate-defaults-rise.md)): Apartment REITs are usually affected less than office or retail REITs when commercial real estate defaults rise, because rising defaults are concentrated.
- [Apartment REITs When Office Vacancies Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-apartment-reits-when-office-vacancies-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-apartment-reits-when-office-vacancies-rise.md)): Apartment REITs are largely unaffected directly when office vacancies rise, because the two property types have different tenants.
- [Apartment REITs When Rent Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-apartment-reits-when-rent-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-apartment-reits-when-rent-growth-accelerates.md)): Apartment REIT earnings and prices usually improve when rent growth accelerates, because higher rents lift net operating income faster than costs rise.
- [Apartment REITs When Rent Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-apartment-reits-when-rent-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-apartment-reits-when-rent-growth-slows.md)): Apartment REIT earnings and prices usually soften when rent growth slows, because revenue growth falls toward the pace of cost growth and valuations compress.
- [Commercial Real Estate When Cap Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-commercial-real-estate-when-cap-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-commercial-real-estate-when-cap-rates-fall.md)): Commercial real estate values usually rise when cap rates fall, because a lower capitalization rate means each dollar of net operating income supports a higher.
- [Commercial Real Estate When Cap Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-commercial-real-estate-when-cap-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-commercial-real-estate-when-cap-rates-rise.md)): Commercial real estate values usually fall when cap rates rise, because each dollar of net operating income is capitalized at a higher rate and is worth less.
- [Commercial Real Estate When Commercial Real-Estate Defaults Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-commercial-real-estate-when-commercial-real-estate-defaults-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-commercial-real-estate-when-commercial-real-estate-defaults-rise.md)): Commercial real estate values usually fall and lending tightens when defaults rise, because distressed sales set lower comparable prices and lenders become.
- [Commercial Real Estate When Office Vacancies Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-commercial-real-estate-when-office-vacancies-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-commercial-real-estate-when-office-vacancies-rise.md)): Office values usually fall when vacancies rise, and other commercial property types are affected less directly, mainly through weaker sentiment and more.
- [Commercial Real Estate When Rent Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-commercial-real-estate-when-rent-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-commercial-real-estate-when-rent-growth-accelerates.md)): Commercial real estate values usually rise when rent growth accelerates, because growing income increases the amount capitalized into value.
- [Commercial Real Estate When Rent Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-commercial-real-estate-when-rent-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-commercial-real-estate-when-rent-growth-slows.md)): Commercial real estate values usually soften when rent growth slows, because slower income growth lowers expected returns and the prices investors will pay.
- [Data-Center REITs When Cap Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-data-center-reits-when-cap-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-data-center-reits-when-cap-rates-fall.md)): Data center REIT prices usually rise when cap rates fall, because lower required returns raise the value of the long leases and growing demand for capacity.
- [Data-Center REITs When Cap Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-data-center-reits-when-cap-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-data-center-reits-when-cap-rates-rise.md)): Data center REIT prices usually fall when cap rates rise, because higher required returns reduce the value of long-lived income.
- [Data-Center REITs When Commercial Real-Estate Defaults Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-data-center-reits-when-commercial-real-estate-defaults-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-data-center-reits-when-commercial-real-estate-defaults-rise.md)): Data center REITs are usually less affected than office or retail owners when commercial real estate defaults rise, because their tenants are large and demand.
- [Data-Center REITs When Office Vacancies Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-data-center-reits-when-office-vacancies-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-data-center-reits-when-office-vacancies-rise.md)): Data center REITs are mostly unaffected when office vacancies rise, because their demand comes from cloud and AI workloads, not office space.
- [Data-Center REITs When Rent Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-data-center-reits-when-rent-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-data-center-reits-when-rent-growth-accelerates.md)): Data center REIT earnings and prices usually benefit when rent growth accelerates, because tight supply of power and capacity lets operators raise pricing.
- [Data-Center REITs When Rent Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-data-center-reits-when-rent-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-data-center-reits-when-rent-growth-slows.md)): Data center REIT earnings and prices usually soften when rent growth slows, because slower pricing means less growth in leasing income and may signal that new.
- [Homebuilders During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilders-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilders-during-a-recession.md)): Homebuilder stocks usually fall in the run-up to and during a recession, because demand for new homes depends on jobs, confidence and credit, which weaken.
- [Homebuilders When Home Prices Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilders-when-home-prices-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilders-when-home-prices-fall.md)): Homebuilder stocks usually fall when home prices fall, because lower prices squeeze margins, reduce the value of land and inventory.
- [Homebuilders When Home Prices Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilders-when-home-prices-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilders-when-home-prices-rise.md)): Homebuilder profits and stocks usually improve when home prices rise, because higher selling prices expand margins on land and lots bought earlier.
- [Homebuilders When Housing Inventory Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilders-when-housing-inventory-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilders-when-housing-inventory-falls.md)): Homebuilder stocks usually benefit when housing inventory falls, because fewer homes for sale shift buyers toward new construction and give builders pricing.
- [Homebuilders When Housing Inventory Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilders-when-housing-inventory-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilders-when-housing-inventory-rises.md)): Homebuilder stocks usually come under pressure when housing inventory rises, because more homes for sale increases competition and forces builders to use.
- [Homebuilders When Mortgage Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilders-when-mortgage-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilders-when-mortgage-rates-fall.md)): Homebuilder stocks usually rise when mortgage rates fall, because lower financing costs improve affordability and bring more buyers into the market.
- [Homebuilders When Mortgage Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilders-when-mortgage-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilders-when-mortgage-rates-rise.md)): Homebuilder stocks usually fall when mortgage rates rise, because higher financing costs reduce affordability and lead buyers to delay purchases.
- [Housing Market During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-housing-market-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-housing-market-during-a-recession.md)): Since 1991, U.S. house prices (the FHFA purchase-only price index) changed by a median +6.6% in the 12 months after the start of a recession.
- [Housing Market When Home Prices Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-home-prices-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-home-prices-fall.md)): The housing market usually slows when home prices fall, because sales volumes drop as sellers hold back and buyers wait for further declines.
- [Housing Market When Home Prices Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-home-prices-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-home-prices-rise.md)): The housing market usually sees more activity from builders and sellers when home prices rise, but affordability worsens for buyers and can slow sales if.
- [Housing Market When Housing Inventory Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-housing-inventory-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-housing-inventory-falls.md)): Home prices usually rise or hold up when housing inventory falls, because fewer homes for sale give sellers more bargaining power and push buyers to compete.
- [Housing Market When Housing Inventory Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-housing-inventory-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-housing-inventory-rises.md)): Home prices usually flatten or fall when housing inventory rises, because buyers have more choices and sellers have to compete on price.
- [Housing Market When Mortgage Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-mortgage-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-mortgage-rates-fall.md)): The housing market usually becomes more active when mortgage rates fall, because lower payments improve affordability.
- [Housing Market When Mortgage Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-mortgage-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-housing-market-when-mortgage-rates-rise.md)): The housing market usually cools when mortgage rates rise, because higher payments reduce affordability, sales fall and prices rise more slowly or decline.
- [Industrial REITs When Cap Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-industrial-reits-when-cap-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-industrial-reits-when-cap-rates-fall.md)): Industrial REIT prices usually rise when cap rates fall, because warehouse income is capitalized at a lower rate, and demand from e-commerce and logistics has.
- [Industrial REITs When Cap Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-industrial-reits-when-cap-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-industrial-reits-when-cap-rates-rise.md)): Industrial REIT prices usually fall when cap rates rise, because the same rental income is worth less, though strong rent growth can limit the decline.
- [Industrial REITs When Commercial Real-Estate Defaults Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-industrial-reits-when-commercial-real-estate-defaults-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-industrial-reits-when-commercial-real-estate-defaults-rise.md)): Industrial REITs are generally more resilient than office or retail when commercial real estate defaults rise, because warehouse demand is stronger.
- [Industrial REITs When Office Vacancies Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-industrial-reits-when-office-vacancies-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-industrial-reits-when-office-vacancies-rise.md)): Industrial REITs are mostly unaffected when office vacancies rise, because their tenants and drivers differ, although a broad real estate sell-off can lower.
- [Industrial REITs When Rent Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-industrial-reits-when-rent-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-industrial-reits-when-rent-growth-accelerates.md)): Industrial REIT earnings and prices usually benefit when rent growth accelerates, because leases reset to higher market rents and net operating income rises.
- [Industrial REITs When Rent Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-industrial-reits-when-rent-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-industrial-reits-when-rent-growth-slows.md)): Industrial REIT earnings and prices usually soften when rent growth slows, because lease renewals bring smaller increases and lower growth reduces the value.
- [Mortgage REITs During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-mortgage-reits-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-mortgage-reits-during-a-recession.md)): Since 1971, U.S. mortgage REITs (the FTSE Nareit Mortgage REITs total return) returned a median +4.5% in the 12 months after the start of a recession.
- [Mortgage REITs When Home Prices Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-mortgage-reits-when-home-prices-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-mortgage-reits-when-home-prices-fall.md)): Mortgage REITs that hold agency mortgage securities are mostly insulated when home prices fall, while those that hold credit-sensitive loans can lose value.
- [Mortgage REITs When Home Prices Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-mortgage-reits-when-home-prices-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-mortgage-reits-when-home-prices-rise.md)): Mortgage REITs that hold credit-sensitive loans usually benefit when home prices rise, because borrower equity grows and losses fall.
- [Mortgage REITs When Housing Inventory Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-mortgage-reits-when-housing-inventory-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-mortgage-reits-when-housing-inventory-falls.md)): Mortgage REITs are only indirectly affected when housing inventory falls, because lower inventory tends to support home prices.
- [Mortgage REITs When Housing Inventory Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-mortgage-reits-when-housing-inventory-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-mortgage-reits-when-housing-inventory-rises.md)): Mortgage REITs are only indirectly affected when housing inventory rises, because higher inventory can soften prices and raise credit risk for non-agency.
- [Mortgage REITs When Mortgage Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-mortgage-reits-when-mortgage-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-mortgage-reits-when-mortgage-rates-fall.md)): Mortgage REITs usually see their holdings rise in value when mortgage rates fall, but faster prepayments can reduce income.
- [Mortgage REITs When Mortgage Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-mortgage-reits-when-mortgage-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-mortgage-reits-when-mortgage-rates-rise.md)): Mortgage REITs usually lose book value when mortgage rates rise, because the value of mortgage securities falls and their effective life extends.
- [Office REITs When Cap Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-office-reits-when-cap-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-office-reits-when-cap-rates-fall.md)): Office REIT prices usually rise when cap rates fall, but the gain is limited by high vacancy and the need for capital spending on aging buildings.
- [Office REITs When Cap Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-office-reits-when-cap-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-office-reits-when-cap-rates-rise.md)): Office REIT prices usually fall when cap rates rise, and the decline can be sharp because office buildings face weak demand.
- [Office REITs When Commercial Real-Estate Defaults Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-office-reits-when-commercial-real-estate-defaults-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-office-reits-when-commercial-real-estate-defaults-rise.md)): Office REITs usually fall when commercial real estate defaults rise, because offices are among the property types where defaults are concentrated and lenders.
- [Office REITs When Office Vacancies Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-office-reits-when-office-vacancies-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-office-reits-when-office-vacancies-rise.md)): Office REITs usually fall when office vacancies rise, because empty space reduces income, increases the cost to attract tenants and lowers property values.
- [Office REITs When Rent Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-office-reits-when-rent-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-office-reits-when-rent-growth-accelerates.md)): Office REITs usually benefit when rent growth accelerates, but gains are concentrated in high-quality buildings, and many owners face high leasing costs.
- [Office REITs When Rent Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-office-reits-when-rent-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-office-reits-when-rent-growth-slows.md)): Office REITs usually fall or lag when rent growth slows, because lower rents on renewals and higher incentives reduce income growth in a sector with weak.
- [Residential REITs During a Recession?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-residential-reits-during-a-recession/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-residential-reits-during-a-recession.md)): Residential REITs are often somewhat more defensive than other property types in a recession, because rent is a necessity.
- [Residential REITs When Home Prices Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-residential-reits-when-home-prices-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-residential-reits-when-home-prices-fall.md)): Residential REITs are mixed when home prices fall: lower prices can reduce their property values and make buying more affordable for renters.
- [Residential REITs When Home Prices Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-residential-reits-when-home-prices-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-residential-reits-when-home-prices-rise.md)): Residential REITs usually see property values rise when home prices rise, and higher prices can also keep more households renting because buying becomes less.
- [Residential REITs When Housing Inventory Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-residential-reits-when-housing-inventory-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-residential-reits-when-housing-inventory-falls.md)): Residential REITs usually benefit when housing inventory falls, because buyers are shut out of ownership and more households rent.
- [Residential REITs When Housing Inventory Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-residential-reits-when-housing-inventory-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-residential-reits-when-housing-inventory-rises.md)): Residential REITs are mixed when housing inventory rises, because more homes for sale can ease prices and give renters a path to buy.
- [Residential REITs When Mortgage Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-residential-reits-when-mortgage-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-residential-reits-when-mortgage-rates-fall.md)): Residential REITs are mixed when mortgage rates fall: lower rates help property values and financing, but they can also let renters become buyers.
- [Residential REITs When Mortgage Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-residential-reits-when-mortgage-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-residential-reits-when-mortgage-rates-rise.md)): Residential REITs are mixed when mortgage rates rise: higher rates reduce property values and raise borrowing costs, but they keep more households renting.
- [Retail REITs When Cap Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-retail-reits-when-cap-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-retail-reits-when-cap-rates-fall.md)): Retail REIT prices usually rise when cap rates fall, because the income from shopping centers is capitalized at a lower rate.
- [Retail REITs When Cap Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-retail-reits-when-cap-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-retail-reits-when-cap-rates-rise.md)): Retail REIT prices usually fall when cap rates rise, because lower valuations and higher financing costs hit REITs with weaker centers and heavier debt.
- [Retail REITs When Commercial Real-Estate Defaults Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-retail-reits-when-commercial-real-estate-defaults-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-retail-reits-when-commercial-real-estate-defaults-rise.md)): Retail REITs usually fall when commercial real estate defaults rise, because weaker retail properties are part of the stress and lenders become more cautious.
- [Retail REITs When Office Vacancies Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-retail-reits-when-office-vacancies-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-retail-reits-when-office-vacancies-rise.md)): Retail REITs are not directly affected when office vacancies rise, but they can be affected through lower foot traffic near offices and tighter lending.
- [Retail REITs When Rent Growth Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-retail-reits-when-rent-growth-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-retail-reits-when-rent-growth-accelerates.md)): Retail REITs usually benefit when rent growth accelerates, because higher rents and low vacancy increase income, especially at necessity-based centers.
- [Retail REITs When Rent Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-retail-reits-when-rent-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/real-estate-and-reit-scenarios/what-happens-to-retail-reits-when-rent-growth-slows.md)): Retail REITs usually soften when rent growth slows, because smaller rent increases and higher concessions reduce income growth.
- [Retirement Account Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios.md)): What happens in 35 retirement and tax-advantaged account scenarios: RMD surprises, Roth conversions, early withdrawals, inherited IRA rules.
- [401(k) When a Roth Conversion Is Followed by a Market Drop?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-401-k-when-a-roth-conversion-is-followed-by-a-market-drop/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-401-k-when-a-roth-conversion-is-followed-by-a-market-drop.md)): Stocks fell 10% or more within the next 12 months in 12% of the 12-month windows since 1871 and 20% or more in 5%, and a Roth conversion is taxed on the value.
- [401(k) When Inflation Rises During Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-401-k-when-inflation-rises-during-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-401-k-when-inflation-rises-during-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [401(k) When Interest Rates Fall During Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-401-k-when-interest-rates-fall-during-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-401-k-when-interest-rates-fall-during-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [401(k) When Interest Rates Rise During Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-401-k-when-interest-rates-rise-during-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-401-k-when-interest-rates-rise-during-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [401(k) When Required Minimum Distributions Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-401-k-when-required-minimum-distributions-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-401-k-when-required-minimum-distributions-rise.md)): The IRS Uniform Lifetime Table sets a required minimum distribution as the prior year-end balance divided by a life-expectancy factor.
- [401(k) When the Market Crashes Right After Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-401-k-when-the-market-crashes-right-after-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-401-k-when-the-market-crashes-right-after-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [401(k) When the Market Falls Before Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-401-k-when-the-market-falls-before-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-401-k-when-the-market-falls-before-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [401(k) When Withdrawals Continue Through a Bear Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-401-k-when-withdrawals-continue-through-a-bear-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-401-k-when-withdrawals-continue-through-a-bear-market.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [529 Plan When a 529 Plan Falls Just Before College?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-529-plan-when-a-529-plan-falls-just-before-college/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-529-plan-when-a-529-plan-falls-just-before-college.md)): A 529 plan that falls just before college leaves less money for tuition at the moment it is needed, because there is no time to recover.
- [Household Portfolio When Taxable](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-household-portfolio-when-taxable-and-ira-assets-hold-the-same-investment/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-household-portfolio-when-taxable-and-ira-assets-hold-the-same-investment.md)): A household that holds the same investment in taxable and IRA accounts has the same market risk in both but different tax outcomes.
- [HSA When an HSA Is Invested Aggressively?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-hsa-when-an-hsa-is-invested-aggressively/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-hsa-when-an-hsa-is-invested-aggressively.md)): A health savings account invested aggressively can grow more over decades than one held in cash, but it can also lose value just when medical expenses arise.
- [Retirement Portfolio When a Roth Conversion Is Followed by a Market Drop?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolio-when-a-roth-conversion-is-followed-by-a-market-drop/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolio-when-a-roth-conversion-is-followed-by-a-market-drop.md)): Stocks fell 10% or more within the next 12 months in 12% of the 12-month windows since 1871 and 20% or more in 5%, and a Roth conversion is taxed on the value.
- [Retirement Portfolio When Inflation Rises During Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolio-when-inflation-rises-during-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolio-when-inflation-rises-during-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Retirement Portfolio When Interest Rates Fall During Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolio-when-interest-rates-fall-during-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolio-when-interest-rates-fall-during-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Retirement Portfolio When Interest Rates Rise During Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolio-when-interest-rates-rise-during-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolio-when-interest-rates-rise-during-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Retirement Portfolio When Required Minimum Distributions Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolio-when-required-minimum-distributions-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolio-when-required-minimum-distributions-rise.md)): The IRS Uniform Lifetime Table sets a required minimum distribution as the prior year-end balance divided by a life-expectancy factor.
- [Retirement Portfolio When the Market Crashes Right After Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolio-when-the-market-crashes-right-after-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolio-when-the-market-crashes-right-after-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Retirement Portfolio When the Market Falls Before Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolio-when-the-market-falls-before-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolio-when-the-market-falls-before-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Retirement Portfolio When Withdrawals Continue Through a Bear Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolio-when-withdrawals-continue-through-a-bear-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-retirement-portfolio-when-withdrawals-continue-through-a-bear-market.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Roth IRA When a Roth Conversion Is Followed by a Market Drop?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-roth-ira-when-a-roth-conversion-is-followed-by-a-market-drop/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-roth-ira-when-a-roth-conversion-is-followed-by-a-market-drop.md)): Stocks fell 10% or more within the next 12 months in 12% of the 12-month windows since 1871 and 20% or more in 5%, and a Roth conversion is taxed on the value.
- [Roth IRA When Inflation Rises During Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-roth-ira-when-inflation-rises-during-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-roth-ira-when-inflation-rises-during-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Roth IRA When Interest Rates Fall During Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-roth-ira-when-interest-rates-fall-during-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-roth-ira-when-interest-rates-fall-during-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Roth IRA When Interest Rates Rise During Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-roth-ira-when-interest-rates-rise-during-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-roth-ira-when-interest-rates-rise-during-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Roth IRA When Required Minimum Distributions Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-roth-ira-when-required-minimum-distributions-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-roth-ira-when-required-minimum-distributions-rise.md)): A Roth IRA has no required minimum distributions during the original owner's lifetime, so the schedule below applies to the pre-tax accounts that usually sit.
- [Roth IRA When the Market Crashes Right After Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-roth-ira-when-the-market-crashes-right-after-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-roth-ira-when-the-market-crashes-right-after-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Roth IRA When the Market Falls Before Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-roth-ira-when-the-market-falls-before-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-roth-ira-when-the-market-falls-before-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Roth IRA When Withdrawals Continue Through a Bear Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-roth-ira-when-withdrawals-continue-through-a-bear-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-roth-ira-when-withdrawals-continue-through-a-bear-market.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Traditional IRA When a Roth Conversion Is Followed by a Market Drop?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-traditional-ira-when-a-roth-conversion-is-followed-by-a-market-drop/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-traditional-ira-when-a-roth-conversion-is-followed-by-a-market-drop.md)): Stocks fell 10% or more within the next 12 months in 12% of the 12-month windows since 1871 and 20% or more in 5%, and a Roth conversion is taxed on the value.
- [Traditional IRA When Inflation Rises During Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-traditional-ira-when-inflation-rises-during-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-traditional-ira-when-inflation-rises-during-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Traditional IRA When Interest Rates Fall During Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-traditional-ira-when-interest-rates-fall-during-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-traditional-ira-when-interest-rates-fall-during-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Traditional IRA When Interest Rates Rise During Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-traditional-ira-when-interest-rates-rise-during-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-traditional-ira-when-interest-rates-rise-during-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Traditional IRA When Required Minimum Distributions Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-traditional-ira-when-required-minimum-distributions-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-traditional-ira-when-required-minimum-distributions-rise.md)): The IRS Uniform Lifetime Table sets a required minimum distribution as the prior year-end balance divided by a life-expectancy factor.
- [Traditional IRA When the Market Crashes Right After Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-traditional-ira-when-the-market-crashes-right-after-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-traditional-ira-when-the-market-crashes-right-after-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Traditional IRA When the Market Falls Before Retirement?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-traditional-ira-when-the-market-falls-before-retirement/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-traditional-ira-when-the-market-falls-before-retirement.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Traditional IRA When Withdrawals Continue Through a Bear Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-traditional-ira-when-withdrawals-continue-through-a-bear-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/retirement-and-account-scenarios/what-happens-to-traditional-ira-when-withdrawals-continue-through-a-bear-market.md)): Across every month someone could have retired since 1871 (1509 thirty-year periods), a retiree who took 4% of the starting balance a year.
- [Sector & Industry Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios.md)): What happens to different market sectors when inflation changes, the yield curve shifts, oil prices move, or the economic cycle changes phase.
- [Airline Stocks When Oil Prices Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-airline-stocks-when-oil-prices-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-airline-stocks-when-oil-prices-rise.md)): Airline stocks usually fall when oil prices rise, because jet fuel is one of an airline's largest costs and higher fuel prices cannot always be passed.
- [Airline Stocks When the Dollar Strengthens?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-airline-stocks-when-the-dollar-strengthens/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-airline-stocks-when-the-dollar-strengthens.md)): Airline stocks are usually hurt when the dollar strengthens if they earn much of their revenue abroad, because foreign revenue converts into fewer dollars.
- [Airline Stocks When Travel Demand Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-airline-stocks-when-travel-demand-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-airline-stocks-when-travel-demand-falls.md)): Airline stocks usually fall sharply when travel demand falls, because airlines have high fixed costs and thin margins.
- [Bank Stocks When Credit Losses Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-credit-losses-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-credit-losses-rise.md)): Bank stocks usually fall when credit losses rise, because banks must set aside more reserves, which reduces profit, and rising losses signal weaker borrowers.
- [Bank Stocks When Deposit Costs Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-deposit-costs-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-bank-stocks-when-deposit-costs-rise.md)): Bank stocks usually fall when deposit costs rise, because banks must pay more to keep funding, which compresses net interest margins unless loan yields rise.
- [Homebuilder Stocks When Housing Inventory Rises?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilder-stocks-when-housing-inventory-rises/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilder-stocks-when-housing-inventory-rises.md)): Homebuilder stocks usually come under pressure when housing inventory rises, because more homes for sale increases competition and forces builders to use.
- [Homebuilder Stocks When Mortgage Rates Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilder-stocks-when-mortgage-rates-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilder-stocks-when-mortgage-rates-fall.md)): Homebuilder stocks usually rise when mortgage rates fall, because lower rates improve affordability and bring more buyers into the market.
- [Homebuilder Stocks When Mortgage Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilder-stocks-when-mortgage-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-homebuilder-stocks-when-mortgage-rates-rise.md)): Homebuilder stocks usually fall when mortgage rates rise, because higher financing costs reduce affordability and lead buyers to delay purchases.
- [Oil & Gas Stocks When Oil Prices Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-and-gas-stocks-when-oil-prices-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-and-gas-stocks-when-oil-prices-fall.md)): Oil and gas stocks usually fall when oil prices fall, because lower prices reduce revenue and cash flow faster than costs.
- [Oil & Gas Stocks When Oil Prices Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-and-gas-stocks-when-oil-prices-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-and-gas-stocks-when-oil-prices-rise.md)): Oil and gas stocks usually rise when oil prices rise, because revenue increases while costs are largely fixed, and higher cash flow supports dividends.
- [Oil & Gas Stocks When OPEC Cuts Production?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-and-gas-stocks-when-opec-cuts-production/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-and-gas-stocks-when-opec-cuts-production.md)): Oil and gas stocks usually rise when OPEC cuts production, because supply falls and prices firm, though the effect depends on compliance and on other.
- [Oil Stocks When Crude Prices Collapse?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-stocks-when-crude-prices-collapse/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-oil-stocks-when-crude-prices-collapse.md)): Oil stocks usually fall sharply when crude prices collapse, because revenue and cash flow drop and weaker companies face distress.
- [REITs When Cap Rates Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-reits-when-cap-rates-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-reits-when-cap-rates-rise.md)): REIT prices usually fall when cap rates rise, because the same property income is valued at a higher required return, and higher financing costs reduce.
- [REITs When Rent Growth Slows?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-reits-when-rent-growth-slows/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-reits-when-rent-growth-slows.md)): REIT prices usually soften when rent growth slows, because lower income growth reduces expected returns and may signal weaker demand or more supply.
- [REITs When Treasury Yields Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-reits-when-treasury-yields-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-reits-when-treasury-yields-fall.md)): REIT prices usually rise when Treasury yields fall, because lower yields reduce financing costs and make the income from property more attractive compared.
- [REITs When Treasury Yields Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-reits-when-treasury-yields-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-reits-when-treasury-yields-rise.md)): REIT prices usually fall when Treasury yields rise quickly, because higher yields raise financing costs and make the income from property less attractive.
- [Semiconductor Stocks When AI Capital Spending Accelerates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-semiconductor-stocks-when-ai-capital-spending-accelerates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-semiconductor-stocks-when-ai-capital-spending-accelerates.md)): Semiconductor stocks usually rise when artificial intelligence capital spending accelerates, because cloud and enterprise customers order more accelerators.
- [Semiconductor Stocks When Chip Inventories Fall?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-semiconductor-stocks-when-chip-inventories-fall/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-semiconductor-stocks-when-chip-inventories-fall.md)): Semiconductor stocks usually rise when chip inventories fall, because customers have run down stock and need to reorder.
- [Semiconductor Stocks When Chip Inventories Rise?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-semiconductor-stocks-when-chip-inventories-rise/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-semiconductor-stocks-when-chip-inventories-rise.md)): Semiconductor stocks usually fall when chip inventories rise, because it signals that supply exceeds demand, which leads to order cuts.
- [Semiconductor Stocks When Export Controls Tighten?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-semiconductor-stocks-when-export-controls-tighten/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/sector-and-industry-scenarios/what-happens-to-semiconductor-stocks-when-export-controls-tighten.md)): Semiconductor stocks usually fall when export controls tighten, particularly companies with large sales to the restricted country.
- [Stock Market Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios.md)): What happens to individual stocks, portfolios, and indexes in more than 100 stock market scenarios, from bear markets and corrections to sector rotations.
- [60/40 Portfolio During a Bear Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-during-a-bear-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-during-a-bear-market.md)): Since 1871, a 60/40 portfolio (60% S&P 500, 40% 10-year Treasury, rebalanced monthly) returned a median +4.0% in the 12 months after the start of a bear market.
- [60/40 Portfolio During a Bull Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-during-a-bull-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-during-a-bull-market.md)): Since 1871, a 60/40 portfolio (60% S&P 500, 40% 10-year Treasury, rebalanced monthly) returned a median +12.7% in the 12 months after the start of a bull.
- [60/40 Portfolio During a Market Correction?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-during-a-market-correction/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-during-a-market-correction.md)): Since 1871, a 60/40 portfolio (60% S&P 500, 40% 10-year Treasury, rebalanced monthly) returned a median +7.4% in the 12 months after the start of a correction.
- [60/40 Portfolio During a Market Crash?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-during-a-market-crash/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-during-a-market-crash.md)): Since 1871, a 60/40 portfolio (60% S&P 500, 40% 10-year Treasury, rebalanced monthly) returned a median +10.6% in the 12 months after a fall of 20% or more.
- [60/40 Portfolio When Market Breadth Deteriorates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-when-market-breadth-deteriorates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-when-market-breadth-deteriorates.md)): A 60/40 stock and bond portfolio is usually affected only modestly when market breadth deteriorates, because its stock holdings are diversified and its bond.
- [60/40 Portfolio When Market Breadth Improves?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-when-market-breadth-improves/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-when-market-breadth-improves.md)): A 60/40 portfolio usually benefits modestly when market breadth improves, because gains spread to more stocks and the stock portion is diversified.
- [60/40 Portfolio When Market Volatility Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-when-market-volatility-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-when-market-volatility-falls.md)): Since 1991, a 60/40 portfolio (60% S&P 500, 40% 10-year Treasury, rebalanced monthly) returned a median +10.7% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 10.
- [60/40 Portfolio When Market Volatility Spikes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-when-market-volatility-spikes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-when-market-volatility-spikes.md)): Since 1990, a 60/40 portfolio (60% S&P 500, 40% 10-year Treasury, rebalanced monthly).
- [60/40 Portfolio When Valuations Contract?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-when-valuations-contract/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-when-valuations-contract.md)): Since 1871, a 60/40 portfolio (60% S&P 500, 40% 10-year Treasury, rebalanced monthly) returned a median +5.6% in the 12 months after a fall of 20% or more.
- [60/40 Portfolio When Valuations Expand?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-when-valuations-expand/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-60-40-portfolio-when-valuations-expand.md)): Since 1871, a 60/40 portfolio (60% S&P 500, 40% 10-year Treasury, rebalanced monthly) returned a median +10.3% in the 12 months after a rise of 25% or more.
- [Cyclical Stocks During a Bear Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-during-a-bear-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-during-a-bear-market.md)): Since 1926, U.S. cyclical stocks (an equal-weighted blend of five cyclical industry groups) returned a median +8.2% in the 12 months after the start of a bear.
- [Cyclical Stocks During a Bull Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-during-a-bull-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-during-a-bull-market.md)): Since 1926, U.S. cyclical stocks (an equal-weighted blend of five cyclical industry groups) returned a median +21.3% in the 12 months after the start of a bull.
- [Cyclical Stocks During a Market Correction?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-during-a-market-correction/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-during-a-market-correction.md)): Since 1926, U.S. cyclical stocks (an equal-weighted blend of five cyclical industry groups) returned a median +16.4% in the 12 months after the start.
- [Cyclical Stocks During a Market Crash?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-during-a-market-crash/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-during-a-market-crash.md)): Since 1926, U.S. cyclical stocks (an equal-weighted blend of five cyclical industry groups).
- [Cyclical Stocks When Market Breadth Deteriorates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-market-breadth-deteriorates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-market-breadth-deteriorates.md)): Cyclical stocks usually lag when market breadth deteriorates, because weakening participation often reflects slower economic growth and cyclical companies.
- [Cyclical Stocks When Market Breadth Improves?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-market-breadth-improves/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-market-breadth-improves.md)): Cyclical stocks usually benefit when market breadth improves, because broader participation often reflects improving growth expectations that lift economically.
- [Cyclical Stocks When Market Volatility Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-market-volatility-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-market-volatility-falls.md)): Since 1991, U.S. cyclical stocks (an equal-weighted blend of five cyclical industry groups) returned a median +23.2% in the 12 months after a fall of at least.
- [Cyclical Stocks When Market Volatility Spikes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-market-volatility-spikes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-market-volatility-spikes.md)): Since 1990, U.S. cyclical stocks (an equal-weighted blend of five cyclical industry groups).
- [Cyclical Stocks When Valuations Contract?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-valuations-contract/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-valuations-contract.md)): Since 1926, U.S. cyclical stocks (an equal-weighted blend of five cyclical industry groups).
- [Cyclical Stocks When Valuations Expand?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-valuations-expand/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-cyclical-stocks-when-valuations-expand.md)): Since 1926, U.S. cyclical stocks (an equal-weighted blend of five cyclical industry groups).
- [Defensive Stocks During a Bear Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-during-a-bear-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-during-a-bear-market.md)): Since 1926, U.S. defensive stocks (an equal-weighted blend of four defensive industry groups) returned a median -1.6% in the 12 months after the start.
- [Defensive Stocks During a Bull Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-during-a-bull-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-during-a-bull-market.md)): Since 1926, U.S. defensive stocks (an equal-weighted blend of four defensive industry groups) returned a median +14.3% in the 12 months after the start.
- [Defensive Stocks During a Market Correction?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-during-a-market-correction/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-during-a-market-correction.md)): Since 1926, U.S. defensive stocks (an equal-weighted blend of four defensive industry groups) returned a median +15.0% in the 12 months after the start.
- [Defensive Stocks During a Market Crash?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-during-a-market-crash/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-during-a-market-crash.md)): Since 1926, U.S. defensive stocks (an equal-weighted blend of four defensive industry groups).
- [Defensive Stocks When Market Breadth Deteriorates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-when-market-breadth-deteriorates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-when-market-breadth-deteriorates.md)): Defensive stocks usually hold up better than the broad market when breadth deteriorates, because investors favor steady earnings in utilities.
- [Defensive Stocks When Market Breadth Improves?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-when-market-breadth-improves/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-when-market-breadth-improves.md)): Defensive stocks usually lag when market breadth improves, because broader participation often comes with rising risk appetite and growth expectations.
- [Defensive Stocks When Market Volatility Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-when-market-volatility-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-when-market-volatility-falls.md)): Since 1991, U.S. defensive stocks (an equal-weighted blend of four defensive industry groups) returned a median +10.8% in the 12 months after a fall.
- [Defensive Stocks When Market Volatility Spikes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-when-market-volatility-spikes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-when-market-volatility-spikes.md)): Since 1990, U.S. defensive stocks (an equal-weighted blend of four defensive industry groups).
- [Defensive Stocks When Valuations Contract?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-when-valuations-contract/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-when-valuations-contract.md)): Since 1926, U.S. defensive stocks (an equal-weighted blend of four defensive industry groups).
- [Defensive Stocks When Valuations Expand?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-when-valuations-expand/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-defensive-stocks-when-valuations-expand.md)): Since 1926, U.S. defensive stocks (an equal-weighted blend of four defensive industry groups).
- [Dividend Stocks During a Bear Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-during-a-bear-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-during-a-bear-market.md)): Since 1927, U.S. dividend stocks (the 20% with the highest dividend yields) returned a median +4.3% in the 12 months after the start of a bear market.
- [Dividend Stocks During a Bull Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-during-a-bull-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-during-a-bull-market.md)): Since 1927, U.S. dividend stocks (the 20% with the highest dividend yields) returned a median +18.6% in the 12 months after the start of a bull market.
- [Dividend Stocks During a Market Correction?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-during-a-market-correction/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-during-a-market-correction.md)): Since 1927, U.S. dividend stocks (the 20% with the highest dividend yields) returned a median +15.6% in the 12 months after the start of a correction.
- [Dividend Stocks During a Market Crash?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-during-a-market-crash/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-during-a-market-crash.md)): Since 1927, U.S. dividend stocks (the 20% with the highest dividend yields) returned a median +17.1% in the 12 months after a fall of 20% or more in three.
- [Dividend Stocks When Market Breadth Deteriorates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-when-market-breadth-deteriorates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-when-market-breadth-deteriorates.md)): Dividend stocks have tended to hold up better than the broad market when breadth deteriorates, because their income and more mature businesses attract.
- [Dividend Stocks When Market Breadth Improves?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-when-market-breadth-improves/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-when-market-breadth-improves.md)): Dividend stocks have tended to lag the broad market when breadth improves, because broad rallies often favor growth and cyclical stocks.
- [Dividend Stocks When Market Volatility Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-when-market-volatility-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-when-market-volatility-falls.md)): Since 1991, U.S. dividend stocks (the 20% with the highest dividend yields) returned a median +17.1% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 10 points.
- [Dividend Stocks When Market Volatility Spikes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-when-market-volatility-spikes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-when-market-volatility-spikes.md)): Since 1990, U.S. dividend stocks (the 20% with the highest dividend yields) returned a median +21.5% in the 12 months after a VIX close of 30 or more.
- [Dividend Stocks When Valuations Contract?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-when-valuations-contract/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-when-valuations-contract.md)): Since 1927, U.S. dividend stocks (the 20% with the highest dividend yields) returned a median +14.1% in the 12 months after a fall of 20% or more in the CAPE.
- [Dividend Stocks When Valuations Expand?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-when-valuations-expand/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dividend-stocks-when-valuations-expand.md)): Since 1927, U.S. dividend stocks (the 20% with the highest dividend yields) returned a median +14.4% in the 12 months after a rise of 25% or more in the CAPE.
- [Dow Jones Industrial Average During a Bear Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-during-a-bear-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-during-a-bear-market.md)): The Dow Jones Industrial Average usually falls 20% or more during a bear market, but it has often fallen somewhat less than the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000.
- [Dow Jones Industrial Average During a Bull Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-during-a-bull-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-during-a-bull-market.md)): The Dow Jones Industrial Average usually rises for years during a bull market, but it has often gained less than the Nasdaq because of its mature.
- [Dow Jones Industrial Average During a Market Correction?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-during-a-market-correction/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-during-a-market-correction.md)): The Dow Jones Industrial Average usually falls about 10% to 20% during a correction and then recovers, with corrections occurring fairly often even in healthy.
- [Dow Jones Industrial Average During a Market Crash?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-during-a-market-crash/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-during-a-market-crash.md)): The Dow Jones Industrial Average falls very quickly during a market crash, and while it has recovered from past crashes.
- [Dow Jones Industrial Average When Market Breadth Deteriorates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-when-market-breadth-deteriorates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-when-market-breadth-deteriorates.md)): The Dow Jones Industrial Average is often supported by a few heavyweight members when breadth deteriorates, so it can hold up while most stocks decline.
- [Dow Jones Industrial Average When Market Breadth Improves?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-when-market-breadth-improves/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-when-market-breadth-improves.md)): The Dow Jones Industrial Average usually benefits modestly when breadth improves, because broader participation lifts its cyclical and value components.
- [Dow Jones Industrial Average When Market Volatility Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-when-market-volatility-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-when-market-volatility-falls.md)): The Dow Jones Industrial Average usually rises or drifts higher when market volatility falls, because calmer markets reflect lower perceived risk and support.
- [Dow Jones Industrial Average When Market Volatility Spikes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-when-market-volatility-spikes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-when-market-volatility-spikes.md)): The Dow Jones Industrial Average usually falls when market volatility spikes, because a jump in volatility reflects fear and forced selling.
- [Dow Jones Industrial Average When Valuations Contract?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-when-valuations-contract/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-when-valuations-contract.md)): The Dow Jones Industrial Average usually falls or lags when valuations contract, because the market pays less for each dollar of earnings.
- [Dow Jones Industrial Average When Valuations Expand?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-when-valuations-expand/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-dow-jones-industrial-average-when-valuations-expand.md)): The Dow Jones Industrial Average usually rises when valuations expand, because investors pay more for each dollar of earnings.
- [Growth Stocks During a Bear Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-during-a-bear-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-during-a-bear-market.md)): Since 1926, U.S. growth stocks (the 20% with the lowest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +8.9% in the 12 months after the start of a bear market.
- [Growth Stocks During a Bull Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-during-a-bull-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-during-a-bull-market.md)): Since 1926, U.S. growth stocks (the 20% with the lowest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +20.5% in the 12 months after the start of a bull market.
- [Growth Stocks During a Market Correction?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-during-a-market-correction/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-during-a-market-correction.md)): Since 1926, U.S. growth stocks (the 20% with the lowest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +10.3% in the 12 months after the start of a correction.
- [Growth Stocks During a Market Crash?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-during-a-market-crash/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-during-a-market-crash.md)): Since 1926, U.S. growth stocks (the 20% with the lowest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +17.4% in the 12 months after a fall of 20% or more in three.
- [Growth Stocks When Market Breadth Deteriorates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-market-breadth-deteriorates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-market-breadth-deteriorates.md)): Growth stocks, especially the largest ones, often hold up or lead when market breadth deteriorates, because narrow markets are frequently driven by a handful.
- [Growth Stocks When Market Breadth Improves?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-market-breadth-improves/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-market-breadth-improves.md)): Growth stocks are mixed when market breadth improves: they usually rise, but they can lag as money moves into cyclical.
- [Growth Stocks When Market Volatility Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-market-volatility-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-market-volatility-falls.md)): Since 1991, U.S. growth stocks (the 20% with the lowest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +18.3% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 10 points.
- [Growth Stocks When Market Volatility Spikes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-market-volatility-spikes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-market-volatility-spikes.md)): Since 1990, U.S. growth stocks (the 20% with the lowest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +18.2% in the 12 months after a VIX close of 30 or more.
- [Growth Stocks When Valuations Contract?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-valuations-contract/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-valuations-contract.md)): Since 1926, U.S. growth stocks (the 20% with the lowest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +16.7% in the 12 months after a fall of 20% or more.
- [Growth Stocks When Valuations Expand?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-valuations-expand/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-growth-stocks-when-valuations-expand.md)): Since 1926, U.S. growth stocks (the 20% with the lowest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +16.2% in the 12 months after a rise of 25% or more.
- [Nasdaq During a Bear Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-during-a-bear-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-during-a-bear-market.md)): The Nasdaq usually falls more than the Dow or S&P 500 during a bear market, because it holds many growth and technology companies whose valuations are more.
- [Nasdaq During a Bull Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-during-a-bull-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-during-a-bull-market.md)): The Nasdaq usually rises more than the Dow or S&P 500 during a bull market, because its technology and growth stocks benefit most from rising earnings.
- [Nasdaq During a Market Correction?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-during-a-market-correction/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-during-a-market-correction.md)): The Nasdaq usually falls more than the S&P 500 or Dow during a correction, often by 10% to 20% or more, because growth stocks are more volatile.
- [Nasdaq During a Market Crash?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-during-a-market-crash/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-during-a-market-crash.md)): The Nasdaq usually falls very sharply during a market crash, often more than other major indexes, and recoveries from major crashes have taken years.
- [Nasdaq When Market Breadth Deteriorates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-when-market-breadth-deteriorates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-when-market-breadth-deteriorates.md)): The Nasdaq often holds up when breadth deteriorates because a small number of large technology companies dominate it, but it becomes more vulnerable.
- [Nasdaq When Market Breadth Improves?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-when-market-breadth-improves/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-when-market-breadth-improves.md)): The Nasdaq usually rises when breadth improves, but its leadership may shift, with smaller and cyclical members gaining relative to the largest technology.
- [Nasdaq When Market Volatility Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-when-market-volatility-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-when-market-volatility-falls.md)): The Nasdaq usually rises when market volatility falls, because lower volatility supports risk appetite and growth stocks tend to benefit most from calm.
- [Nasdaq When Market Volatility Spikes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-when-market-volatility-spikes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-when-market-volatility-spikes.md)): The Nasdaq usually falls more than the broader market when volatility spikes, because it is more volatile and holds growth stocks that are sensitive to changes.
- [Nasdaq When Valuations Contract?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-when-valuations-contract/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-when-valuations-contract.md)): The Nasdaq usually falls when valuations contract, and often by more than the broader market, because its growth companies have a higher share of value.
- [Nasdaq When Valuations Expand?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-when-valuations-expand/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-nasdaq-when-valuations-expand.md)): The Nasdaq usually rises when valuations expand, and often by more than the broader market, because growth companies gain most when investors pay higher.
- [Russell 2000 During a Bear Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-during-a-bear-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-during-a-bear-market.md)): The Russell 2000 usually falls about as much or more than large-cap indexes during a bear market, because small companies are more sensitive to credit.
- [Russell 2000 During a Bull Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-during-a-bull-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-during-a-bull-market.md)): The Russell 2000 usually rises strongly in the early stage of a bull market, but small caps have often lagged large caps in long late-cycle advances led.
- [Russell 2000 During a Market Correction?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-during-a-market-correction/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-during-a-market-correction.md)): The Russell 2000 usually falls more than large-cap indexes during a correction, because small companies are more sensitive to financial conditions and tend.
- [Russell 2000 During a Market Crash?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-during-a-market-crash/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-during-a-market-crash.md)): The Russell 2000 usually falls sharply during a market crash, often more than large caps, because small companies are less liquid and more exposed to credit.
- [Russell 2000 When Market Breadth Deteriorates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-when-market-breadth-deteriorates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-when-market-breadth-deteriorates.md)): The Russell 2000 usually lags when breadth deteriorates, because the weakest and smallest stocks are the ones that stop participating.
- [Russell 2000 When Market Breadth Improves?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-when-market-breadth-improves/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-when-market-breadth-improves.md)): The Russell 2000 usually benefits when breadth improves, because broad participation tends to include small companies that had been lagging.
- [Russell 2000 When Market Volatility Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-when-market-volatility-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-when-market-volatility-falls.md)): The Russell 2000 usually rises when market volatility falls, because lower volatility reduces risk aversion and small companies benefit from easier conditions.
- [Russell 2000 When Market Volatility Spikes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-when-market-volatility-spikes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-when-market-volatility-spikes.md)): The Russell 2000 usually falls more than large-cap indexes when volatility spikes, because small stocks are less liquid and more sensitive to credit and risk.
- [Russell 2000 When Valuations Contract?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-when-valuations-contract/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-when-valuations-contract.md)): The Russell 2000 usually falls when valuations contract, but it has often fallen less than growth-heavy indexes because many small caps carry lower multiples.
- [Russell 2000 When Valuations Expand?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-when-valuations-expand/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-russell-2000-when-valuations-expand.md)): The Russell 2000 usually rises when valuations expand, particularly when rates fall and credit eases, because small caps benefit disproportionately from easier.
- [S&P 500 During a Bear Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-during-a-bear-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-during-a-bear-market.md)): Since 1871, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +4.3% in the 12 months after the start of a bear market.
- [S&P 500 During a Bull Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-during-a-bull-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-during-a-bull-market.md)): Since 1871, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +18.2% in the 12 months after the start of a bull market.
- [S&P 500 During a Market Correction?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-during-a-market-correction/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-during-a-market-correction.md)): Since 1871, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +6.4% in the 12 months after the start of a correction.
- [S&P 500 During a Market Crash?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-during-a-market-crash/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-during-a-market-crash.md)): Since 1871, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +13.6% in the 12 months after a fall of 20% or more in three months.
- [S&P 500 When Market Breadth Deteriorates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-when-market-breadth-deteriorates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-when-market-breadth-deteriorates.md)): The S&P 500 can keep rising when breadth deteriorates because it is weighted by market value, so a few giant stocks can lift the index while most members fall.
- [S&P 500 When Market Breadth Improves?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-when-market-breadth-improves/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-when-market-breadth-improves.md)): The S&P 500 usually benefits when breadth improves, because broader participation spreads gains beyond a few large stocks and is generally seen as a sign.
- [S&P 500 When Market Volatility Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-when-market-volatility-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-when-market-volatility-falls.md)): Since 1991, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +13.5% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 10 points in the average VIX.
- [S&P 500 When Market Volatility Spikes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-when-market-volatility-spikes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-when-market-volatility-spikes.md)): Since 1990, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +18.5% in the 12 months after a VIX close of 30 or more.
- [S&P 500 When Valuations Contract?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-when-valuations-contract/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-when-valuations-contract.md)): Since 1871, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +4.3% in the 12 months after a fall of 20% or more in the CAPE ratio within.
- [S&P 500 When Valuations Expand?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-when-valuations-expand/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-s-and-p-500-when-valuations-expand.md)): Since 1871, U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) returned a median +13.9% in the 12 months after a rise of 25% or more in the CAPE ratio within.
- [Small-Cap Stocks During a Bear Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-a-bear-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-a-bear-market.md)): Since 1926, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +8.6% in the 12 months after the start of a bear market.
- [Small-Cap Stocks During a Bull Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-a-bull-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-a-bull-market.md)): Since 1926, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +25.7% in the 12 months after the start of a bull market.
- [Small-Cap Stocks During a Market Correction?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-a-market-correction/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-a-market-correction.md)): Since 1926, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +19.2% in the 12 months after the start of a correction.
- [Small-Cap Stocks During a Market Crash?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-a-market-crash/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-during-a-market-crash.md)): Since 1926, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +11.8% in the 12 months after a fall of 20% or more in three months.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When Market Breadth Deteriorates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-market-breadth-deteriorates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-market-breadth-deteriorates.md)): Small-cap stocks usually lag when market breadth deteriorates, because they are among the stocks that stop participating when the market narrows to a few large.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When Market Breadth Improves?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-market-breadth-improves/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-market-breadth-improves.md)): Small-cap stocks usually benefit when market breadth improves, because broader participation tends to include smaller companies that had been lagging.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When Market Volatility Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-market-volatility-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-market-volatility-falls.md)): Since 1991, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +20.9% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 10 points.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When Market Volatility Spikes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-market-volatility-spikes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-market-volatility-spikes.md)): Since 1990, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +12.2% in the 12 months after a VIX close of 30 or more.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When Valuations Contract?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-valuations-contract/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-valuations-contract.md)): Since 1926, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +2.9% in the 12 months after a fall of 20% or more in the CAPE ratio.
- [Small-Cap Stocks When Valuations Expand?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-valuations-expand/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-small-cap-stocks-when-valuations-expand.md)): Since 1926, small-cap U.S. stocks (the smallest 20% by market value) returned a median +17.3% in the 12 months after a rise of 25% or more in the CAPE ratio.
- [Value Stocks During a Bear Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-during-a-bear-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-during-a-bear-market.md)): Since 1926, U.S. value stocks (the 20% with the highest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +2.0% in the 12 months after the start of a bear market.
- [Value Stocks During a Bull Market?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-during-a-bull-market/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-during-a-bull-market.md)): Since 1926, U.S. value stocks (the 20% with the highest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +25.5% in the 12 months after the start of a bull market.
- [Value Stocks During a Market Correction?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-during-a-market-correction/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-during-a-market-correction.md)): Since 1926, U.S. value stocks (the 20% with the highest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +17.8% in the 12 months after the start of a correction.
- [Value Stocks During a Market Crash?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-during-a-market-crash/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-during-a-market-crash.md)): Since 1926, U.S. value stocks (the 20% with the highest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +21.1% in the 12 months after a fall of 20% or more in three.
- [Value Stocks When Market Breadth Deteriorates?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-market-breadth-deteriorates/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-market-breadth-deteriorates.md)): Value stocks are mixed when market breadth deteriorates: they often lag when a handful of growth stocks lead, but they can hold up better than the market if.
- [Value Stocks When Market Breadth Improves?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-market-breadth-improves/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-market-breadth-improves.md)): Value stocks usually benefit when market breadth improves, because broader participation tends to include cyclical and cheaper stocks that had lagged.
- [Value Stocks When Market Volatility Falls?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-market-volatility-falls/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-market-volatility-falls.md)): Since 1991, U.S. value stocks (the 20% with the highest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +20.8% in the 12 months after a fall of at least 10 points.
- [Value Stocks When Market Volatility Spikes?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-market-volatility-spikes/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-market-volatility-spikes.md)): Since 1990, U.S. value stocks (the 20% with the highest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +20.8% in the 12 months after a VIX close of 30 or more.
- [Value Stocks When Valuations Contract?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-valuations-contract/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-valuations-contract.md)): Since 1926, U.S. value stocks (the 20% with the highest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +6.5% in the 12 months after a fall of 20% or more in the CAPE.
- [Value Stocks When Valuations Expand?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-valuations-expand/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/stock-market-scenarios/what-happens-to-value-stocks-when-valuations-expand.md)): Since 1926, U.S. value stocks (the 20% with the highest book-to-market ratios) returned a median +19.3% in the 12 months after a rise of 25% or more.
- [Investment Tax Scenarios](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios.md)): What happens to after-tax investment returns in 12 tax scenarios covering qualified dividends, capital gains holding periods, wash sales, & tax-loss harvesting.
- [An Investor When a Dividend Is Nonqualified?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-a-dividend-is-nonqualified/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-a-dividend-is-nonqualified.md)): A nonqualified dividend is taxed as ordinary income at the investor's regular federal rate, which is usually higher than the rate on qualified dividends.
- [An Investor When a Dividend Is Qualified?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-a-dividend-is-qualified/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-a-dividend-is-qualified.md)): A qualified dividend is taxed at the lower long-term capital gains rates, 0%, 15% or 20% depending on income, instead of ordinary income rates.
- [An Investor When a Mutual Fund Distributes Capital Gains?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-a-mutual-fund-distributes-capital-gains/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-a-mutual-fund-distributes-capital-gains.md)): A mutual fund that distributes capital gains creates a taxable event for shareholders in taxable accounts even if they did not sell and even if.
- [An Investor When an ETF Makes a Capital-Gain Distribution?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-an-etf-makes-a-capital-gain-distribution/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-an-etf-makes-a-capital-gain-distribution.md)): An exchange-traded fund that makes a capital gain distribution creates a taxable event for holders in taxable accounts.
- [An Investor When an Inherited Investment Gets a Basis Adjustment?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-an-inherited-investment-gets-a-basis-adjustment/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-an-inherited-investment-gets-a-basis-adjustment.md)): An inherited investment generally gets a basis adjustment to its fair market value at the date of the previous owner's death.
- [An Investor When an Investment Is Held in a Roth IRA Instead of Taxable?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-an-investment-is-held-in-a-roth-ira-instead-of-taxable/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-an-investment-is-held-in-a-roth-ira-instead-of-taxable.md)): An investment held in a Roth IRA instead of a taxable account grows without annual tax on dividends or gains and can be withdrawn tax-free if the account rules.
- [An Investor When an Investor Exercises an Option?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-an-investor-exercises-an-option/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-an-investor-exercises-an-option.md)): The tax result of exercising an option depends on its type: exercising an exchange-traded option is generally not itself a taxable event and its cost is built.
- [An Investor When Cost Basis Records Are Missing?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-cost-basis-records-are-missing/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-cost-basis-records-are-missing.md)): When cost basis records are missing, the investor may be unable to prove what was paid for an investment, and the IRS may treat the basis as zero.
- [An Investor When the Wash-Sale Rule Applies?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-the-wash-sale-rule-applies/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-the-wash-sale-rule-applies.md)): When the wash-sale rule applies, a loss on the sale of a security is disallowed for the current year because the investor bought the same or a substantially.
- [An Investor When You Rebuy a Stock After Tax-Loss Harvesting?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-you-rebuy-a-stock-after-tax-loss-harvesting/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-you-rebuy-a-stock-after-tax-loss-harvesting.md)): Rebuying a stock after tax-loss harvesting keeps the loss deduction only if the repurchase is more than 30 days after the sale.
- [An Investor When You Sell an Investment at a Gain?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-you-sell-an-investment-at-a-gain/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-you-sell-an-investment-at-a-gain.md)): Selling an investment at a gain creates a taxable capital gain: gains on assets held one year or less are taxed at ordinary income rates.
- [An Investor When You Sell an Investment at a Loss?](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-you-sell-an-investment-at-a-loss/) ([Markdown](https://www.getswoopr.com/scenario-analysis/tax-scenarios/what-happens-to-an-investor-when-you-sell-an-investment-at-a-loss.md)): Selling an investment at a loss creates a capital loss that first offsets capital gains and then up to $3,000 of ordinary income per year.