---
title: "Sentiment Indicators"
description: "Indicators derived from options activity, surveys, and positioning data that describe investor expectations, fear, greed, and crowd behavior."
canonical: https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/
source: "Swoopr Investment: https://www.getswoopr.com"
---

## Direct Answer



Indicators derived from options activity, surveys, and positioning data that describe investor expectations, fear, greed, and crowd behavior.





      


# Sentiment Indicators



> Sentiment indicators measure what investors as a group expect or fear, from three sources: the prices they pay for options (the VIX family, put-call ratios, skew), the answers they give to surveys (AAII, Investors Intelligence, NAAIM) and the positions they hold (margin debt, short interest, fund flows, insider and corporate activity, the Commitments of Traders report). They are read most often as contrarian signals at extremes, because a crowded view leaves fewer buyers or sellers to extend it.

## What do Sentiment indicators have in common?

Every indicator in this category starts from the same idea: a market move needs new money to continue, and when nearly everyone is already positioned for it there is little new money left. The problem is that expectations are not directly observable, so each indicator here infers them from something that is: the premium paid for puts over calls, the share of a survey's respondents who call themselves bullish, the amount borrowed against stocks, the exposure reported by active managers, or the net futures position of commercial hedgers against speculators.

The category divides by source. Option-based measures (the VIX and its 9-day, 3-month, 6-month and 1-year versions, the VIX term structure and its contango and backwardation, VVIX, the SKEW index, options and volatility skew, the equity, index, SPX, ETF, VIX and total put-call ratios) update continuously and reflect money at risk.

Survey measures (AAII bullish, bearish and the spread, the Investors Intelligence spread, the NAAIM exposure index) update weekly and reflect stated views or reported exposure. Positioning measures (FINRA margin debt and its ratio to market cap, short interest and days to cover, ETF and mutual fund flows, the insider buy-sell ratio, corporate buyback activity, IPO activity, the Commitments of Traders net positions by trader class) update weekly or monthly and reflect what has been done rather than said. The composite gauges (market fear and greed, safe-haven demand, junk bond demand, credit spread sentiment) combine several of these into one reading.

What they share is the contrarian reading rule and its qualification: extremes have marked turning points, but a market can stay crowded for months, so the indicators are a measure of how much room a move has left rather than of when it ends. They also share a reliance on history, since an extreme is only recognizable against a long record, and the surveys and the Commitments of Traders report have published records back to the 1980s.

## How do you choose a Sentiment indicator?

- Start from the speed required: an option price reacts within minutes, a survey within a week, a positioning report within a month
- Prefer a measure with a long published history so that an extreme can be judged against decades of readings rather than a few years
- Pair a price-based measure with a survey or positioning measure; agreement between two independent sources is a stronger reading than either alone
- Read the VIX term structure, not only the VIX level, since backwardation (near-term volatility above longer-term) marks stress more reliably than any single level
- Treat the Commitments of Traders report by trader class: commercial hedgers are usually right at extremes and large speculators usually wrong, which is the basis of its contrarian use

## Sentiment indicators at a glance

| Indicator | What it measures | How it is read |
| --- | --- | --- |
| [AAII Bearish Sentiment](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/aaii-bearish-sentiment/) | The percentage of respondents in the weekly American Association of Individual Investors survey who say they expect stock prices to fall over the next six months. | A high share of bears means individual investors are pessimistic, and many analysts read extreme pessimism as a contrarian sign that selling pressure may be near exhaustion. |
| [AAII Bull-Bear Spread](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/aaii-bull-bear-spread/) | The difference between the percentage of bullish and bearish respondents in the weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey. | A positive spread means optimists outnumber pessimists, and a negative one means the reverse. |
| [AAII Bullish Sentiment](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/aaii-bullish-sentiment/) | The percentage of respondents in the weekly AAII survey who expect stock prices to rise over the next six months. | A high bullish share indicates optimism among individual investors and is often read from a contrarian standpoint as a sign of crowded positioning. |
| [Asset Manager Net Position](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/asset-manager-net-position/) | The net futures position of the Asset Manager/Institutional category in the CFTC Traders in Financial Futures report: long positions minus short positions. | A net long position means the category holds more long than short contracts, and a net short means the reverse. |
| [Commercial Hedger Net Position](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/commercial-hedger-net-position/) | The net futures position of commercial traders, those the CFTC classifies as hedging a business risk, in the Commitments of Traders report: long contracts minus short contracts. | Because commercials hedge physical exposure, their net position often moves against price: they tend to add shorts into rallies and cover into declines. |
| [Commitments of Traders Net Position](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/commitments-of-traders-net-position/) | Long contracts minus short contracts for any chosen trader category in the CFTC Commitments of Traders reports. | A positive value means the group is net long and a negative one that it is net short. |
| [Corporate Buyback Activity](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/corporate-buyback-activity/) | The total value of shares that companies repurchase in a period, commonly shown as a dollar amount or as a percentage of market capitalisation. | Rising repurchases signal that companies are confident enough, or flush enough with cash, to buy back stock, and the activity adds demand for shares. |
| [Credit Spread Sentiment](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/credit-spread-sentiment/) | The gap between the yield on corporate bonds and the yield on Treasuries of comparable maturity, often the option-adjusted spread of a high-yield or investment-grade index. | A widening spread means investors demand more compensation for credit risk and is typically associated with risk aversion; a narrowing spread points to confidence. |
| [Days to Cover](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/days-to-cover/) | Short interest divided by the average daily trading volume of a stock, giving the number of days it would take short sellers to buy back their shares at normal volume. | A high value means a crowded short position that would be hard to unwind quickly, which raises the possibility of a sharp rise if short sellers rush to cover. |
| [Equity Put/Call Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/equity-put-call-ratio/) | Put option volume divided by call option volume on single-stock options, as published by Cboe for its equity-only ratio. | A higher ratio means relatively more put trading and a lower one more call trading. |
| [ETF Fund Flows](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/etf-fund-flows/) | The net amount of money moving into or out of exchange-traded funds in a period, measured as the change in shares outstanding multiplied by the net asset value per share. | Net inflows into equity ETFs are seen as investors adding risk, and outflows as risk reduction. |
| [ETF Put/Call Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/etf-put-call-ratio/) | Put volume divided by call volume on options listed on exchange-traded products, as published by Cboe in its ETP put/call ratio. | A higher ratio shows more put trading relative to calls. |
| [FINRA Margin Debt](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/finra-margin-debt/) | The total debit balances in customers' securities margin accounts, which FINRA publishes each month from member-firm reports. | Rising margin debt means investors are using more leverage, which generally accompanies a rising market; falling margin debt means deleveraging. |
| [Index Put/Call Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/index-put-call-ratio/) | Put volume divided by call volume on index options, as published by Cboe in its index put/call ratio. | Because hedging demand keeps put volume high, the index ratio is usually above 1, and changes are read against its own history. |
| [Insider Buy/Sell Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/insider-buy-sell-ratio/) | The count (or dollar value) of open-market insider purchases divided by open-market insider sales, drawn from Form 4 filings. | A higher ratio means insiders are buying relatively more than selling and is read as confidence in the outlook. |
| [Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/investors-intelligence-bull-bear-spread/) | The difference between the percentage of bullish and bearish investment newsletter editors in the Investors Intelligence survey, which also tracks a correction group. | A wide positive spread shows strong adviser optimism and is often read from a contrarian angle as a sign of crowded bullishness, while a negative or very small spread shows pessimism. |
| [IPO Activity Gauge](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/ipo-activity-gauge/) | A measure of how many companies are listing, commonly the number of IPOs priced in a period or their combined proceeds, sometimes alongside average first-day returns. | A rise in listings and in first-day returns is usually linked to strong investor appetite for new risk, and a drought of IPOs to cautious markets. |
| [Junk Bond Demand Gauge](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/junk-bond-demand-gauge/) | The yield spread between high-yield (junk) bonds and investment-grade bonds, as used for the junk bond demand component of the CNN Fear and Greed Index. | A narrow spread means investors are willing to hold riskier bonds without demanding much extra yield, which is read as strong risk appetite; a wide spread means demand for junk bonds is weak. |
| [Leveraged Funds Net Position](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/leveraged-funds-net-position/) | The net futures position of the Leveraged Funds category in the CFTC Traders in Financial Futures report: long contracts minus short contracts. | A net short position means leveraged funds are positioned for declines or are using futures against other holdings; a net long means the opposite. |
| [Margin Debt to Market Cap](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/margin-debt-to-market-cap/) | FINRA margin debt expressed as a percentage of the total market capitalisation of the US stock market. | A rising ratio means borrowing is growing faster than the market itself and a falling ratio the reverse. |
| [Market Fear & Greed Composite](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/market-fear-and-greed-composite/) | A single score built by averaging several sentiment inputs, modelled on the CNN Fear and Greed Index, which combines seven indicators: price momentum, price strength, price breadth, put/call options, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand. | Low scores describe fear and high scores greed, with the middle of the range neutral. |
| [Mutual Fund Flows](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/mutual-fund-flows/) | The net amount of new money entering or leaving mutual funds in a period: sales plus reinvested distributions less redemptions. | Net inflows to equity funds show investors adding risk and net outflows show them retreating. |
| [NAAIM Exposure Index](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/naaim-exposure-index/) | The weekly average equity exposure reported by active managers who are members of the National Association of Active Investment Managers. | A reading near 0 means managers on average are out of the market, 100 means fully invested, and above 100 means leveraged long. |
| [Noncommercial Net Position](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/noncommercial-net-position/) | The net futures position of non-commercial traders in the legacy CFTC Commitments of Traders report: long contracts minus short contracts. | A net long position means large speculators are positioned for higher prices and a net short means the opposite. |
| [Options Skew](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/options-skew/) | The difference in implied volatility between out-of-the-money puts and other options of the same expiry, such as at-the-money or out-of-the-money calls. | A larger positive skew means puts are priced richer than calls, indicating stronger demand for downside protection. |
| [Safe-Haven Demand Gauge](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/safe-haven-demand-gauge/) | The difference between the recent return on stocks and the recent return on Treasury bonds, used for the safe haven demand component of the CNN Fear and Greed Index, which uses a 20-trading-day window. | A positive reading means stocks beat bonds, which is consistent with risk appetite; a negative reading means bonds outperformed, consistent with a flight to safety. |
| [Short Interest Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/short-interest-ratio/) | Short interest, the total shares sold short and not yet covered, divided by average daily trading volume. | A high ratio shows a heavily shorted stock relative to how much it trades, which is read as bearish positioning that could also fuel a squeeze if the stock rises. |
| [SPX Put/Call Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/spx-put-call-ratio/) | Put volume divided by call volume on options of the S&P 500 index (SPX), as published by Cboe. | A higher ratio indicates more put trading and a lower one more call trading. |
| [VIX Futures Backwardation](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/vix-futures-backwardation/) | A VIX futures curve in which the nearer contract is priced above the next one, so the curve slopes downward with maturity. | Backwardation commonly appears when markets are stressed and near-term volatility is high. |
| [VIX Futures Contango](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/vix-futures-contango/) | A VIX futures curve in which the nearer contract is priced below the next one, so the curve slopes upward with maturity. | Contango typically accompanies calm markets and implies traders expect volatility to rise toward its long-term average. |
| [VIX Put/Call Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/vix-put-call-ratio/) | Put volume divided by call volume on options on the VIX index, as published by Cboe. | A low ratio means heavy call buying, which usually reflects demand to hedge against market declines. |
| [VIX Term Structure](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/vix-term-structure/) | The relationship between expected S&P 500 volatility over different horizons, such as the VIX (30 days) against VIX9D, VIX3M and VIX6M. | A ratio below 1 means the curve slopes upward, the normal state in calm markets. |
| [VIX1Y](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/vix1y/) | The Cboe 1-Year Volatility Index, an estimate of expected S&P 500 volatility over roughly the next year, derived from SPX option prices using the same variance-based method as the VIX applied to longer-dated options. | It shows how much volatility options traders expect over a year. |
| [VIX3M](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/vix3m/) | The Cboe 3-Month Volatility Index, an estimate of expected S&P 500 volatility over roughly the next three months, derived from SPX option prices with the same variance-based method as the VIX. | It is used mostly in comparison with the VIX: the VIX above VIX3M signals an inverted term structure, which happens in stress, and the VIX well below it a calm market. |
| [VIX6M](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/vix6m/) | The Cboe 6-Month Volatility Index, an estimate of expected S&P 500 volatility over roughly the next six months, derived from SPX option prices with the same variance-based method as the VIX. | It reflects medium-term volatility expectations and is compared with the VIX and VIX3M to describe the shape of the curve. |
| [VIX9D](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/vix9d/) | The Cboe 9-Day Volatility Index, an estimate of expected S&P 500 volatility over roughly the next nine days, derived from SPX option prices with the same method as the VIX. | It reacts quickly to near-term events such as data releases and meetings. |
| [Volatility Skew](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/volatility-skew/) | The pattern of implied volatility across strike prices for options on the same underlying and expiry. | A steeper downward slope means options traders pay more for downside protection than for upside. |
| [VVIX](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/vvix/) | The Cboe VVIX Index, which measures the expected volatility of the 30-day forward price of the VIX, computed from VIX option prices using the VIX methodology. | A higher VVIX means traders expect larger swings in the VIX itself, so more uncertainty about volatility, while a lower value means the VIX is expected to be stable. |

Each row is the opening sentence of that indicator's own definition and reading, so the table says exactly what the profile says.






## Guides in This Category



- [CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/cboe-volatility-index/)
- [SKEW Index (SKEW)](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/skew-index/)
- [Total Put/Call Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/sentiment/total-put-call-ratio/)





## What limits do Sentiment indicators share?

Sentiment extremes mark conditions, not dates: a market can stay crowded for months while the move continues, so every indicator here is context for other evidence rather than a trigger on its own. Surveys sample only the people who answer them and the AAII panel is a self-selected group of individual investors, positioning reports arrive with a lag and margin debt is published monthly, and the option-based measures reflect hedging demand as much as expectation, so a high put-call ratio can mean fear or a well-hedged book. Composites inherit their components' weights, which are editorial choices.

## Frequently Asked Questions

What is a sentiment indicator?

A sentiment indicator is a measure of investor expectations inferred from option prices, surveys or positioning data rather than from the price of the asset itself. The VIX, the AAII survey and margin debt are examples from each source, and most are read contrarily at extremes on the reasoning that a crowded view leaves fewer participants to extend it.

Are sentiment indicators contrarian?

Most are read that way: extreme optimism means buyers are already committed and extreme pessimism means sellers are, so the next large move is more likely against the crowd. The qualification is that extremes can persist for months, which is why the indicators describe how much room a move has left rather than when it turns.

What does the VIX term structure show?

The VIX term structure is the set of VIX-style indexes at different horizons, from 9 days through 3 months to 1 year. Normally the longer horizons are higher, a shape called contango, because uncertainty grows with time. When the 9-day or 1-month VIX rises above the 3-month, the curve is in backwardation, which marks acute stress and has coincided with most major lows.

How is the Commitments of Traders report used as a sentiment indicator?

The CFTC's weekly report breaks futures open interest down by trader class: commercial hedgers, large speculators and small traders, with asset managers and leveraged funds separated in the disaggregated version. Commercial hedgers tend to be most net long at price lows and large speculators most net long at highs, so an extreme net position for either class is read as a contrarian signal against the speculators.


      



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