---
title: "Macro & Cross-Asset Indicators"
description: "Macro and cross-asset indicators: what they have in common, how to choose one, an at-a-glance table of the guides and the limits these indicators share."
canonical: https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/
source: "Swoopr Investment: https://www.getswoopr.com"
---

## Direct Answer



Translate macro or cross-asset data into investable market context.





      


# Macro & Cross-Asset Indicators



> Macro and cross-asset indicators turn economic data and the relationship between asset classes into a reading of the market regime: financial conditions indexes, the slope and inversion of the yield curve, credit spreads, the dollar, liquidity proxies built from the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, and ratios such as copper to gold or stocks to bonds. They describe the environment a portfolio is in rather than any single security.

## What do Macro & Cross-Asset indicators have in common?

Every indicator in this category answers a regime question: is money easy or tight, is growth expected to accelerate or slow, is risk being rewarded or punished across assets? The raw material is public: the Federal Reserve's weekly balance sheet, the Treasury's general account, reverse repo balances, Treasury and corporate yields, the trade-weighted dollar, commodity prices, survey diffusion indexes from the ISM and the BLS, and the prices of broad stock and bond indexes.

The category divides into four groups. Financial conditions measures (the Chicago Fed NFCI, the Goldman Sachs index, the commercial paper spread, investment-grade and high-yield spreads) summarize how easily credit flows. Liquidity proxies (net liquidity, global dollar liquidity, the global liquidity proxy) subtract the balances that drain reserves from the Fed's assets to estimate the cash available to markets.

Expectation measures (yield curve inversion depth and duration, breakeven inflation, inflation swaps, real rate sensitivity, the economic surprise index, earnings revision breadth, ISM new orders minus inventories, the payroll diffusion index) read growth and inflation expectations from prices and surveys. Cross-asset ratios (copper to gold, oil to gold, gold to silver, commodities to equities, stocks to bonds, the stock-bond correlation, the dollar-commodity correlation) compare two markets whose relative price has historically tracked the cycle.

What they share is a low frequency and a long lead: most update weekly or monthly, their signals are measured in quarters, and they are used to set the risk level of a portfolio rather than to time an entry. They also share the problem that the relationships they rely on are regime-dependent: the stock-bond correlation was negative for two decades and turned positive when inflation returned, and a ratio that led the cycle in one era can lag it in the next.

## How do you choose a Macro & Cross-Asset indicator?

- Start from the decision the reading will inform: portfolio risk level (financial conditions, liquidity), sector and duration tilts (yield curve, breakevens, real rates) or commodity and currency exposure (the cross-asset ratios)
- Prefer a published composite from a central bank (the Chicago Fed NFCI) over a hand-built one when the aim is to compare today with history, since the composite has a consistent method back to the 1970s
- For liquidity, read the net liquidity proxy for the U.S. and the global dollar measure for emerging-market and commodity exposure; they can diverge for months
- Treat the copper-gold and oil-gold ratios as growth-expectation reads that need confirmation from the yield curve, since each commodity has its own supply story
- Check the stock-bond correlation before relying on bonds as a hedge; the ratios and the hedge both assume a sign that has changed within living memory

## Macro & Cross-Asset indicators at a glance

| Indicator | What it measures | How it is read |
| --- | --- | --- |
| [Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/trade-weighted-u-s-dollar-index/) | An index of the U.S. | A rising index means the dollar is strengthening against trading partners, which tends to tighten global financial conditions and lower dollar-priced commodity prices. |
| [Financial Conditions Index](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/financial-conditions-index/) | A composite measure of how easy or tight it is to borrow and invest, built from interest rates, credit spreads, equity prices, exchange rates and volatility. | Rising values mean tighter conditions that tend to restrain growth, while falling values mean easing. |
| [Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index/) | A weekly index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago that summarizes U.S. | Positive values signal financial conditions tighter than the historical average and negative values looser than average. |
| [Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/goldman-sachs-financial-conditions-index/) | A proprietary financial conditions index from Goldman Sachs that combines interest rates, the exchange rate, credit spreads and equity valuations, with weights based on the estimated effect of each on economic growth. | A rising index means tighter conditions, which the model associates with a drag on future growth, and a falling index means easing. |
| [Net Liquidity Proxy](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/net-liquidity-proxy/) | A common market shorthand for the reserves available to the financial system, calculated as the Federal Reserve's balance sheet minus the Treasury General Account and the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility balances. | A rising proxy is read as more reserves in the banking system and a falling proxy as less. |
| [Commercial Paper Spread](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/commercial-paper-spread/) | The yield on short-term commercial paper minus the yield on a Treasury bill of the same term, commonly 3 months. | Wider spreads indicate higher demand for safe assets or concern about issuer credit, with funding strain when the gap widens sharply. |
| [High-Yield Spread](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/high-yield-spread/) | The extra yield that below-investment-grade corporate bonds pay over comparable Treasuries. | Wider spreads indicate that investors demand more compensation for default and liquidity risk, typically during stress or a weak growth outlook; tight spreads indicate strong risk appetite. |
| [Investment-Grade Spread](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/investment-grade-spread/) | The extra yield that investment-grade corporate bonds pay over Treasuries. | Widening spreads mean investors want more compensation for corporate credit risk, often as growth worries rise, and tightening spreads indicate confidence. |
| [Copper/Gold Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/copper-gold-ratio/) | The price of copper divided by the price of gold. | A rising ratio is commonly associated with improving growth expectations and a falling ratio with risk aversion or weaker industrial demand. |
| [Gold/Silver Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/gold-silver-ratio/) | The price of gold divided by the price of silver, showing how many ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold. | A rising ratio means gold is outperforming silver, which often happens when safe-haven demand outweighs industrial demand; a falling ratio means silver is outperforming. |
| [Oil/Gold Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/oil-gold-ratio/) | The price of crude oil divided by the price of gold. | A rising ratio means oil is outperforming gold, consistent with stronger growth or supply tightness, and a falling ratio is consistent with weaker demand or safe-haven buying. |
| [Equity/Bond Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/equity-bond-ratio/) | The level of an equity index divided by the level of a bond index, usually on a total-return basis. | A rising ratio means stocks are outperforming bonds, typical of risk-on, growth-friendly periods, and a falling ratio means bonds are outperforming. |
| [Stock/Bond Correlation](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/stock-bond-correlation/) | The rolling correlation between stock returns and bond returns. | A negative correlation means bonds have offset equity losses and diversified a portfolio; a positive correlation, as in inflation-driven regimes, means bonds provided less protection. |
| [Commodity/Equity Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/commodity-equity-ratio/) | The level of a broad commodity index divided by the level of an equity index. | A rising ratio means commodities are outperforming stocks, as in inflationary or supply-constrained periods; a falling ratio means stocks are outperforming. |
| [Dollar/Commodity Correlation](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/dollar-commodity-correlation/) | The rolling correlation between returns on the U.S. | A negative correlation near -1 means a stronger dollar tends to accompany lower commodity prices; a value near zero means the two move independently. |
| [Real Rate Sensitivity](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/real-rate-sensitivity/) | How strongly an asset's returns respond to changes in real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates, usually measured as the regression beta of asset returns on changes in the 10-year TIPS yield. | A negative beta means the asset tends to fall when real yields rise, as with long-duration growth assets or gold, and a positive beta means it benefits. |
| [Yield Curve Inversion Depth](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/yield-curve-inversion-depth/) | How negative a yield curve spread becomes during an inversion: the largest shortfall of the long yield below the short yield during the episode, typically in basis points using the 10-year minus 2-year or 10-year minus 3-month spread. | A deeper inversion indicates that the market expects larger future cuts in short rates, a stronger pricing of slowdown risk. |
| [Yield Curve Inversion Duration](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/yield-curve-inversion-duration/) | How long a yield curve spread stays negative: the length of time between the point at which the spread first falls below zero and the point at which it returns to zero or above, measured in days or months. | A longer inversion means the market has expected lower short rates for an extended period, and a sustained inversion is generally seen as a stronger signal than a brief dip below zero. |
| [Breakeven Inflation](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/breakeven-inflation/) | The yield gap between a nominal Treasury and an inflation-protected Treasury (TIPS) of the same maturity. | A rising breakeven suggests higher priced-in inflation or stronger demand for inflation protection; a falling one suggests the reverse. |
| [Inflation Swap Rate](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/inflation-swap-rate/) | The fixed rate on a zero-coupon inflation swap that makes the contract worth zero at inception. | A higher inflation swap rate means the market prices more inflation over the horizon. |
| [ISM New Orders Minus Inventories](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/ism-new-orders-minus-inventories/) | The ISM Manufacturing New Orders index minus the ISM Manufacturing Inventories index. | A positive and rising difference suggests demand is outrunning stock levels, which can precede stronger production. |
| [Economic Surprise Index](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/economic-surprise-index/) | A measure of how much economic data releases come in above or below consensus forecasts. | Positive values mean data has been beating forecasts on net and negative values mean it has been missing. |
| [Payroll Diffusion Index](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/payroll-diffusion-index/) | A measure of how widespread job growth is across industries: the share of industries adding jobs, counting unchanged industries as half. | A value above 50 means more industries are adding than shedding jobs, so job growth is broad; below 50 means job losses are more widespread. |
| [Corporate Profit Margin Cycle](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/corporate-profit-margin-cycle/) | The rise and fall of aggregate corporate profit margins over the business cycle. | A margin well above its average suggests peak-cycle conditions with room for compression from wages, input costs or competition, while a margin well below average indicates a trough with possible recovery. |
| [Earnings Revision Breadth](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/earnings-revision-breadth/) | The balance of analysts raising versus lowering their earnings estimates, as a share of all estimates. | Positive breadth means analysts are on net raising estimates, which is often associated with improving fundamentals and supportive momentum. |
| [Global Liquidity Proxy](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/global-liquidity-proxy/) | A rough measure of the monetary support available to global markets, commonly the combined balance sheets of major central banks converted to a common currency, sometimes with broad money added. | A rising total is often read as supportive for risk assets and a falling one as a headwind, since central-bank asset growth adds reserves. |
| [Global Dollar Liquidity](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/global-dollar-liquidity/) | A broad idea of how plentiful U.S. | Faster growth in dollar credit and a narrow cross-currency basis are commonly read as easy dollar liquidity; slowing credit and a widening basis point to scarcity, which tends to pressure non-U.S. |
| [Cross-Asset Volatility Composite](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/cross-asset-volatility-composite/) | A combined measure of implied volatility across asset classes, formed by standardizing indexes such as equity (VIX), rates (MOVE) and currency volatility and averaging them. | A high composite means volatility is elevated across several markets at once, a broader sign of stress than any single index; a low composite shows calm. |

Each row is the opening sentence of that indicator's own definition and reading, so the table says exactly what the profile says.






## Guides in This Category



- [Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/trade-weighted-u-s-dollar-index/)
- [Financial Conditions Index](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/financial-conditions-index/)
- [Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index/)
- [Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/goldman-sachs-financial-conditions-index/)
- [Net Liquidity Proxy](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/net-liquidity-proxy/)
- [Commercial Paper Spread](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/commercial-paper-spread/)
- [High-Yield Spread](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/high-yield-spread/)
- [Investment-Grade Spread](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/investment-grade-spread/)
- [Copper/Gold Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/copper-gold-ratio/)
- [Gold/Silver Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/gold-silver-ratio/)
- [Oil/Gold Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/oil-gold-ratio/)
- [Equity/Bond Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/equity-bond-ratio/)
- [Stock/Bond Correlation](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/stock-bond-correlation/)
- [Commodity/Equity Ratio](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/commodity-equity-ratio/)
- [Dollar/Commodity Correlation](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/dollar-commodity-correlation/)
- [Real Rate Sensitivity](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/real-rate-sensitivity/)
- [Yield Curve Inversion Depth](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/yield-curve-inversion-depth/)
- [Yield Curve Inversion Duration](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/yield-curve-inversion-duration/)
- [Breakeven Inflation](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/breakeven-inflation/)
- [Inflation Swap Rate](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/inflation-swap-rate/)
- [ISM New Orders Minus Inventories](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/ism-new-orders-minus-inventories/)
- [Economic Surprise Index](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/economic-surprise-index/)
- [Payroll Diffusion Index](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/payroll-diffusion-index/)
- [Corporate Profit Margin Cycle](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/corporate-profit-margin-cycle/)
- [Earnings Revision Breadth](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/earnings-revision-breadth/)
- [Global Liquidity Proxy](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/global-liquidity-proxy/)
- [Global Dollar Liquidity](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/global-dollar-liquidity/)
- [Cross-Asset Volatility Composite](https://www.getswoopr.com/indicators/macro-and-cross-asset/cross-asset-volatility-composite/)





## What limits do Macro & Cross-Asset indicators share?

Macro indicators move slowly and their signals arrive in quarters, so they cannot time an entry, and the relationships they encode are regime-dependent: the stock-bond correlation, the dollar-commodity link and the lead of the yield curve have all changed sign or length within the available history. Composite indexes depend on their weights and their component list, which is why two financial conditions indexes can disagree, and the liquidity proxies are accounting identities whose link to asset prices is an argument rather than a law. Survey diffusion indexes measure breadth of change, not size, so a reading of 55 says more firms reported growth, not how much.

## Frequently Asked Questions

What is a financial conditions index?

A financial conditions index combines measures of credit spreads, interest rates, equity prices, volatility and leverage into one series that reads above or below its long-run average. The Chicago Fed's NFCI is the most widely used public version, with weekly values back to 1971; a positive reading means conditions are tighter than average and a negative reading means looser.

What is net liquidity?

Net liquidity is an estimate of the reserves available to the banking system and markets, computed as the Federal Reserve's total assets minus the Treasury General Account minus the balance in the overnight reverse repo facility. The two subtractions are balances that drain reserves from banks, so a rising figure means more cash in the system even if the Fed's balance sheet is flat.

Why does the copper-gold ratio matter to stock investors?

Copper is priced on industrial demand and gold on the demand for a store of value, so their ratio tends to rise when growth expectations improve and fall when they deteriorate. It has tracked the 10-year Treasury yield closely over long stretches, which is why it is read as a market-based growth expectation, though each metal's own supply story can break the link for a year or more.

What is the stock-bond correlation and why does it change?

The stock-bond correlation is the rolling correlation between stock and Treasury returns. It was negative for most of the two decades after 2000, when growth shocks dominated and bonds rose as stocks fell, and turned positive when inflation shocks dominated in 2022 and both fell together. The sign depends on whether growth or inflation is the market's main uncertainty, which is why it is tracked rather than assumed.





[Swoopr Editorial Team](https://www.getswoopr.com/authors/swoopr-editorial-team/) produces independent investment education and research content.



Corrections: [corrections policy](https://www.getswoopr.com/legal/corrections-policy/). Standards: [editorial standards](https://www.getswoopr.com/legal/editorial-policy/).