--- title: "How to Read the U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services" description: "How to read the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services: what it measures, how to interpret the headline versus consensus expectations." canonical: https://www.getswoopr.com/economic-releases/trade-and-international-commerce/u-s-international-trade-in-goods-and-services/ source: "Swoopr Investment: https://www.getswoopr.com" --- ## Direct Answer > The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services is a monthly release from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau. The monthly report measures U.S. exports and imports of goods and services between U.S. residents and residents of other countries. Goods on a Census basis come from U.S. Customs and Border Protection documents. Services statistics rest on quarterly, annual and benchmark surveys and on monthly government and private sector reports, with monthly figures interpolated where no monthly source exists. # How to Read the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services ## What is the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services? The monthly report measures U.S. exports and imports of goods and services between U.S. residents and residents of other countries. Goods on a Census basis come from U.S. Customs and Border Protection documents. Services statistics rest on quarterly, annual and benchmark surveys and on monthly government and private sector reports, with monthly figures interpolated where no monthly source exists. The headline balance is on a balance of payments basis, which differs from the Census basis used for goods in the advance report. BEA applies balance of payments adjustments to the Census-basis figures. Statistics are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for price changes. **Production facts:** - **Publisher:** U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau - **Frequency:** Monthly - **Typical release time:** 8:30 a.m. ET on the dates in the BEA release schedule - **Primary metric:** Trade balance - **Market sensitivity:** High - **Data type:** Hard data - **Economic indicator type:** Coincident - **Revision risk:** Medium ## Key components to watch The headline (Trade balance) is the most widely quoted but rarely the most informative number. The components that follow reveal whether the headline result is broad-based or concentrated, improving or deteriorating, and consistent with prior trends. - Exports of goods - Imports of goods - Exports of services - Imports of services - Goods balance - Services balance For any release with multiple components, the investor's task is not to memorize every number but to identify which components are most relevant to the current investment thesis and track those with the most care. ## How to read the headline: actual versus expected Markets react to the gap between the published Trade balance and the consensus forecast, not to the level alone. A stronger-than-expected or weaker-than-expected result is defined against that forecast, so check what was expected before reading the number. The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services carries medium revision risk: Each month the prior month is revised; after that, a month is revised again only when fuller source data arrive in March, June, September and December. Read any revision to the prior period together with the new figure. ## Market impact by asset class The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services primarily affects the following markets: Stocks, Treasuries, USD, Industrials, Transports, Commodities. **Stronger than expected result:** In an inflation-elevated, tightening environment, a stronger result typically pressures interest-rate-sensitive assets and can strengthen the dollar. In a growth-slowing environment, a stronger result can be equity-supportive if it reduces recession fears. **Weaker than expected result:** In a growth-concern environment, a weaker result may reinforce concerns about economic deceleration. If the Fed is watching this specific indicator for policy calibration, a persistent pattern of below-consensus results may shift the rate path. **In-line result:** In-line results typically produce muted market reactions unless there are significant component deviations from expectations. The market had already priced the consensus, so confirmation requires little repricing. ## Revision risk and methodology notes The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services carries **medium revision risk**. Each month the prior month is revised; after that, a month is revised again only when fuller source data arrive in March, June, September and December. Each June, historical data are revised for new source data, definitions and recalculated seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted months are also forced to equal annual totals in the January and December releases. Primary source: [U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). Publisher documents read for this page: - [U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: International Trade in Goods and Services](https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services) - [U.S. Census Bureau: Current U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (FT900)](https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/index.html) ## Common investor mistakes - **Reacting to the headline without checking the components.** The headline can diverge significantly from the underlying trend revealed by the components. A headline beat driven by a volatile component may not indicate the same strength as a broad-based improvement. - **Ignoring revisions to prior periods.** An initial strong number revised down in the following release tells a different story than a number that stands firm. - **Not knowing what is consensus-priced.** Reacting to a number without knowing what was already expected conflates information with noise. The market reaction is driven by the deviation from expectations, not by the level of the number. - **Applying the same interpretation across different regimes.** The same headline result has different implications depending on the Fed's current stance, the growth trend, and what is already priced into the yield curve and equity multiples. ## Related releases The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services should be read alongside: - U.S. Trade Balance - Advance Economic Indicators Report - Advance Goods Trade Balance - U.S. Current Account - U.S. International Investment Position ## Frequently asked questions What is the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services? The monthly report measures U.S. exports and imports of goods and services between U.S. residents and residents of other countries. Goods on a Census basis come from U.S. Customs and Border Protection documents. Services statistics rest on quarterly, annual and benchmark surveys and on monthly government and private sector reports, with monthly figures interpolated where no monthly source exists. It is published monthly by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau. When is the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services released? The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services is released by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau on a monthly schedule: 8:30 a.m. ET on the dates in the BEA release schedule. Exact dates are on the publisher's release calendar. How does the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services affect markets? The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services primarily affects Stocks, Treasuries, USD, Industrials. Its typical market sensitivity is rated High. A result that comes in stronger than consensus expectations generally moves affected markets directionally, while a weaker result can have the opposite effect. The direction depends on the current macro regime and what is already priced into markets. What is the revision risk for the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services? The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services carries medium revision risk. Each month the prior month is revised; after that, a month is revised again only when fuller source data arrive in March, June, September and December. Each June, historical data are revised for new source data, definitions and recalculated seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted months are also forced to equal annual totals in the January and December releases. **[Swoopr Editorial Team](https://www.getswoopr.com/authors/swoopr-editorial-team/)** The Swoopr Editorial Team produces independent investment education content. Our research and editorial process is described in our [editorial policy](https://www.getswoopr.com/legal/editorial-policy/). 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