--- title: "Fed Dot Plot" description: "How to read the Fed Dot Plot: what it measures, how to interpret the headline versus consensus expectations, and how it affects Treasuries, Stocks." canonical: https://www.getswoopr.com/economic-releases/federal-reserve-and-monetary-policy/fed-dot-plot/ source: "Swoopr Investment: https://www.getswoopr.com" --- ## Direct Answer > The Fed Dot Plot is a quarterly release from Federal Reserve Board. The dot plot is a figure in the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections. Each dot is one participant's judgment of the appropriate midpoint of the target range, or the target level, for the federal funds rate at the end of a given year and over the longer run. The figure counts participants at each rate level. # Fed Dot Plot ## What is the Fed Dot Plot? The dot plot is a figure in the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections. Each dot is one participant's judgment of the appropriate midpoint of the target range, or the target level, for the federal funds rate at the end of a given year and over the longer run. The figure counts participants at each rate level. Each dot rests on that participant's own assessment of appropriate monetary policy, which the Fed defines as the path the participant deems most likely to foster outcomes that satisfy the statutory mandate. The median in the projection table is the middle projection when all are arranged from lowest to highest. **Production facts:** - **Publisher:** Federal Reserve Board - **Frequency:** Quarterly - **Typical release time:** 2:00 p.m. ET at the March, June, September and December FOMC meetings - **Primary metric:** Participant policy-rate projections - **Market sensitivity:** Very High - **Data type:** Hard data - **Economic indicator type:** Leading - **Revision risk:** Low ## Key components to watch The headline (Participant policy-rate projections) is the most widely quoted but rarely the most informative number. The components that follow reveal whether the headline result is broad-based or concentrated, improving or deteriorating, and consistent with prior trends. - Projected rate at the end of the current year - Projected rate at the end of later years - Longer-run projected rate - Number of participants at each rate level For any release with multiple components, the investor's task is not to memorize every number but to identify which components are most relevant to the current investment thesis and track those with the most care. ## How to read the headline: actual versus expected Markets react to the gap between the published Participant policy-rate projections and the consensus forecast, not to the level alone. A stronger-than-expected or weaker-than-expected result is defined against that forecast, so check what was expected before reading the number. The Fed Dot Plot carries low revision risk, so the figure published at release is the one to compare with the forecast and with the previous period. ## Market impact by asset class The Fed Dot Plot primarily affects the following markets: Treasuries, Stocks, Fed funds futures, USD, Gold, Credit. **Stronger than expected result:** In an inflation-elevated, tightening environment, a stronger result typically pressures interest-rate-sensitive assets and can strengthen the dollar. In a growth-slowing environment, a stronger result can be equity-supportive if it reduces recession fears. **Weaker than expected result:** In a growth-concern environment, a weaker result may reinforce concerns about economic deceleration. If the Fed is watching this specific indicator for policy calibration, a persistent pattern of below-consensus results may shift the rate path. **In-line result:** In-line results typically produce muted market reactions unless there are significant component deviations from expectations. The market had already priced the consensus, so confirmation requires little repricing. ## Revision risk and methodology notes The Fed Dot Plot carries **low revision risk**. Participants submit projections in conjunction with each FOMC meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections, marked with an asterisk on the meeting calendar page. The September 2026 projection table carries a June projection row beneath each variable for comparison. Primary source: [Federal Reserve Board: Fed Dot Plot](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm). Publisher documents read for this page: - [Federal Reserve Board: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm) - [Federal Reserve Board: Meeting calendars and information](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) ## Common investor mistakes - **Reacting to the headline without checking the components.** The headline can diverge significantly from the underlying trend revealed by the components. A headline beat driven by a volatile component may not indicate the same strength as a broad-based improvement. - **Ignoring revisions to prior periods.** An initial strong number revised down in the following release tells a different story than a number that stands firm. - **Not knowing what is consensus-priced.** Reacting to a number without knowing what was already expected conflates information with noise. The market reaction is driven by the deviation from expectations, not by the level of the number. - **Applying the same interpretation across different regimes.** The same headline result has different implications depending on the Fed's current stance, the growth trend, and what is already priced into the yield curve and equity multiples. ## Related releases The Fed Dot Plot should be read alongside: - Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - FOMC Statement - FOMC Press Conference - Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) - FOMC Minutes ## Frequently asked questions What is the Fed Dot Plot? The dot plot is a figure in the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections. Each dot is one participant's judgment of the appropriate midpoint of the target range, or the target level, for the federal funds rate at the end of a given year and over the longer run. The figure counts participants at each rate level. It is published quarterly by Federal Reserve Board. When is the Fed Dot Plot released? The Fed Dot Plot is released by Federal Reserve Board on a quarterly schedule: 2:00 p.m. ET at the March, June, September and December FOMC meetings. Exact dates are on the publisher's release calendar. How does the Fed Dot Plot affect markets? The Fed Dot Plot primarily affects Treasuries, Stocks, Fed funds futures, USD. Its typical market sensitivity is rated Very High. A result that comes in stronger than consensus expectations generally moves affected markets directionally, while a weaker result can have the opposite effect. The direction depends on the current macro regime and what is already priced into markets. What is the revision risk for the Fed Dot Plot? The Fed Dot Plot carries low revision risk. Participants submit projections in conjunction with each FOMC meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections, marked with an asterisk on the meeting calendar page. The September 2026 projection table carries a June projection row beneath each variable for comparison. **[Swoopr Editorial Team](https://www.getswoopr.com/authors/swoopr-editorial-team/)** The Swoopr Editorial Team produces independent investment education content. Our research and editorial process is described in our [editorial policy](https://www.getswoopr.com/legal/editorial-policy/). Errors and corrections: [corrections policy](https://www.getswoopr.com/legal/corrections-policy/).